When you think of the current Edmonton Oilers roster, a few names probably jump to mind. Of course there’s Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the best and arguably second best player in the NHL. There’s fan favourites like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Mattias Ekholm, and new additions like Jake Walman. However, one of the most important names on the roster is undoubtedly Evan Bouchard. The 25-year-old Oakville, Ontario native is currently in his fifth year of professional play, and his place on the roster is a vital one, as he not only plays on the top pair with Ekholm, but also quarterbacks the #1 power play unit.
Bouchard’s contract is also up after this season. Aside from a Connor McDavid extension, Bouchard’s next contract will certainly be at the top of the to-do list for Oilers management this offseason. What should that contract look like? Let’s examine some stats and Bouchard’s current contemporaries to explore what kind of deal he could be signing this summer.
Bouchard’s sparkling stats
Let’s start by being completely honest. Evan Bouchard is one of the best defencemen in the NHL. Since his breakout season in 2021–22, Bouchard has averaged 13 goals and 42 assists a season, and has played the full 82 games in two of those seasons. He is one of the best offensive defencemen on the planet, able to make crisp passes from the blueline or blast his signature “Bouch Bomb” on net with frightening speed and accuracy.
In last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, he set the NHL record for assists in a postseason by a defenceman with 26 in 25 games. 26 in 25 games! His production speaks for itself as one of the league’s premier players. Additionally, he averages 23:30 TOI a night according to NHL.com, the most of any Oilers defenceman. Bouchard also runs the #1 power play unit, and his facilitation on the back-end is absolutely crucial to it’s success. The Oilers depend on Bouchard to do a lot for them, and he consistently meets their ask. Ask yourself what the Oilers defensive unit would be without Evan Bouchard? It’s not a pretty sight.
chart provided via benchrates.com
Bouchard’s best stats aren’t just his goals and assists though. His true value lies in puck possession and transportation. Bouchard is one of the best puck moving defencemen in the NHL. His ability to quickly and competently exit his own zone with control contributes to the Oilers’ transition game, which when firing on all cylinders is one of the most dangerous in the entire league. Bouchard is top five in controlled zone exits and controlled zone entries per Big Head Hockey. Bouchard’s offensive zone time at 5v5 is at 47.4%, placing him in the 98th percentile as per NHL EDGE, Conversely, his defensive zone time at 5v5 is 34.8%, which puts him in the 96th percentile.
Bouchard’s stats, both counting and advanced consistently place him in the upper tier of defencemen in the NHL. He is the engine of the Oilers’ power play, as well as their most dependable minute-muncher on any given night. However, Bouchard’s game is not without criticism. One of the most discussed aspects of his game is his penchent for turnovers. It is true that per MoneyPuck, Bouchard leads Oilers defencemen in turnovers this season with 115, including 62 giveaways in the defensive zone. However, he also leads Oilers defencemen in takeaways, with 42.
I also don’t believe it’s entirely fair to blame Bouchard for such a high amount of turnovers. As the team’s #1 puck moving defenceman, it stands to reason that he would be in possesion of the puck regularly—of course extended puck possession is going to result in a high number of turnovers. Such is the nature of being the primary offensive transporter. Bouchard’s turnovers do tend to be in bigger moments, which is one area of his game it may be good to tone down. Giveaways are inevitable, but more harmless ones would be better received than coughing up the puck at your own blueline.
Comparison to contemporary contracts
When it comes to figuring out the dollars and cents of what a Bouchard extension looks like, it is useful to look at some of his peers in terms of age and production. Defencemen like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Miro Heiskanen represent Bouchard’s age range and comparable stats. From Puckpedia, Hughes is currently paid the least of the four at an average annual value (AAV) of $7.85M, a massive steal for his skill level. Dahlin leads the four in terms of AAV at $11M a season. Makar and Heiskanen sit in the middle at $9M and $8.45M AAV respectively.
These four defencemen offer a good image as to what a potential Bouchard deal looks like. Although it would be incredible to get such an important player at an AAV like Hughes’, it is also incredibly unlikely. I also don’t believe Bouchard will be able to command an AAV like Dahlin’s, as by his standards, he has had a down year. This dip in production is an advantage to the Oilers, who may be able to negotiate Bouchard down from a higher ask. Bouchard’s AAV will also depend on the length of his deal. If he signs a six-year contract, his AAV will be higher, but if he signs an eight-year deal, the AAV will drop slightly on account of the added years.
Whatever Bouchard’s ask is, Edmonton won’t have to worry about being pressed right to the cap. The Oilers are in a position this offseason to shed some dollars. Potentially moving on from an Evander Kane would free up some money that could be placed into other parts of the lineup like a McDavid extension and Bouchard contract. With the salary cap expected to rise to $100M in just a few years, even a more expensive contract for Bouchard now will gradually become less expensive in terms of cap percentage as the years go on. This means the Oilers could reward Bouchard for recent playoff success and bet on his continued growth as their #1 defenceman.
Hypothetical contract for Bouchard
I believe that the Oilers and Bouchard will be able to come to an agreement this summer. Bouchard hasn’t indicated any wish to leave Edmonton, and the Oilers haven’t said anything about moving on from him. In fact, Oilers GM Stan Bowman has defended him from criticism in the media. This all tells me that Bouchard will be signing in Edmonton this summer. As for a potential contract, I think an AAV $8.75M to $10M a season across an eight-year term will be the cost for Bouchard’s services. A down year this season may allow Edmonton to sign him for cheaper than expected.
Whatever the case is, signing a player like Bouchard is imperative to the Oilers’ continued success. He is one of the best and most important players on the team, and will be a critical part of any potential playoff runs the team wishes to go on.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
So you’re saying the Oilers should repeat the blunder they made with Nurse?
Did you ever see Bouchard play?
Bouchard is equivalent to the following players: Denis Potvin / Brian Leetch / Larry Murphy / Ray Bourque (these guys are “all-timers”) – some of the best the league has ever seen. His stats back it up. He’s also a massive part of the Oilers transition game. Does he make mistakes? Sure. But so does Makar, Hughes, Fox (insert your favorite current NHL defenceman here). When you have the puck as often as he does there will be turnovers. Sign him long term – no bridge contract bullshit like they did with Nurse.