One of the biggest issues for the Edmonton Oilers this season has been the revolving door of the third line. The top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, and Zach Hyman has been set in stone since Hyman’s return from injury, and it’s been one of the best lines in hockey.
Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin have anchored the second line through a number of wingers, most notably Jack Roslovic and Matt Savoie, although Kasperi Kapanen has recently taken that spot.
The third line has been the team’s weakness. A major reason why Edmonton lost last year’s Stanley Cup Final is their inability to counter the Panthers’ dominant third line. Almost every forward from Quinn Hutson to Adam Henrique and everyone in-between has been tried. However, Oilers Coach Kris Knoblauch might have struck gold with a recent creation of Isaac Howard-Jack Roslovic-Matthew Savoie. Could this line be a solution, or is it a flash in the pan?
They can be the solution
If you’re going to believe that Howard-Roslovic-Savoie is the solution, one of the strongest data points is in the numbers. Although they’ve only played 70:58 minutes as a trio at 5v5, they control play at an impressive rate. A 53.79 CF% is only bested by the big line of Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-Hyman (who sit at 56.66%).
Howard-Roslovic-Savoie also excel at tilting the ice in terms of shots, with a sparkling 60.56 ShotsFor%, the best rate of any Oilers line to play at least 70 minutes together this season. These stats aren’t entirely emblematic of performance, but it tends to be the case that when the fancy stats are good, the on-ice production is good as well. Both ShotsFor and ChancesFor are good indicators of a line that’s effective at controlling puck possession and pace of play, and you need your third line to be an effective unit 5v5, which this line has been.
The playstyles of Howard, Roslovic, and Savoie also mesh well on the ice. Roslovic and Howard are more offensively oriented, while Savoie is the defensive conscience. Roslovic is usually most comfortable carrying the puck into the zone, Howard works best to get open in the zone for shooting opportunities, and Savoie is the forechecker who hunts pucks.
It’s not hard to see why the line has begun to find some chemistry. The Oilers top two lines are so effective because they mesh play-styles well: McDavid carries the puck while Nuge navigates the zone and Hyman goes to the net; Podkolzin hunts pucks for Draisaitl and then works to get open for scoring chances.
Some important concerns about this line
The one negative stat for Howard-Roslovic-Savoie has been their inability to score. Their 48.84% GF and three goals for, three goals against shows a bit of a finishing problem. However, the fact they’re able to control play at such an impressive pace, and have begun to show chemistry is worth keeping the trio together.
Although the emergence of Howard-Roslovic-Savoie has been a big benefit for the Oilers, there are a couple of concerns that are worth keeping in mind for the bigger picture. Firstly, Jack Roslovic isn’t a true centre. He’s played the position before sure, but Roslovic usually looks more comfortable and plays better as a winger. Relying on Roslovic to become a dependable third line centre isn’t necessarily a terrible idea, but it’s also not exactly a surefire plan.
If the line continues to produce and play well, then maybe the Oilers can ride Roslovic at third line centre and crucially, keep Nugent-Hopkins on the first line with McDavid and Hyman. However, if Roslovic begin to struggle, the Oilers will be forced to make a decision on Nuge’s position.
Nugent-Hopkins has proven he’s more than capable of anchoring the 3C position, but if you pull him off the top line then who plays with McDavid and Hyman? Maybe you give Howard a shot with the big guns and keep Savoie and Roslovic with Nuge on the third line. If Howard doesn’t work out though, then you have the issue of not having one-third of your top line settled before playoff time. If Nugent-Hopkins goes to the third line, then Edmonton needs to possibly acquire a winger. If he stays on the top line, the Oilers might need to acquire a third line centre even if Roslovic continues to play well. It might be best to have Roslovic play at his strongest position and get another centre anyways.
Is Howard-Roslovic-Savoie a solid line?
Overall, I think the Oilers should keep Howard-Roslovic-Savoie together for now. The line has proven to be effective at 5v5 and continues to build some chemistry. It’s a found money line for a team that has been desperately searching for a solution in the middle-six.
Until you see any major cracks, I would be remiss to make a move. In fact, for Howard and Savoie I think it’s beneficial for those players to succeed against third line competition as another step of their development.
However, I do think that if the line seems to be faltering, Edmonton should find a more permanent solution. As we discussed earlier, Florida’s third line was able to outplay the Oilers last summer and it was a major reason why they won the Cup. Hopefully Edmonton has found a similar combination that can continue to play well in the run-up to the playoffs, and a potential third crack at the Stanley Cup Final.
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