Without NHL hockey, all eyes have been on Milan for the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Games. Connor McDavid and team Canada finished the qualifying round as the top seed going into the quarterfinals, while Germany finished second in their group, and head into the play-in round. While unlikely, there is still a world where we see a Germany versus Canada Olympic final, and have Leon Draisaitl take on Connor McDavid for the gold medal. Here’s what would need to happen:
The pathway for Team Canada to the gold medal match
Canada’s pathway is much easier than nearly any team’s. Their first game will be the winner of the Czechia versus Denmark play-in round. The two teams are seeded eighth and ninth respectively, and while smart money would suggest Czechia, it’s hard to rule the Danes out.
Assuming Canada can get through one of the two, they will move into the semis. This round is re-seeded, so they will play the worst of the three other remaining teams. This means that they are guaranteed to not play either The United States or Slovakia in the semis, assuming both make it through. Assuming Canada wins, they would face the winner of the other semifinal in the finals.
The pathway for Germany to the finals at the Olympics
Germany’s path to play Canada in the finals is a little lot tougher. They play France in the play-in round, which should be an easier matchup, but then need to play Slovakia in the quarterfinals if they win. That will be a real test for the Germans. Slovakia beat Finland by a 4–1 score in the first game of the tournament, and put three goals past Sweden in a loss to win their group.
Let’s say Germany makes it through Slovakia to the quarterfinals, they will need some help. Because of the reseeding, the top team, Canada, plays the lowest seed remaining. Germany being the sixth seed would need one other upset in the quarterfinals to avoid playing Canada in the semis. That would likely mean seeing Sweden beat the United States in their quarterfinal match. This is not a likely outcome, but’s possible. The only quarterfinal upset that wouldn’t help Germany would be if fifth seed Switzerland advanced and beat Finland in their matchup.
Let’s assume Sweden beat the United States and Germany beat Slovakia. Germany would then play in the semis against Finland, which would again be a major challenge. Canada would also have to get through Sweden in their own semi. Assuming Germany and Canada both won, we could see a Germany Canada final, and a Leon Draisaitl versus Connor McDavid final match in a gold medal game.
Is a Canada versus Germany final likely?
A Canada versus Germany final is about as likely as Lance Stroll winning a Formula one race this year, which is to say, highly unlikely. Wilder things have happened in sports though, from Leicester City winning the English Premier League to the Toronto Raptors winning the World Championships. It is very possible to see a Canada Germany final next Sunday night.
Despite it being unlikely, it would be fantastic hockey to see two of the greatest players in the world go head-to-head in an Olympic finals. With a few Oilers left off the roster for baffling reasons, it would be nice to see one of the two come home with the gold, and both come home with medals. The game would likely go Canada’s way, but for Oilers fans, this would be the best possible outcome.
