It’s officially offseason time around the NHL. With the draft all wrapped up and free agency right around the corner, teams have begun to make some preliminary roster moves. One such case was the Edmonton Oilers officially re-signing Trent Frederic to an eight-year contract, with an average annual value of $3.85M. Frederic’s deal also carries a full no move clause for the first four years, which downgrades into ten-team and twenty-team no-trade lists in the last four years, respectively.
Although it may seem like a bad idea to sign a middle-six forward to such a long deal, especially after his poor playoffs in Edmonton, there is a world where Frederic’s contract ends up aging much better than some think.
Let’s take a closer look at the player and see if we can make the case for Frederic’s contract.
Frederic’s past performance
Although his NHL career began during the 2018–19 season, Frederic didn’t really factor much as a Boston Bruin until 2021–22. 18 points in 60 games that year puts him on the map, and he followed it with a 31 point campaign in 2022–23, and a career best 40 point season in 2023–34. He also scored at least 15 goals in those two years, primarily as a net-front presence, and showed a more physical edge to his game.
At his best, Frederic is a fast, physical winger that can lay the body, and also has the ability to put the puck in the net. Frederic is also only 27, so an eight-year contract guarantees you’ll likely get his peak years of production.
Source: https://benchrates.com/player/240/trent-frederic/contribution
For a team that wishes to get younger and faster, keeping a player like Frederic is a win. He’s a very good complimentary player, and although he’s been a winger so far with the Oilers, Frederic can also play centre and has expressed interest in doing so. Having Frederic gives Edmonton a succession plan at 3C, as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins splits time on the wing, and Adam Henrique ages out of the role.
Frederic also killed penalties during his time in Boston, which gives the Oilers another option to deploy on the penalty kill. He’s also, to put it simply, a tremendous pain to play against. With the Oilers having traded Evander Kane and perhaps moving on from Corey Perry, Frederic brings that element back in spades.
Concerns when it comes to Frederic’s health and cost
Frederic didn’t exactly light the world on fire after arriving in Edmonton. After suffering the dreaded high ankle sprain on February 25 during a game against Toronto, he was only able to suit up for one regular season game in the blue and orange on April h against Los Angeles. After seven minutes of ice-time however, Frederic re-aggravated the injury and sat a further six games before making his playoff debut in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Kings. Frederic very much looked like someone essentially skating on one leg, and although his play slowly improved as the playoffs wore on, his performance was definitely below the expectations many fans had after the trade to Edmonton.
It’s certainly fair to assume that we haven’t seen the best of Trent Frederic in an Oilers uniform. High ankle sprains are notoriously nagging injuries, and typically take six to eight weeks of recovery time, although they can sometimes last for months. Playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs certainly didn’t make his ankle feel any better.
If we take a look at Frederic’s skating stats per NHL EDGE, we can see an obvious drop in speed that can be attributed to this injury. Buying the dip on a player like Frederic is a good move. He’ll have lots of time to heal over the summer and come back to training camp at 100% health.
There is also the concern of Frederic’s contract. $3.85M at eight years for a middle-six forward may seem like a steep cost, especially for a team close to the cap like Edmonton. However, the rise of the salary cap in the next few years will significantly flatten the cap equivalence. Per CapWages, Frederic’s deal currently takes up 4% of the Oilers’ total cap space, and as the cap rises every year, that 4% will continue to reduce and reduce.
Ultimately, Frederic’s deal will be market value for his production, and his contract won’t handcuff the Oilers by any stretch of the imagination. If the Oilers ever needed to move on from Frederic, his full NMC dissapears in Year 5, and at a-then 32-years-old, they could easily trade him.
Overall a net positive for Edmonton
I’m more hopeful on this deal than others. I understand that Frederic had a tough playoff run, but he was clearly playing hurt and deserved more production than he actually received. When healthy, he’s a very good middle-six forward who’s big, solid defensively, and can score. On paper, he’s the exact kind of player you want in your middle-six.
His contract isn’t egregious, and with the rising cap, any concerns about his AAV will vanish. This contract reminds me a bit of the Zach Hyman deal, and although Hyman is better than Frederic, Edmonton once again has the opportunity to hit on a deal involving a fast, physical player who’s capable in his own zone, as well as offensively.
Follow The Oil Rig on social media!
One Comment