The Edmonton Oilers have a lot of work to do over the course of this offseason, but perhaps headlining the proceedings is the contract status of RFA Evan Bouchard. On top of his ascending impact as a player, the cap hit that Bouchard and the Oilers agree to will have ramifications on the Oilers salary cap, both this season and into the future.
Without much knowledge of Bouchard’s specific contract demands, we can still outline the pros and cons to the various approaches available to the Oilers in these upcoming negotiations. The general premise, broadly, is whether to “bridge” Bouchard at a lower cap hit, or to extend him long term, which would carry a higher cap hit.
While other options are technically possible, given Bouchard’s lack of leverage, without arbitration rights, and the rarity of an offer sheet made by another team in the NHL, a bridge deal or long term deal are by far the most likely options. Under this premise we can investigate the collateral of each approach.
Long term pros
Some recent history looms over the negotiations: the Oilers approach to Darnell Nurse over the years. Bridged twice, Nurse was in as strong a negotiating position as he could be coming off of a career season in 2020–21. Ultimately, this resulted in Nurse commanding a hefty cap hit, one that many Oilers fans are bemoaning already. While Nurse is a great player and an integral part of the Oilers on and off the ice, his $9.25M cap hit is hardly a bargain. The lesson to take from how the Nurse situation unfolded is to commit to good players long term while leverage is still in the team’s favour.
By this logic, it’s easy to see why extending Bouchard long term at this point is a fairly straightforward option. Sure, Bouchard had something of a coming out party in this years playoffs, but this was merely the continuation of a progression that the highly touted offensive defenceman has undergone the past three seasons as a member of the Oilers. The offensive ability has always been evident, but Bouchard has proven that he can be relied upon in top minutes.
Long term cons
Bouchard might never be seen as a truly complete defenceman. Despite his size, Bouchard is not a physically intimidating player, nor is he a shutdown option like his partner Mattias Ekholm. While his offensive explosion after being placed on the top power play unit was, to an extent, expected, the shine might be blinding us to the fact that Bouchard will never offer more.
In other words, Bouchard’s playoff exploits might have temporarily raised his leverage. While all across Oil Country are united in their excitement of Bouchard’s success and hoping for continued growth, that might not be in the cards. The question might boil down to whether or not Bouchard needs a partner as strong as Ekholm to handle top minutes.
Naturally, any long term deal would likely require a higher cap hit than a short deal would. With the usually conservative forecasting of the cap still projecting a drastic rise to the cap after years of stagnation from the COVID-19 pandemic, a long term approach to signing would not take this into account.
While the longevity of Bouchard might be of little concern, the Oilers have two seasons left with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl under contract. Over the course of these two seasons, while the cap remains relatively flat, every dollar is crucial in building a team that maximises the superstar duo, effectively the Oilers Cup window.
It is likely that a long term Bouchard deal would involve offloading contracts to make room. While some of the Oilers contracts might be worth moving on from regardless, any significant signings or upgrades become almost impossible. Signing Bouchard to a long term deal, almost certainly above a $6M cap hit, means that two players making more than $2M might have to be shipped out.
Short term pros
Inversely, signing Bouchard to a short term bridge deal would open up more flexibility in the present. The Oilers would be in a position to keep more of their current roster, if not upgrade it, with more room. Instead of adding sweeteners to cap dump deals, the Oilers might instead be able to reinforce.
After a two- or three-year deal, Bouchard would have more leverage in terms of arbitration rights, but would still be under team control as an RFA. While the bridge approach does kick the can down the road, the Oilers would not be giving up much future leverage.
Short term cons
As the cap rises, so too will the dollar amount based on equal player contributions. In short, a long term deal for Bouchard, two or three seasons from now would be more expensive by inflation alone. This also doesn’t consider that Bouchard’s star does not continue to rise. Perhaps Bouchard can continue to grow defensively and is capable of pushing for a Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenceman.
Assuming a long term deal for Bouchard would be eight years no matter which season it was signed, bridging Bouchard now would result in a higher cap hit from two or three years in the future to 10 or 11 years from now. Though it is such a long way off we know certain things to be true, that this elevated cap hit will be in place when McDavid and/or Draisaitl are ready to sign new deals.
Charting a course
Based on the pros and cons of each option, it makes a lot of sense to bridge Bouchard this summer. At first glance it might seem the opposite, Bouchard is a great young player, a clear and simple reason to extend as long term as possible.
Given the circumstances, though, between the league wide realities of the cap and its forecast, as well as the specifics of the Oilers situation, in need of every dollar of cap space in a critical moment of their Cup window, the equation changes.
It certainly helps that the Oilers will still have a degree of control after this bridge deal. Ultimately, that might be the point where Bouchard cashes in on a long term deal, ending in his early 30s. Of course, a lot can change between now and then.
It makes a lot of sense that the Oilers are reported to be leaning into a bridge deal for Bouchard this summer, as the flexibility it provides outweighs the cost. There might still be some risk, that Bouchard is just scratching the surface of his abilities and will catapult himself into a higher stratosphere of pay altogether, but that would be a fantastic problem for the Oilers to have, and one that they still have a lot of time to prepare for.
As fans, without control over the situation, it makes sense for some anxieties to present themselves. Some might be tempted to plot out an elegant projection for the next half decade. While a plan is needed the concept of future assets, or green bananas as it were, is the luxury that must be exchanged to achieve victory in the present. In a league where every game, every play, every bounce of the puck, can make or break an era, it does require all involved to be fully focused on the present if the goal is a championship.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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