With the trade deadline in the rear view, the Edmonton Oilers roster is set. While no outside help will be afforded, the Oilers will still need to improve if they wish to achieve playoff glory. Through coaching, chemistry, and simply digging in, the Oilers will have to find a way to improve in several key areas.
Let’s take a closer look at the five areas the Oilers need to fix and how they might get around to doing so.
Goaltending continues to be an issue
Over the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era the Oilers goaltending has never been popular. The most generous appraisals have often been that their tandems are cost efficient, as Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are. Many are at odds with the philosophical approach here, but plenty of recent Stanley Cup winners have shared a similar approach. Regardless, quality play in net is non-negotiable, requisite of the Oilers aspirations.
Skinner might never threaten for a Vezina Trophy, yet he has built an impressive resume. There are not many active goalies who have won as many playoff games as Skinner, who ranks 12th among the group. All but one are significantly older as well, Jake Oettinger being born the same year. Skinner has one more playoff win than Connor Hellebuyck, and six more than Jacob Markstrom. While many would suggest that the Oilers have the worst goaltending among playoff teams, Skinner deserves some credit for the impressive resume, still just in his third season as an NHLer.
Skinner will need to be at his sharpest. While Skinner might not be able to steal a series, he has consistently proven he can be solid enough to hang around. All goalies will have poor games, but most of Skinner’s prolonged struggles have coincided with the Oilers playing poorly as a team. Though the roster is elite, the Oilers have authored long stretches of subpar play.
Ultimately, even if Skinner plays well enough to give the Oilers a chance, if the team falls to an elite goalie Skinner will be criticized. Pickard seems to have earned the trust of his teammates and coaches to spell in relief situations, but Skinner will carry a heavy burden.
Penalty kill must improve
The Oilers penalty kill ranks 25th in efficiency, simply not good enough. Part of last season’s playoff success was the incredible work of the Oilers penalty kill, virtually perfect on their trip through the Western Conference. The group will need to come together in a similar fashion this season if they wish to surpass their results.
There are some signs that the unit has it in them, as the Oilers seem to rank favourably in expected goals against in shorthanded situations. Again, Skinner will have a big part to play here, but undoubtedly the unit can tighten up.
Defence pairings will have a shakeup
With the addition of Jake Walman the Oilers will have to reconfigure their blueline. Of course, the current absence of Mattias Ekholm does not help matters get settled, though it should be assumed that he and Evan Bouchard will remain partners upon his return.
Given that the Oilers signed John Klingberg midseason, they clearly were in search of more offence from the backend. In some ways this is a vote of confidence to the depth and skill of the group defensively.
The question becomes how to deploy three left shots, Walman along with Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak, and finding the last piece to the puzzle to optimize. Any combination of Nurse, Kulak, and Walman should be effective, a matter of taste and who can best handle playing the weak side. The Oilers will have some time to gauge and build chemistry down the stretch.
The other way to look at it is who the sixth defenceman might be. Ty Emberson has the inside track, having held up nicely as Kulak’s partner most of the season. John Klingberg could figure into the rotation circumstantially, though Emberson plays a key role on the penalty kill. Troy Stecher seems to be pushed into a depth role when the team is at full health. At this point, it seems Emberson has won over his coaches as the main defensive option on the right side.
How to best handle the bottom six
Max Jones is in the lineup and seems typecast as a fourth line option. Like Corey Perry, it is not impossible that Jones can slide up the lineup in a pinch. Still, the real questions surround the expected injury returns of Evander Kane and Trent Frederic. A fully healthy lineup would be overflowing with options, potentially leading to some surprising scratches.
Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson have underproduced by most expectations, while Vasily Podkolzin might be shifted into a deeper role. All three have shown flashes of effectiveness in the top-six, though their hold on these roles are tenuous. On the other hand, it is hard to presume that Kane or Frederic will be outright upgrades. Both will be coming off of long injury layoffs, and have not been a part of this lineup at any point this season.
At the very least the Oilers will have plenty of options for injury replacement or game-to-game adjustments. It seems a bit strange to have Kasperi Kapanen as a centre, as Derek Ryan or Noah Philp could factor back into the lineup if needed. Likewise, Matthew Savoie could be an interesting emergency replacement, but is a long shot.
A break shouldn’t lead to lapses
Perhaps the biggest issue with the Oilers the past couple seasons is their issue with slow starts. While traditionally this might refer to how the team starts games, this appears to materialize as the team struggling for multiple games after some sort of break. The starts of the regular seasons this year and last are well documented, though the beginning of the 2022–23 season was not much better.
The Oilers also started slow in the Stanley Cup Final, losing the first three games of the series. Now with the team having faltered after returning from the 4 Nations Face-off break, the pattern is established and frustrating. This team is good enough to overcome a lot of these lapses, though clearly not quite good enough.
The Oilers have not been overmatched in a series since their loss to the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference final in 2021–22. They have proven themselves as playoff performers, especially McDavid and Draisaitl. They have proven that they are still among the league’s best this season. They have improved at the trade deadline. It is hardly perfect, but the Oilers have more than enough to win it all if they can avoid falling into prolonged lapses.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
