For the fourth straight year, the Edmonton Oilers find themselves in the Western Conference semi-final. Another series win against Los Angeles has propelled the Oilers into the second round, and they’ll be facing off with another Pacific foe.
The Vegas Golden Knights sent the Oilers home in six games in 2023, en route to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. The Oilers are no doubt looking to avenge that loss and advance to consecutive Conference Final for the first time since the 1991–92 seasons. Vegas is no pushover though, and if the Oilers are looking to continue their playoff run, they’ll need to ensure their recent level of play continues.
Here are three keys to a successful series for Edmonton.
Depth continues to produce
One of the most welcome sights during the Los Angeles series was the return and emergence of Edmonton’s depth. Although Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl clearly led the way, it was the less heralded players who ended up making the difference. Mattias Janmark (three points including the Game 5 winner), Connor Brown (five points against L.A.), Trent Frederic who could actually skate, and the return of healthy Evander Kane proved to be massive difference makers. For the Oilers to advance past Vegas, they’ll need that trend to continue. The big guns will get their points no doubt, but the production Edmonton gets from their depth, the more dangerous they are as a team.
The Golden Knights have depth of their own. Ivan Barbashev, Reilly Smith, Brett Howden, and Tanner Pearson will all present problems for the Oilers if they’re able to play well. Edmonton will need their bottom-six to respond in kind if Vegas’s depth becomes a factor in the series. The last playoff meeting between these two teams saw Edmonton fail to contain the Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault line, and it ultimately cost them the series. The Oilers will need players not named McDavid and Draisaitl to win their minutes to beat the Golden Knights.
There is reason to believe the Oilers depth is a strong suit, however. In the final two games of the Kings series, McDavid and Draisaitl only recorded three assists and no goals. Edmonton is a team that usually goes as far as their stars will take them, so to close out a series with the top guys not lighting it up is a certainly a reason to optimism. They’ll need them against Vegas, but Edmonton’s depth is perhaps underrated, and more importantly, healthy. It is entirely possible that the Oilers have begun to gel at the right time, but to advance past Vegas they’ll need contributions up and down the lineup.
Goaltending gives them a chance
It wasn’t entirely surprising to see Calvin Pickard in net during the Los Angeles series. The Oilers have used both him and Stuart Skinner as a tandem all year in goal. It was surprising, however, to see Pickard take the starting job from Skinner and backstop the Oilers to a series win. The 33-year-old career journeyman has taken the chance offered to him and run with it, and barring a goaltending switch, he’ll be the Oilers starter for this series.
Pickard’s stats against Los Angeles weren’t going to get him Vezina buzz (2.93 GAA, .893SV%), but per MoneyPuck, his Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAX) sits at just -0.9, barely below 0. Pickard made the saves the Oilers needed and more importantly, didn’t make any game-breaking mistakes. He’s not flashy, but he gets the job done, and for a team that can score at will like Edmonton he’s done enough to keep them in the game at critical moments. So long as Pickard can continue to give the Oilers a chance, they’ll have more than a puncher’s chance against the Golden Knights.
In fact, it’s Vegas’s goaltending that may be a cause for concern. Adin Hill had a less than stellar series against Minnesota (2.83 GAA, .880SV%), and his GSAX sits at -2.0, almost double Pickard’s. Hill stoned the Oilers in six games back in 2023, but if he continues this level of play, it could be a very different series. Darcy Kuemper was a Vezina finalist, and the Oilers still managed to score at will against LA. If Hill proves to be unreliable, this would be a massive boost for Edmonton. In the battle of the goalies in this series, Edmonton simply needs Pickard to make the extra save the other guy can’t.
Win the special teams battle
Power plays and penalty kills are an important part of any hockey game, and doubly so in the playoffs. The Oilers will need to succeed on both fronts in order to best Vegas. Edmonton’s vaunted power play started the postseason slow, going 0/5 through the first two games. However, the last four games the power play was 6/9, a massive increase. Despite this slow start, Edmonton’s power play is currently at 38.5%, good for second best in the playoffs. In order to have a successful series, they’ll need to continue to capitalize on their chances on the man-advantage.
The Oilers penalty kill was picked apart early and often by Los Angeles. Edmonton never quite figured out a counter to the Kings’ five-forward configuration. Although the Oilers did rally to only allow three goals in ten power play chances over the last four games of the series, their 60% penalty kill percentage is good for 16th in the postseason. By contrast, Vegas’s penalty kill is a sparkling 92.3% in the playoffs. The Oilers will need their penalty kill to continue it’s stable play, and find a way to break through Vegas’s systems.
Another stat to keep an eye on is the amount of penalties taken. Edmonton currently leads the playoffs in share of penalty minutes taken with 63.33% per MoneyPuck. Vegas’s rate is the third least in the league at 43.33%. It is critical that Edmonton finds a way to stay out of the box and play the majority of their minutes at 5v5. Any unnecessary penalties could get the Oilers into trouble against a Vegas unit that currently boasts a power play% of just 22.2%. This sounds low, but is possibly due for some regression to the mean. Edmonton will need to play disciplined hockey to give themselves the best chance at defeating the Golden Knights.
These three keys present the biggest areas where the Oilers need to succeed. If they can continue to get scoring throughout the lineup, get the extra save from their goaltender, and have a solid power play and penalty kill, the Oilers will give themselves the best chance to advance to the Western Conference Final in back-to-back seasons.
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