American Thanksgiving is traditionally used as a landmark for the NHL season. Math would seem to back up the idea, as well, creating a vantage point into the rest of the season. Yet nothing is written in stone, and teams will be pressing to become outliers to the rule.
Perhaps, given the bunched-up nature of the current standings, a rising salary cap might serve to buck the trend. Perhaps, too, the Edmonton Oilers are anything but a typical team by their very nature. Between the star power of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl many things are possible, and the back-to-back Western Conference champions are quite proven and experienced.
Let’s take a look at the Oilers through American Thanksgiving to project what the season ahead might hold.
Slow start as usual
As usual, it seems, the Oilers have had their tense moments early in the season. Though their place in the standings has not been flattering, the Oilers are ahead of their usual autumn pace. It goes without saying that the Oilers must produce stronger results.
While it is concerning that their record is beneath their standard, and there are certainly questions about the roster, the Oilers have often found a way to get rolling in the winter. The lineup had its issues in years past as well. Ultimately, seeding does matter, but the Oilers remain focused on their playoff hopes.
Defence is a main concern
While their control of play has diminished from their usual standard, and offence has been more difficult to generate, it is the Oilers’ defensive efforts that are the main concern. On paper, the team’s biggest issue might be the goaltending, the Oilers once again rolling the dice on a known cap value.
Poor defensive play does not help the goalies. Some might argue that weak goals against lead to a demoralized effort. Regardless, the Oilers’ cap structure dictates that it is on the team to elevate the goalies. Unfortunately, many across Oil Country have lost their patience with Stuart Skinner, but he remains the team’s best option.
Rumours of an acquisition continue to swirl. Regardless of who is in net, a better level of defensive play is required. Effort and attention to detail should carry the Oilers to better results on their own, but sometimes changes to the lineup might help as well. The Oilers rank near the bottom of the league in goals against.
If one stat has to change through the rest of the season, the Oilers are best off improving here. Despite a strong overall penalty killing efficiency, the team is allowing a lot of chances. Surprisingly, perhaps, the goaltending at four on five has been fairly strong.
Young forwards adding to the game
The next part of the equation might be on offence. The Oilers have scored near the top of the league, but the results without McDavid and Draisaitl are concerning. The team is generating fewer chances than in the past.
The return of Zach Hyman certainly helps, but the Oilers do have several younger players who should come into their own. As the season progresses, chemistry for new players might allow for some growth as well. In particular, there have been some standouts.
Matthew Savoie seems to have hit the ground running as a legitimate middle-six winger as a rookie. With a season of professional hockey in the AHL under his belt, Savoie will look to replicate the arc of last year. Savoie’s production skyrocketed in the second half of last season. Already, Savoie has started to earn more minutes. If surviving can bloom into thriving, Savoie is poised to give the Oilers a new element.
Meanwhile, Jack Roslovic has been forging a path up the lineup. On pace for the most icetime of his career, Roslovic is in the best situation of his career as well. It should be no surprise that this has yielded the best results of his career under these circumstances. It seems the Oilers have struck gold with Roslovic, adding a top-six winger at a low cost.
Surprising divisional foes
There have been some surprises throughout the Pacific Division. It seems to be a theme around the league, as several younger teams have begun to emerge as potential threats. The balance of power has shifted, at least for the time being, but there might be greater competition for playoff spots than in recent memory.
The Anaheim Ducks loom, with young stars powering a fairly complete roster. The San Jose Sharks are far less complete, but often have the most dynamic player on the ice on a given night. The Seattle Kraken are rejuvenated under a new coach, playing with a defensive structure that the Oilers have yet to.
The Oilers might have the talent to win out over the Kraken, and the roster to outlast the Sharks, but one or both could find a way to be in jostling for seeding until the dying days of the regular season. The Ducks might find themselves clinching home ice in the first round.
Meanwhile, more familiar foes lurk. The Vegas Golden Knights seem to have offset the loss of Alex Pietrangelo nicely, dangerous as ever. The Oilers’ fate of a first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings remains possible, at least on the Kings’ end.
With a PDO amongst the worst in the league, the Oilers should find a way back into the win column more regularly. Doing so will be crucial to avoid the perils of a wild card battle. On top of competing with more teams from the Central Division, the Oilers might face the wrath of a top seed in the first round. The Colorado Avalanche have looked their part as the league’s best team, and might be the only team in the league that can equal the star power of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Cap concerns
Although the main news is the sweetheart deal that McDavid gave the Oilers, the team has made some significant decisions recently. The Oilers were not without unideal contracts prior, but some new company might be inbound. For eyes across Oil Country that are more cap-focused, new fantasy trades follow.
Trent Frederic was injured during his Oilers tenure last season, but his long-term extension has not aged gracefully over the opening months of the season. With the rising cap, the contract is not quite egregious in dollars, but the Oilers will need more consistency over the next several seasons. Perhaps chemistry will be a factor, or the rising temperature of spring hockey. At the same time, a similarly long contract for a bottom-six forward Brandon Tanev might not have aged poorly.
The oft used defence tandem of Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse joins, locked up for a lot of money for a long time. Both will need to be effective if the Oilers are to round into form. Nurse and Walman are impactful players still, but sometimes will fixate on every dollar when analyzing a roster. The Oilers have their share of cap value contracts, so getting the best out of high priced players is vital.
The positive effects of McDavid’s contract kick in next season, but perhaps the opportunity to play on the Oilers will be enticing in its own right. A strong performance this season will increase flexibility and leverage for next season as well.
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Acquisitions to make
The time is now for the Oilers to make their move up the standings. Poor starts in previous seasons set a low bar, but still the team deserves some benefit of the doubt. One might expect that the Oilers will make up some ground, entering the trade deadline as buyers.
As usual, the Oilers have some constraints and are up against the cap ceiling. Still, the team has found ways to add lower cost contributors in the past. Goaltending remains the hot button issue. Acquiring a goalie to compete with Skinner is at least conceivable. The price for a goalie proven and expected to do so emphasizes how much of a cap value Skinner has been. The acquisition cost would be higher than expected, and circumstance would need to conspire to align the opportunity as well.
An unproven option is another path. Either a more proven backup option on a struggling team, or a younger goalie with a bit of experience. More than likely the Oilers will continue to see Calvin Pickard as the better option.
Any true upgrades to the Oilers goaltending are likely to come from beyond this season. Not only from free agency or offseason trades, but also through internal development. With too many goalies in the system, top prospects Simon Jonsson and Nathaniel Day have found playing time hard to come by. Even in the best cases neither is close to an NHL role this season or next, but the process cannot take shape from the press box.
A right handed defenceman to stabilize the third pairing might be considered. Troy Stecher was cast off, in part because of the play of Ty Emberson and Alec Regula. Brett Kulak has underwhelmed after two of his best seasons, but the Oilers will hope that one of Emberson or Regula can really take hold of a spot and help.
With Vasily Podkolzin continuing to show growth, joining Roslovic and Savoie as solid contributors to the top-nine, the Oilers might be less eager to spend on forwards. There are some promising young options in the minors, Isaac Howard, Quinn Hutson, and others might even earn a look in tough times. With so many depth forwards showing flashes, the Oilers might have more than enough to work with up front.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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