It is a moment of truth for this era of the Edmonton Oilers. The world’s best hockey player is set to be an unrestricted free agent after the 2025–26 season and General Manager Stan Bowman does not want to let that possibility stay alive for much longer. It is one of his priorities to work with Connor McDavid’s camp this offseason to set the framework for this next deal to keep him in Edmonton long-term and solidify the future of this franchise.
We have heard rumblings of what it might end up being. Some suggest that he will take a shorter term to be able to re-up one more time at big money in his career with the cap expected to significantly rise in the coming years. The expected dollar value has fluctuated within a range of millions of dollars.
But without any doubt, whatever deal McDavid signs is going to be one of the most expensive contracts in NHL history. It is almost certainly going to be the highest average annual value ever, surpassing his teammate Leon Draisaitl who currently leads the league with a $14M cap hit. But if he signs for an eight-year term for over $15.5M per season, he will sign the biggest contract in NHL history, overtaking Alexander Ovechkin’s $124M, 13-year deal.
In anticipation of this record-breaking contract, we took to X to ask Oil Country what they think McDavid’s next contract will be.
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A major discount
Given that Draisaitl currently makes $14M per season, it would be extremely unlikely that McDavid would settle on an amount near that, especially given how the cap has risen over the last couple of seasons. The low end of hypothetical possibilities has him signing a deal worth $14.5M to $15.5M. And even that seems low, does it not?
This would still make McDavid the highest-paid player in the league. Until the cap ceiling rises and another star player needs a new contract, that is.
The lower end of this range, $14.5M per season, equals just over 15% of the total cap. A close equivalent would be what Nathan MacKinnon signed back in 2022. An eight-year, $12.6M AAV contract that started at 15.09% of the cap.
With that being the lower end of this range, maybe it isn’t as unrealistic as it appears on the surface level if he were to sign for $15.5M per season, bumping that up to 16% of the cap. This would be closer to, and just above, McDavid’s expiring contract which had an AAV of 15.72% of the cap ceiling on starting.
This may not be an entirely unreasonable range to work in. And a fair amount of fans feel this way as well, finishing a close third in this week’s poll with 22.2% of the vote.
A record setting deal?
This is the range where McDavid could set the record for the largest contract in NHL history. If he were to sign an eight-year extension, that is. If this contract were to be within the $15.6M–$16.5M range, which the most participants in this week’s poll seem to think it will be as it led the poll with 46.3% of the vote, he would (rightfully) reestablish himself as the highest paid player in the league.
In terms of percentage of the cap, this falls in the range of 16.3% at the low end to 17.3% of the current cap ceiling. That would be the second largest contract in terms of percentage of the cap, eclipsing McDavid’s own extension and being behind only Alexander Ovechkin’s monster 13-year deal that started at 16.82% of the cap.
It seems precedent would suggest something along the low-to-mid points of this range, as $16M is a dollar value that had previously been theorized.
A hefty, but justified, price tag
As much as we can hope and dream, it is entirely justified for McDavid to seek a contract with an AAV between $16.6M and $17.5M. This would place him in the range of 17.4–18.3% of the cap ceiling on signing, potentially setting the record depending on how much the cap rises for the following season.
This option finished second in this week’s poll, with 22.9% of voters feeling that McDavid will sign in this range.
It may be higher than any of us want as the Oilers attempt to navigate a difficult cap situation to ice a competitive roster, but it is absolutely worth it for McDavid to ask for and make that amount per season given his status and prestige.
Let’s max this out!
Let’s be realistic here. If Connor McDavid wanted the maximum salary per season, he would deserve every penny of it. Is it likely to actually happen? Not quite. That’s why this was the least chosen option on this week’s poll with 8.8% of the vote.
Any individual player can take up to 20% max of the salary cap, so McDavid could get an AAV as high as $19.1M, off of the cap ceiling in 2025–26. Will he take that much? Doubtful, we have already seen him take less than what he could on his first long-term deal.
This isn’t likely the contract where McDavid will get paid the maximum. Though if the salary cap rises as much as it is expected, it may be better to pay close to the max now and then in a few years that percentage of the cap will drop significantly when the salary cap is pushing $110M.
How much do you think Connor McDavid’s next contract will be? Drop a comment down below!
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
Worth every penny they give him.