After a year-long hiatus, I am glad to be back writing for The Oil Rig and diving into the offseason’s hottest topic: how to construct an optimized lineup that is cap-compliant and better yet, a Stanley Cup contender.
Edmonton, with the recent trade of Evander Kane to Vancouver and the long-term signing of Trent Frederic, currently retains $12.35M in cap space of the projected $95.5M limit for 2025–26. Luckily for teams that have continuously been close to the cap, the cap limit is set to increase substantially within the upcoming years, reaching $104M in 2026–27, $113.5M in 2027–28, and the same in 2028–29.
The current Edmonton lineup
As mentioned, the Oilers currently hold $12.35M in space tied between 12 forwards, six defencemen, and two goalies. As with most NHL teams, above 50% of Edmonton’s salary is directed towards the forward core. However, what Edmonton does differently compared to most teams has been goalie salary percentage. The Oilers only dedicate $3.6M to goalies and that has seemingly drawn the ire of fans as a choice to upgrade after consecutive Stanley Cup Final eliminations.
A few notes of the $12.35M. The roster still includes Viktor Arvidsson, who has one year remaining at $4M AAV, but who has been rumored to be a trade candidate similar to Evander Kane. Additionally, this cap space does not include the impact of both Noah Philp and Evan Bouchard’s new contracts. Furthermore, the roster does not include the possible return of Connor Brown, Corey Perry, Jeff Skinner, Kasperi Kapenen, or John Klingberg, but more to be discussed later.
Forwards: $53.5M total
| Nugent-Hopkins (5.125) | McDavid (12.5) | Hyman (5.5) |
| Podkolzin (1.0) | Draisaitl (14.0) | Arvidsson (4.0) |
| Janmark (1.45) | Henrique (3.0) | Frederic (3.85) |
| Jones (1.0) | Philp (RFA) | Tomasek (1.2) |
Defence: $23.5M total
| Ekholm (6.0) | Bouchard (RFA) |
| Nurse (9.25) | Stecher (0.78) |
| Walman (3.4) | Kulak (2.75) |
Goalies: $3.6M total
| Skinner (2.6) |
| Pickard (1.0) |
Yearly results proposed strategy
As was noted in Stan Bowman’s end-of-year presser, Edmonton needs to get faster and younger to remain competitive, not only for this season but to prove to Connor McDavid that the team is dedicated to fielding a Stanley Cup Champion caliber team. Negotiations are likely already underway as Bowman and Jeff Jackson continue to meet with McDavid’s agent to complete the extension that will hopefully keep him with Edmonton for many foreseeable seasons.
From an underlying metrics perspective, Kris Knoblauch’s system, supported by the high-end superstardom of Draisaitl, McDavid, and Bouchard, provided strong indicators but were not always fully translated into on-ice results. From an analytics view at 5v5, Edmonton controlled both the shot quantity and shot quality, finishing fourth in the NHL in Corsi (54.1%) and third in Expected Goals (XG) (54.5%) during the regular season. The XG metric is supported by Edmonton controlling the front of the net at both ends, finishing first in relative High-Danger Chances % Rate, generating the second most High-Danger chances in the opposing zone, while defensively limiting opponents to 4th lowest High-Danger chances against.
One of Edmonton’s primary problems was finding the back of the net, a problem Jeff Skinner and Arvidsson were supposed to help solve. For example, although the team was third in XG (54.5%), the on-ice results yielded a Goals For Percentage of 18th (49.6%). At 5v5, Edmonton had expected goals of 193 but only tallied 168 whereas defensively, the team allowed 171 goals against but should have only allowed 161. An additional need that has also consistently been highlighted was the goaltending; although the team limited the opposition in chances against to the fourth least in the league, Edmonton goalies gave up the 15th most High-Danger goals against.
All of this supports the following areas to support:
- Finishing winger for Draisaitl
- Upgraded goaltending
- Additional speed and youth into the bottom-six
Moves to remain within cap constraints
Although it was only a one-year audition, trading away Arvidsson is the most likely way that Edmonton can have greater freedom in addressing the above-mentioned issues. Understanding the speculation Edmonton has touched base with Montreal about a possibly Arvidsson for Kirby Dach deal, I believe trading him for a similar Kane deal would yield more aligned with what Edmonton needs rather than the oft-injured Kirby Dach. By trading Arvidsson for a future asset, Edmonton’s projected cap space increases to $16.35M. To replace Arvidsson, consideration is given to Matthew Savoie, the speedy, two-way winger, who logged 19 goals, and 35 assists in the AHL, and only costs a quarter of Arvidsson’s cap.
Evan Bouchard will also command a large contract that will eat into a chunk of the projected cap space. From most sources of speculation, a fair AAV to project is likely in the $9.5M to $11M. For this exercise, $10M will be used, which lowers the projected cap to $6.35M.
Not the only RFA, Noah Philp will be required to be qualified as well by the organization, bringing additional youth and speed into the bottom-six. For this scenario, a cap hit of $0.900M will suffice, bringing the available cap to $5.45M.
Is this good enough? Hypothetical cap moves
Reviewing these needs, how can they be addressed and better improved upon from the current roster of 12 forwards, seven defencemen (including Ty Emberson), and two goalies?
Arguably, the above fourth line could be better suited with Kapenen instead of Max Jones, which could likely be added for $1.25M AAV and continue to bring the blend of physicality and speed. Jones could then be sent down, clearing $1M in space.
After the hypothetical Kapenen re-signing to identify the remaining holes, this leaves $5.25M to pursue the following upgrades of either additional speed in the lineup, going to free agency to sign a higher upside shooter than Savoie, or improving the goaltending tandem.
Bring back aged veterans
For free agent signings, Edmonton could target the likes of one of Perry or Brown at $1.5M to $2.0M AAV, which would then bump either Philp or Tomasek in the press box but does allow to roster 13 forwards and be cap compliant. However, this move would not allow them to bring in any big-name free agents and could only marginally impact the goaltending, requiring a trade.
Target elite snipers
Due to the inflated cap and increased asking prices of players, the $5.45M limit does not allow the likes of Brock Boeser or Nikolaj Ehlers to provide the sniper to ride shotgun with Draisaitl. However, if Edmonton could facilitate an additional trade of Adam Henrique ($3.0M AAV) without salary retention or possibly Brett Kulak ($2.75M AAV), this would allow Edmonton to have $200,000 in cap space with 12 forwards, seven defencemen, and two goalies. If either Boeser or Ehlers could be signed for less than $8.2M AAV, they would be a proven finisher whose style of gameplay would flourish alongside Draisaitl and Podkolzin. By going after the big-name free-agent signing, Edmonton would likely punt on the improvement of goaltending outside of an inseason trade that would require money in and money out.
Improving goaltending
Lastly, the final move with the potential to improve playmaking between the pipes is to trade for the likes of Thatcher Demko, Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen, or Jeremy Swayman as the free-agent market is relatively uninspiring. Likely any deal to be traded for any of the above will require money moved out, given Edmonton only has $5.45M in space. Except for UPL, who only makes $4.75M AAV, a deal will include fan-favourite Calvin Pickard and the $1M AAV likely headed the other way in deals mentioned above.
Edmonton’s overall strategy
Although most individuals will target goaltending as the main function to be improved, Edmonton must remember Skinner is only a 26-year-old goalie. The underlying metrics support that although Edmonton gave up 10 more goals than expected, they underperformed to a greater degree on the offensive side, netting 25 goals under.
Edmonton seemingly has several options to improve the team and different pathways to pursue team improvement. Many pathways could be provided but at least both fans and players alike will begin to get clarification as soon as Free Agency opens on July 1.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
