Breaking down if Leon Draisaitl’s contract was a bargain for the Edmonton Oilers

Not many words apply to Leon Draisaitl that have not been stated since he signed his extension in September 2024. Originally drafted third overall in 2014, Draisaitl has gone on to sign two contracts with the Edmonton Oilers throughout his career, likely keeping him an Oiler for his entire NHL tenure.

For background, although he was a much maligned general manager, Peter Chiarelli’s greatest success with Edmonton was not only drafting Draisaitl, but also extending him to arguably one of the NHL’s most team-friendly deals. In the summer of 2017, Chiarelli saw great promise in young Draisaitl, inking him to an eight-year, $68M total deal, working out to an $8.5M AAV. This deal not only set Edmonton up for continual success, but distinctly closed off the end of the decade of darkness, emerging with the two-headed powerhouse duo of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Contract value comparison

Compared to other premier players throughout the league, Draisaitl’s ability to produce on his contract far outplays what it was worth. If examining, from the conventional perspective that one point is the contract equivalent of $100,000, Draisaitl far exceeded his contract production level, totaling 819 points during the eight-year contract, which is 139 above expected, equating to $13.9M in surplus value.

With the cap rising significantly since the 2017–18 season, ~27.3%, Draisaitl’s second contract comes in much higher due to the inflation of the cap. However, even though the AAV is $14.0M, the contract still only represents a slight cap total increase of 3.4%, with a steady decline in cap percentage predicted as revenues throughout the NHL continue to increase, driving the salary cap ever upwards. For example, from 2023–24 to 2027–28, the five-year span will see the salary cap climb by $25.5M. In previous years of the salary cap era, it took 13 years for a similar equivalent cap jump.

Adjusting for the inflation of the salary cap increase of 27%, it could be propositioned for Draisaitl to earn this next contract, it is required that he produces one point for the adjusted contract equivalent of $127,000. Therefore, Draisaitl will need to average 110 points per season for this contract to not be determined an overpay.

However, there is another way to look at this contract, and that is percentage total of team points. For example, Draisaitl in this past season netted 106 points, while Edmonton as a team scored 259 goals, equating to Draisaitl generating/being apart of 41% of all Oiler goals during the regular season. Which, at any level, even with the contract increase, is well above the league norm and a value regardless of team.

How does this compare to other superstars

Illustrated above is Draisaitl’s value for both the previous contract and why the second contract is likely to be a bargain for Edmonton. To further conceptualize, I have provided comparative valuations for percentage of team contract extensions for when both Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid signed their latest long-term deals, and, being considered bargains when the ink dried.

Sidney Crosby’s contract was signed five years previous to Draisaitl’s, during a period which neogtiations, and player contracts could be signed for a duration of greater than eight years. For reference, Crosby signed for 12 years, $104.4M, which at the time, was 14.5% of the 2012–13 salary cap, and by the eight-year post extension, was by then 10.7% of the salary cap.

Over the eight years, the salary cap increased by $21.5M, which, when compared to Draisaitl’s second contract, Crosby’s contract will be less valuable than Draisaitl’s. Referring to the graph, the salary cap in the first years of Draisaitl’s new extension is projected to improve by $18M over three years, already reducing his contract portion of the cap by 2%, a figure only expected to dwindle and outpace Crosby’s cap decline. Additionally, acknowledging he struggled with injuries, Draisaitl outpaced Crosby over the first eight years of this contract, with Draisaitl totaling 819 points to Crosby’s 654.

Connor McDavid is the best player in the world, and there is no argument to contradict against. However, it can be provided that although he is the best player, he does not have the best value contract on Edmonton. Signed one year apart, McDavid accumulated a total of $28M against the cap in the seven years both he and Draisaitl were locked in on their first long-term deals.

But is that $28M in value truly the disparity between the two best friends? I argue against this thought, given McDavid totaled more points in the past eight seasons, 115 to be exact, this is only $11.5M in surplus offensive value generated, not even half of the $28M in contract cost.

Additionally, reviewing the cost of salary per total cap percentage, McDavid’s first contract will be less of a deal than Draisaitl’s second, with Draisaitl only accounting for 14.7% in the first year of his new extension, whereas McDavid accounted for above that percentage of the cap for the first six years of his original deal. Likely safe to conclude Draisaitl’s second contract will also be a greater value than McDavid’s next deal, given the rumours swirling that minimum AAV will be $16M.

Was Draisaitl’s contract a bargain?

Although this is hypothetical, it is quite easy to conclude Draisaitl’s low AAV successfully helped the Oilers open, build, and sustain their competitive window. Compared to McDavid and Crosby, two superstar players with historic production and whose first contract deals now look like bargains, Draisaitl sticks out. Although he held the title for best value contract up until the past season, he will likly retain that mantle with Nikita Kucherov, McDavid, and Jack Eichel all expected to get large raises in the not too distant future.

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire