The Edmonton Oilers have advanced to the Western Conference Final for the third time in four years. A five-game victory over the Vegas Golden Knights has avenged Edmonton’s six-game loss from 2022. As the Oilers wait to see whether they’ll travel to Dallas or Winnipeg to begin the next series, an important question has suddenly emerged. When Calvin Pickard is back in full health, which goaltender should remain the starter? Both Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner have made compelling cases to be the #1 goaltender, so let’s take a look at both and try to make the decision ourselves.
The Case For Pickard
As the old saying goes, “dance with the one that brought you.” Calvin Pickard stepped up from Game 3 onwards against Los Angeles and took the Oilers starting job. With Pickard between the pipes, the Oilers won six straight games, and he became just the third Oilers goalie ever to begin a postseason with a 6–0 record (Andy Moog and Grant Fuhr both accomplished the feat in 1983 and 1985 respectively). His .888SV% and 2.84 GAA won’t be garnering any Conn Smythe votes, but Pickard has done the job asked of him and hasn’t lost yet in these playoffs. Per MoneyPuck, his Goals Saved Above Expected sits at -1.0, just under the baseline of 0. This means he’s been making the saves he’s supposed to.
Pickard’s goaltending style isn’t exactly flashy. In terms of fundamentals he’s nothing out of the ordinary. However, he does seem to possess a clutch gene that can’t be taught. In the third period and overtime these playoffs, Pickard has an astounding .962 save percentage per Sportsnet Stats.
He arguably saved Game 2 against the Golden Knights, weathering the Vegas push in the last minutes of regulation and beginnings of OT, allowing the Oilers to settle in and eventually score the game-winner. Pickard has shown he’s capable of making that extra save that, for a team like the Oilers, is often all they need. Playoff hockey is so often won by a team’s goalie bailing them out when they need it, and Pickard has certainly shown he’s capable of that.
How Pickard’s injury will affect things
Pickard’s injury is certainly cause for concern, however. The injury itself isn’t known, and he’s “day-to-day” per Oilers Cosch Kris Knoblauch. It’s believed he suffered the injury in Game 2, where Vegas’ Tomáš Hertl stumbled over Pickard’s left leg, awkwardly pinning it to the ice. Pickard was able to gut out the win, but a 33-year-old goalie dealing with what seems to be a lower-body injury is never something you wish for.
Aside from any injury concerns, it’s possible that Pickard was riding a hot streak. His GAA and SV% weren’t pretty, and although it got the job done, it’s worth wondering if the dam might break.
If he’s healthy, Pickard profiles as a dependable option that the Oilers can certainly turn to, although they may need to keep an eye on his level of play. “Good enough” goaltending only gets you so far, but maybe Pickard can give the hockey world a throwback to a bygone era with stats that don’t dazzle but gameplay that shows why he’s the best option for Edmonton in net.
The case for Pickard relies on faith that his play against Los Angeles and Vegas wasn’t a fluke, and that he can continue to succeed against more talented opposition.
However, Pickard isn’t the only option the Oilers have in the crease.
The Case For Skinner
Before Game 2 of the Vegas series, the case for Stuart Skinner starting playoff games would have been laughed off the internet. Allowing eleven goals in two games against Los Angeles essentially guaranteed his spot on the bench. Due to Pickard’s injury, Skinner was called upon in an attempt to reclaim his starting spot. He didn’t start fantastic, with a 4–3 loss in Game 3with a couple of goals he would probably want back. However, he bounced back in a major way, shutting out the Golden Knights in consecutive games to close out the series and seemingly reassert himself as the Oilers #1 goalie. I will be submitting a Stuart Skinner apology form as a result of these performances.
Skinner’s playoff stats aren’t exactly a Picasso. A career .893SV% and 2.86 GAA in 40 career starts doesn’t exactly scream “playoff starter.” However, he did take the Oilers to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final last season, and although he struggled against Vancouver, he outdueled Jake Oettinger in the Western Conference Final, including a heroic 34 save performance in the clinching Game 6.
In fact, like Pickard, Skinner has shown ability to raise his game when the pressure ratchets up. Per Sportsnet Stats, in closeout games Skinner is a rock solid 5–1, with a .926SV% and 1.97 GAA. Despite a tough overall statistic look, Skinner is certainly capable of stepping up when needed.
Skinner also has more experience in the postseason. As previously mentioned, he was the team’s starter during their run to the Stanley Cup Final, and although he’s had an up and down season, Skinner isn’t without talent. He was nominated for the Calder in his rookie season, a feat that only five goalies in the post-lockout era have accomplished.
Can Skinner handle the pressure?
Skinner also tends to be a streaky goalie, often going on hot and cold spells. Maybe a break on the bench to regroup and get his bearings was just what he needed to once again claim his spot as the Oilers starting goaltender this postseason. The Oilers run a tandem between the pipes for a reason, and back-to-back shutouts could be the catalyst for a Skinner renaissance.
The case for Skinner relies on believing in his recent games and playoff track record. Skinner’s break while Pickard took the reins could be the best thing that ever happened to the young goaltender. He’s still only 26-years-old, and stacking multiple big-time playoff performances will do wonders for his confidence and experience.
Like Pickard, Skinner has proved capable of making the extra save that is often so important when the margins get tight. As the younger and more playoff-proven netminder, he’s certainly got a shot to once again be Edmonton’s starting goalie.
How Edmonton should move forward
I believe the best option for the Oilers is to run a hot-hand approach. Play whichever goalie is the best until they falter, then replace him with the other guy.
For now, the Oilers should go with Stuart Skinner. It would be hard to argue against back-to-back shutouts in November, let alone back-to-back shutouts to eliminate a division rival. For the time being, it’s Skinner’s crease to lose. Unless he proves himself not to be the best option, the best moustache in the NHL should patrol the crease for the Oilers in the Western Conference Final, and hopefully beyond.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
