After quickly dispatching the Vegas Golden Knights in five games, the Edmonton Oilers found themselves in a fairly unfamiliar situation—they were the first team to advance to the 2025 Western Conference Final and would have to remain on standby until a Central Division champion was crowned.
After a few days of waiting and watching, the Oilers were finally able to lock in on their next opponent, as they watched the Dallas Stars claim their fourth win against the Winnipeg Jets and advance to the final four.
The Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights were tough opponents in their own right, but Dallas will be an entirely different beast. They arguably have the star power to match Edmonton, along with a red-hot goaltender, and a yearning to finally make it over the hump after many close calls. That being said, the Oilers have been playing extremely well and will be the Stars’ toughest matchup to date. This series will likely come down to a few key battles.
Star power: Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl
The Dallas Stars have mostly been the Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz show this postseason. With both players on the ice, the Stars are outscoring their opponent 7–2 at 5v5. Alternatively, without either player on the ice, the Stars are being outscored 9–18. That represents a goal-scoring swing of 55 percent (78% to 33% goal share). Dallas is currently what many believe Edmonton has been for years—carried by their stars (no pun intended). If the Stars’ depth does not begin to contribute more offensively, this may be a very short series.
Alternatively, the Oilers’ depth has been one of their main strengths these playoffs, and frankly a pleasant surprise after a fairly unremarkable regular season. The availability of a re-energized Evander Kane has allowed Edmonton to slot everyone in their correct position, and, along with the elevation of play from the bottom-six forwards, has turned the Oilers into an offensive juggernaut, with the ability to attack teams in waves. As a quick comparison, with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers are outscoring opposition 10–6 at 5v5. Without either, the team is still outscoring their opponents 16–9. Remarkably, at even-strength, the Edmonton Oilers are tilting the ice more when McDavid and Draisaitl are both off the ice than when either is on it.
The health of Miro Heiskanen and Mattias Ekholm
Miro Heiskanen is a top-10 defenceman in the league. When he is healthy, that is. Unfortunately for the Stars, Heiskanen suffered a lower-body injury at the hands of Knights’ forward Mark Stone in late January, missing the final 32 games of the 2024–25 regular season and the first seven games of the playoffs.
Heiskanen was finally reintroduced to the lineup before Game 4 of Round 2, and played 14:52, 18:33, and 23:40 in the final three games of the series. If his health is truly on the upswing, expect those numbers to continue to rise, especially as the Stars try to take away some responsibility from their less capable blueliners (Cody Ceci, Lian Bischel, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Alex Petrovic).
Mattias Ekholm may not be a star the same way Heiskanen is, but he is undoubtedly one of the most prolific defenders on the Edmonton Oilers. Since joining the team in February 2023, he has been one half of a formidable defensive unit with Evan Bouchard, arguably the league’s strongest pairing in that timespan. Brett Kulak has been a serviceable replacement at 5v5 beside Bouchard in Ekholm’s absence, but the penalty kill has struggled (more on that below), and Edmonton could use a veteran presence in key, close-out situations.
The Stuart Skinner versus Jake Oettinger rematch
After Skinner’s tough start in the 2024 playoffs, which saw him being pulled for two games against the Vancouver Canucks, he bounced back remarkably, putting up a .922 SV% and 1.91 GAA in six games against the Stars. He was able to outduel Jake Oettinger, who put up a .907 SV% in the series after coming into it with a .919 SV%.
This postseason has followed a similar script: Skinner struggled early, posting a .810 SV% and 6.11 GAA in his first two games against the Los Angeles Kings, but was able to regain control of the crease after two shutout performances to close out the Knights. That being said, Oettinger has been no slouch this year—he enters the series with a .919 SV% and is tied for most wins of the remaining netminders.
As things stand, Dallas has the decisive goaltending edge in this matchup – from an analytical standpoint Oettinger boasts a 10.39 GSAx, while Skinner has made his way back up to a 0.09 (per Evolving Hockey). If Skinner can continue giving Edmonton quality starts, this series should play out in their favour; Edmonton cannot afford another shaky start from him, especially if Calvin Pickard remains sidelined due to injury.
Special teams will need to be special
Despite their subpar 5v5 performance in these playoffs, Dallas has been able to consistently win games, largely in part due to their stellar special teams. The Stars currently rank third out of the 16 playoff teams in both power play (30.8%) and penalty kill (86.1%) efficiency. Amongst the conference finalists, their power play and penalty kill rank first and third respectively.
Comparatively, the Oilers’ special teams haven’t been nearly as dominant. Their power play and penalty kill rank sixth (25.0%) and 14th (66.7%), respectively, out of the 16 playoff teams, and third and fourth among the four conference finalists. As long as they’re able to continue producing at even strength, Edmonton can afford to maintains its current one-in-four success rate on the man advantage.
Their execution while shorthanded, however, remains a concern and will need to be addressed. For reference, the other conference finalists, Florida, Carolina, and Dallas, rank first, second, and third amongst all 16 playoff teams in penalty kill efficiency. Expect the insertion of Mattias Ekholm partway through the series to go a long way in addressing their penalty kill woes.
A rematch worthy of the Conference Final
The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers have each made three of the past four Conference Finals. Both teams are deep, ripe with experience, and have fallen just short of the ultimate prize. Dallas is a better team than they were last year, but so is Edmonton. When both clubs are playing at their best, there are no other teams in the Western Conference that can compete with them.
Ultimately, it will come down to which team has fewer passengers and can execute better in the crucial areas of the game. Star power, goaltending, and special teams—whichever team wins these key battles will be moving on to the Stanley Cup Final.
My prediction? Edmonton in six.
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