When we last did an Oil Check, the Edmonton Oilers were sitting one spot out of the second wild card position and just hovering around the 0.500 mark.
In the last nine games, there has been quite a lot going on, with the team swinging from the lowest of lows (an 8–3 shellacking by the Dallas Stars to start this stretch) to the highest of highs (a 9–4 domination over them again a couple games later). The Oilers went 5–3–1, the best stretch of the season yet, pushing them into the first wild card spot and just one point away from third in the Pacific Division.
Are things finally starting to turn for the team, as they have in previous seasons around this time of year? And perhaps more importantly, will the two trades the Oilers made last Friday be for the better?
Jarry-ng goalie move
Well, after what has been years of Oilers fans begging the team to make a move to get a goaltender, the Oilers fulfilled that wish, acquiring Tristan Jarry from the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The trade was not very well received, however, especially in light of Jarry’s struggles last season, which included him clearing waivers and playing in the AHL.
Jarry has been better than Stuart Skinner this year, posting a 9–3–1 record with a 0.909 save percentage, the best of all three Penguins’ goalies this year.
Last year was also the only year that Jarry had a save percentage under 0.900 in his career, so there is a bit of a track record.
The risk is still there for a goalie who looked potentially washed last year, but that basically is how it goes with midseason goalie trades.
There is also the fact that Skinner was playing his best hockey of the season at the time of the trade as well, posting a 0.911 save percentage in his past six games. Definitely seems like a strange time to trade him.
There is an extra wrinkle reported by Elliotte Friedman that the team essentially lost confidence in Skinner. In that case, making a trade for the sake of making a trade could, in and of itself, help.
The team came out hard in Jarry’s first appearance, beating the Toronto Maple Leafs 6–3. Jarry’s save percentage of 0.893 might not look all that great, but it was brought down by a meaningless goal with 48 seconds left. Without that, you are looking at a 0.926 for the first 59 minutes, which is not too shabby at all.
Adding even more spice to the trade is the fact that the Oilers play Pittsburgh next, meaning we get to see Jarry versus Skinner basically right away. I am sure everyone will keep a calm, even keel head if/when one plays way better than the other and definitely not make sweeping declarations about whether or not the Oilers won or lost that trade.
A Stable top-six
After bemoaning the seemingly endless line shuffling in our last check-in, it appears that the Oilers have now settled on their top six forward lineup.
With both Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins returning from injury, the team has put back together the first line of Hyman, Connor McDavid and Nuge, and they appear to have picked it back up. McDavid has really picked up his game, scoring eight goals (including a hat-trick against the Seattle Kraken) and 19 points in these nine games, while Zach Hyman has potted seven goals (including a hat-trick against the Detroit Red Wings) and nine points. Nuge has also posted nine points in his eight games (no hat-trick for him, though).
The Oilers second line of Vasily Podkolzin, Leon Draisaitl and Matt Savoie have also looked good. Draisaitl has 15 points (and is now just one shy of his 1000 career point), while Podkolzin notched four goals (bringing him to eight on the year, matching his entire season last year) and six points, and Savoie chipping in five points.
Having Savoie and Podkolzin step up is a big help for the Oilers, especially with Jack Roslovic out with an injury. It has allowed the Oilers to not go to the McDrai well as often as they have this season, as evidenced by the fact that both McDavid and Draisaitl had a lower time on ice per game during this stretch than their season average.
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More ups and downs for the team
As mentioned at the beginning of this article, this stretch saw a lot of pendulum swings for the team.
The Oilers lost 8–3 to Dallas in a fashion very reminiscent of the 9–1 loss to Colorado earlier in the month. They then shutout Seattle the next game 4–0 the next game, before being shut out by the Minnesota Wild 1–0 (by a goalie that the Oilers could have drafted). They then slap the crap out of Seattle again, winning 9–4, and then do similar to the Winnipeg Jets when they beat them 6–2 (including three goals in the first eight minutes of the game).
The next game, the Oilers came out flat against Buffalo, going down 3–0 into the third and looking awful. But they managed to make a comeback, scoring a goal just 10 seconds into it and then another one less than two minutes later. The team tied the game on a Connor McDavid goal with less than two seconds left, blowing the roof off of a Rogers and taking all the momentum into overtime…where they promptly lost just 33 seconds in after allowing Alex Tuch all alone in front. Literally a rollercoaster of a game, within a rollercoaster of a stretch of games.
The team bounced back, though, winning the next two games 4–1 and 6–3. The last game against Montreal, however, was not the team’s best effort, and not scoring on a two-minute five-on-three early in the first period came back to bite the team in the butt.
The good news is that every win was a decisive win, while they had two one-goal losses that arguably can be chalked up to getting “goalied.” But the team still has had a Jekyll and Hyde thing going, where you just don’t seem to know which team you are getting on any given night (or even period, in the Buffalo game’s case).
The next eight games
The Oilers have eight games left in 2025, starting with the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, which has gone from the usual “McDavid versus Crosby” reason for being must-see TV to “Jarry versus Skinner” (and also the extra intrigue of whether Draisaitl will score his 1000th point against his former teammate).
The Oilers then play the Boston Bruins, the Minnesota Wild (and the newly acquired Quinn Hughes), Vegas Golden Knights, and the Calgary Flames before Christmas. They pick back up against the Flames after the holiday, followed by the Winnipeg Jets and ending the year with a New Year’s Eve rematch against the Bruins.
Will the new goaltending from Jarry be what kickstarts the Oilers into a more stable game and sees them shoot up the standings? Or will he be more of the same as Skinner and end up being a trade that looks like a waste of 2nd round pick and loss of Brett Kulak? These next eight games won’t actually be determinative, but you can bet the next Oil Check will certainly be taking a look at it.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
