With the season on a pause due to the 4 Nations Face-Off, I wanted to take a brief look into the rest of the Edmonton Oilers schedule. The trade deadline and the playoffs are fast approaching and the Oilers are once more in the thick of the race for the Pacific Division title.
They were oh so close in 2022–23 when they ended the season 17–2–1 but missed out by one point to Vegas (whom they lost to in overtime weeks before the season concluded). Will they finally get a division title in the McDavid era this year? Let’s look at the remaining schedule for the 34–17–4 Edmonton Oilers.
How many games do the Oilers have left?
The Oilers currently have 27 more games left this season. The Oilers have four sets of back-to-backs during that time span. The last time the Oilers will head out East is a date at Madison Square Garden versus the New York Rangers on March 16. Their last road trip will see them play Vegas and the California teams in early April.
The boys will end off the season with three out of their last five at home, and the last game of the year in San Jose. This all is good news for Edmonton who should look to end the season around a record of 19–6–2 to end the season. This will give them a season record of 53–23–6, good for 112 points. You might think that’s super optimistic… but I’ll dive into why I think this can be a realistic outcome based on their strength of schedule.
When the Oilers can clinch a playoff spot
Now when should we expect the Oilers to clinch a spot in the playoffs? In the 2021–22 season, the Oilers clinched a playoff spot in Game 78 against the Colorado Avalanche. The Oilers had 98 points at that time. The final wild card spot in the West went to Nashville who had 97 points.
In 2022–23, the Oilers clinched on April 1 against the Anaheim Ducks in Game 76. The Oilers had 98 points at that point and the final spot in the West went to the Winnipeg Jets who had 95 points.
Last season, the Oilers clinched on April 5 versus the Colorado Avalanche in game 75. The Oilers had 97 points at that time and the final wild card saw Vegas at 98 points.
Right now, the Vancouver Canucks are on pace for 94. Judging by recent data, the Oilers should have clinched a spot by Game 74-ish, since the West wild card is weak right now. The game in question would be April 1 versus the Vegas Golden Knights. Now, remember, things can change.
The Canucks and other sub-wild card teams can lose or win a lot of their upcoming games which would make clinching a spot come earlier or later for the Oilers. But, using the data as what we know right now, sometime during that week when they play Calgary, Vegas and San Jose, the Oilers and their fans should see that “x” next to their name in the standings.
Strength of schedule compared to division rivals
Using Tankathon.com, let’s look at the strength of schedule for the Oilers relative to their divisional rivals. For those who do not know what this is or means, in simple terms, it evaluates how hard or easy a team’s schedule is for the rest of the season. It uses variables such as opponents they play and the number of times they do, the number of games left, home/away games, etc. Being #1 means you have the hardest schedule left while being 32nd means you have the easiest at that point in time. Here’s how the Pacific Division ranks:
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| Seattle Kraken | 2nd |
| San Jose Sharks | 3rd |
| Calgary Flames | 11th |
| Vancouver Canucks | 12th |
| Anaheim Ducks | 15th |
| LA Kings | 20th |
| Edmonton Oilers | 24th |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 25th |
This bodes super well for the Oilers. Even though Vegas has a slightly easier schedule, the fact the Oilers rank top ten in SOS is a good sign that they can claim first in the division. The Oilers see the likes of the Sharks three times, Sabres once, Kraken twice, Flyers once, Canadiens and the Blues once, along with playing their Flame rivals once more.
The Golden Knights have to play the Blackhawks, Predators, Penguins twice and the Bruins, Sabres and Kraken once. So while Vegas has the easier schedule (mostly due to facing weaker bottom 10 teams), the Oilers actually face more bad competition more often. Facing San Jose three more times after they sold Granlund and are going to sell off more assets by the deadline is crucial for Edmonton.
Vegas doesn’t get to play them again. The Oilers have 11 more games left at home and 16 left on the road. Edmonton has a top-five record on the road and home in the league. Vegas has 13 games left on the road while having a 13th-ranked road record, and 13 games left at home. I think Edmonton has the better advantage looking at all the factors here.
Entering the final stretch of the season
I think the Oilers have a good shot at winning the division. With seven games to go before the deadline, including a five-game road trip on the East, it won’t be long until we see the final version of their roster this season to help push for the Cup.
If there is one thing they need to do, however, is win more games in regulation. They’re only at 25 regulation wins while Vegas is at 30. Regulation wins is the first tiebreaker to be used. They need to stop blowing leads (St. Louis and Chicago games) and win before it gets to overtime.
Exciting times ahead, Oilers fans!
