Here we go again! For the first time in sixteen years and only the second time in 45 years, we’ve got a rematch in the Stanley Cup Final. The defending champion Florida Panthers will take on the returning Edmonton Oilers in a series that is sure to be a classic.
We all know about the talent up front: Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk, Leon Draisaitl, Aleksander Barkov. Howver, in a series full of talented forwards, it’s the defencemen who stand to make a major impact. Let’s compare and contrast both Florida and Edmonton’s defence and see what kind of differences the two teams possess on the back-end.
Florida’s strong defensive presence
Per the Panthers most recent practice, their defence lines up as follows:
| Forsling | Ekblad |
| Mikkola | Jones |
| Schmidt | Kulikov |
Unlike Dallas, whose Esa Lindell-Cody Ceci pairing was able to be exploited by the Oilers, the Panthers possess three strong defensive pairs. The top pairing of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad have a formidable 58.1 xGF% in 185 minutes together this postseason. Both d-men cut an imposing figure, standing at least six feet tall and more than willing to throw their bodies around. Their physical style of play will certainly be something for the Oilers to watch out for, especially if the series goes long.
The second pairing of Nico Mikkola and Seth Jones also have great analytical numbers, with a stellar 60.2 xGF% in 175 minutes together. Another big, physical pairing who aren’t afraid to throw a check or two, Edmonton will need to be aware when they’re on the ice. The Oilers may be able to perhaps target this pairing a bit; Mikkola missed Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final after slamming shoulder first into the end boards, and although he played Game 5 and will be ready to play Game 1 of the Finals, he is likely not at 100%, which could leave the opportunity for Edmonton to exploit this.
Florida’s third pair is more of the same. Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov possess strong numbers, holding a solid 54.7% xGF through 134.4 minutes. Another big, bruising pair, Florida’s entire defence is big, strong, and more than willing to lay the body all over the ice. If the Oilers are going to succeed against this defence corps, they’ll need to take advantage of any missed assignments due to attempts at big hits, or by pulling one man out of position to setup an offensive zone chance.
The Panthers defence relies mainly on their physicality to continue their punishing forecheck. In order to counter this, the Oilers will need to avoid being hemmed into their own zone, as well as counter Florida’s physical play. If Edmonton can succeed at this, they’ll gain opportunities to exploit mismatches and drag the larger, more physical defencemen into deep water, tiring them out and gaining opportunities to strike in the offensive zone.
Edmonton’s defence will need to step up
The Oilers are expected to start Game 1 the same way they finished against Dallas:
| Ekholm | Bouchard |
| Nurse | Kulak |
| Walman | Klingberg |
The return of Mattias Ekholm has been a massive one for Edmonton. Although they made it all the way to the Western Conference Final without him, having Ekholm back in the lineup is massive plus to the Oilers. Although his reunion with Evan Bouchard has been limited to only 10 minutes so far, last season they were elite—a 61.3 xGF% in 407.5 minutes shows how this pairing can tilt their ice in their favor when they’re together. If the Oilers are going to capture their first cup since 1990, they’ll need Ekholm-Bouchard to be elite once again.
Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak have worked well in the past, but this postseason has left something to be desired. A 49.2 xGF in 82.9 minutes isn’t terrible, but it does show that this pairing could use some gelling still. Nurse was elite with Troy Stecher on his right side, but with Ekholm’s return Stecher has been the odd man out. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Stecher return to the lineup if Nurse falters. The lack of a solid second pairing was a big reason why Edmonton lost the Final last year, so if they want to exact revenge on Florida, they’ll need their second pair to keep their heads above water.
The third pairing revelation of Jake Walman and John Klingberg continues to dazzle. In 165.6 minutes, the duo has a 59.6% xGF. A “third pair” that really plays like a second, Walman-Klingberg have truly elevated the Oilers defence corps to an elite unit, with both men capable of transporting the puck up the ice quickly and skillfully, either by skating or with crisp passes. Their success has been key to the Oilers’ defensive zone breakouts that have facilitated so much of their offence. If the Oilers are able to have three pairs that can move the puck quickly and competently, they’ll find themselves at an advantage compared to Florida’s more physical defensive corps.
Overall, the two defensive units showcase two different kinds of hockey. Florida’s defence relies on physicality and winning puck battles, while Edmonton’s defence excels and quickly moving the puck up ice to create the Oilers’ siganture counter-punch offence that has stunned so many teams. Which play style will win out? We’ll need to watch the games to find out. However, I would personaly give the edge to Edmonton. I believe their puck-moving style is more conducive to success than Florida’s, and could give the Panthers fits if they’re able to execute their counter-attacks.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
