The Edmonton Oilers committed heavily to Trent Frederic with the belief that his combination of size, edge and playoff utility would translate into meaningful bottom-six value.
Instead, barely months into an eight-year commitment, the organization is confronting a far more uncomfortable question of whether Frederic has reached the point where a healthy scratch is justified and also necessary.
And how does a win-now team manage a long-term contract like Frederic’s that is already trending in the wrong direction?
Trent Frederic’s contract context raises the stakes
Frederic’s eight-year, $30.8M deal immediately placed him under a microscope. Long-term contracts for bottom-six forwards are inherently risky, and the Oilers doubled down after already spending assets to acquire him at the deadline.
The expectation originally was that Frederic would reliably provide forechecking pressure and assume some defensive responsibility while holding his own territorially. At this cap hit and term, replacement-level play is not sufficient, and the Oilers need surplus value in the margins.
So far, that value simply has not materialized.
Frederic’s on-ice results have been among the worst in the league
Through the opening portion of the 2025–26 season, Frederic’s raw production has been minimal, but the deeper concern lies beneath the box score. His on-ice results have consistently trended negative, placing him near the bottom of the league in overall impact metrics.
Through 36 games this season, Frederic has recorded just three points while carrying a minus-nine goal differential. On its own, that is disappointing. In context, it’s far more concerning.
Per HockeyStatCards’ net rating model, Frederic currently ranks as the sixth-worst player in the entire NHL this season, posting a -6.8 net rating. That ranking places him at the bottom of the Oilers roster and among the worst regular contributors league-wide in terms of overall impact.
This metric incorporates offensive contribution, defensive results and on-ice goal differential. In other words, it reflects exactly the type of value Frederic was brought in to provide, and he has been failing across all areas.
When Frederic is on the ice, the Oilers are being outscored and outplayed at a rate that is difficult to ignore. Shot share, goal differential and net impact data all point in the same direction that his minutes might be actively harmful. That’s a major issue for a team that relies heavily on winning its depth minutes to support elite top-end talent.
This is not a case of bad luck masking strong underlying play. That much is safe to say.
Reduced usage signals a loss of trust
The coaching staff’s deployment also tells its own story. Frederic has steadily slid down the lineup, now occupying a fourth-line role with limited ice time, often hovering around single-digit minutes.
For a player signed through his early thirties, this is a troubling early signal. Frederic’s usage suggests he is no longer viewed as a dependable option even in situations that should suit his skill set.
That raises a fundamental question. If he can’t be trusted in limited minutes, what role is he actually filling?
Injury history explains some, but not all
There is context worth acknowledging. Frederic has dealt with injuries over the past year, and it’s reasonable to ask whether lingering effects have impacted his skating or timing.
However, injuries can explain diminished effectiveness; they do not explain repeated negative impacts or visible lapses in urgency.
The Oilers cannot afford to wait indefinitely for a player to rediscover form when healthier, cheaper options are providing more reliable minutes.
Does a scratch actually help?
A healthy scratch is not a cure-all, but it can serve a purpose. It sends a message internally and also creates an opportunity for a reset. For a player under contract for nearly a decade, it might actually establish that term alone does not guarantee a lineup spot after all.
That said, a single scratch does not solve the larger problem again. The Oilers must determine whether Frederic can realistically rebound into a positive contributor or whether this is an early warning sign of a contract that will age poorly.
Oilers asset management in a win-now window
This is where the situation becomes uncomfortable. Edmonton is in a championship window, and cap efficiency matters. A lot.
If the organization concludes that Frederic’s play is unlikely to rebound meaningfully, difficult conversations will follow, including role reduction or long-term usage adjustments. Or eventually, buyout considerations.
None of those options are ideal. But ignoring the problem is perhaps worse?
Before any long-term decisions are made, the immediate step is that accountability must be visible. Scratching Trent Frederic would not exactly be an overreaction. Might even be said that it would be an acknowledgment of what the tape and numbers are already saying.
For the Oilers, it’s very important to maintain the standards on a team with championship ambitions, even when those standards collide with uncomfortable contract realities.
