Yesterday defenceman Jakob Chychrun of the Washington Capitals signed a beefy new contract, eight years, $72M ($9M AAV).
I’m sure that most hockey fans felt a collective sense of surprise upon hearing this news, and Edmonton Oilers fans may have felt a collective sense of impending terror at what this means for the Oilers and Evan Bouchard. This is the same type of terror one feels when in the gray area just before waking up after a long and devastating visit to the casino. You know something terrible has happened but can’t quite put your finger on what it is.
Is Chychrun worth that price tag?
That nondescript notion we all felt was because, even without taking a look at his stats, we all know Jakob Chychrun has not, up to this point, put up the numbers nor displayed the skill or potential of a $9M defenceman.
By no means whatsoever do I want to slander Chychrun’s abilities too viciously. There is no question that he is a talented player with both offensive ability and potential. He is still only 26-years-old so may be only just entering the prime of his career. The problem is that his most productive season, including this year, was 41 points in 56 games, a 60-point pace. This season he is on pace for 54 points.
A lot of his underlying metrics are less impressive unfortunately. Chychrun does not lead his team in on-ice, 5v5 CF%, SF%, GF%, xGF%, and SCF%. He is actually under 50% in xGF% which is not ideal for playing on a first placed team.
One thing he does do pretty well is score even strength goals. He has the third most 5v5 goals, and the eighth highest SH% among all NHL defencemen over 700 minutes TOI.
In regards to Evan Bouchard
Now let’s look at what this means for Evan Bouchard’s upcoming contract. The 25-year-old will become a restricted free agent at the end of this season. In contrast to Chychrun, Bouchard has put up an 82-point season and is currently on pace for a 64-point season. He has the pleasure of playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both in 5v5 play and on the power play, which undoubtedly inflates his stats, the general consensus is that Bouchard is a better offensively than Chychrun.
When looking at underlying 5v5 stats, Bouchard is ahead of Chychrun in most areas, except for GF% which is, admittedly, probably the most important. Another thing that Chychrun leads Bouchard in is giveaways. This is a known problem in Bouchard’s game, especially recently.
Despite this, points and offensive ability have essentially always controlled what a player will make, it’s the easiest and most definite stat for an agent or GM to point to. Jakob Chychrun signing a $9M AAV contract is another thing that Bouchard’s agent can point to and say, “If Chychrun is getting $9M, Bouchard should be getting $11M.” It helps set the standard pay for a defencemen much higher.
On the other hand, the two best offensive defencmen in the league, Makar and Hughes are making $9M and $7.85M respectively (although Hughes signed his contract before he really broke out).
Before this year I would have put Bouchard around $9.5M, on par with Charles McAvoy, Adam Fox, and Zach Werenski, but considering he was young and on the rise I could see it being as high as $11M, on par with Rasmussen Dahlin and Drew Doughty. Considering the down year Bouchard is having, both offensively and defensively, I would now have predicted his contract to be in the $8M to $9.5M AAV range.
All of a sudden though, with Chychrun signing a nine million AAV contract, does that push Bouchard into the $10M to $11M range?
Changing defencemen salary standards
A standard rule of thumb for contracts is one million for every 10 points a player scores in a year.
Or… at least it was until it was announced that the cap would be going up $25.5M in the next three years.
On January 31, the NHL and NHLPA announced that the cap was estimated to go up $7.5M next year, $8.5M the year after, and $9.5M the year after that. Oilers GM Stan Bowman’s blood pressure probably dropped to almost normal after hearing that news.
Obviously this is huge for the Oilers because they are now so close to the cap ceiling they can change the lightbulbs in the cap fine victorian chandelier without a ladder. I have no idea how they would have fit Draisaitl’s $14M as well as whatever pay increase Bouchard is going to see. Even now the $7.5M extra only just covers Draisaitl’s $5.5M pay increase.
With clever financial work the Oilers should be able to make Draisaitl and Bouchard fit without selling the farm, but what does the cap increase mean for Bouchard’s contract specifically?
Looking at a range of current defencmen’s salaries, from Morgan Rielly’s $7.5M (9.09% of the cap at time of signing) to the highest paid defencmen, Erik Karlson at $11.5M (14.11%). These percentages next year when the cap will be $95.5M will be $8.68M and a whopping $13.47M.
Just as a matter of interest, when the cap will be $113.5M in 2027–28, that 9.09% – 14.11% will be $10.3M – $16M.
It could be the case that, since Chychrun’s contract is for the max eight years, we are already seeing the symptoms of the massive cap increase, this would explain why Chychrun was given such a hefty salary.
Assuming Bouchard sits somewhere in the middle of that, a $10.5M AAV may be what happens. At that number the Oilers will have a difficult time making it work next year without at least one relatively major change. While this seems like a lot, especially considering Bouchard’s down year, this is likely a standard we will have to get used to.
stats from nhl.com, naturalstatrick.com, and moneypuck.com
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
