With February underway the 4 Nations Face-off is just around the corner. Always a threat to win a best-on-best tournament, Sweden will ice a fantastic team in this tournament. Let’s take a closer look at the roster and if they have a path to victory.
Forwards
Bratt—Eriksson Ek—Forsberg
Raymond—Pettersson—Nylander
Lindholm—Zibanejad—Kempe
Nyquist—Carlsson—Arvidsson
Injury replacements: Eklund, Backlund
After Canada’s goaltending and Finland’s blueline, the Swedish centre group is among the weaker units of the tournament. While still great players, the bar is raised in this special format. Mika Zibanejad, Elias Pettersson, and Elias Lindholm are having down seasons, while Leo Carlsson finds himself in a sophomore slump. Joel Eriksson Ek is a much needed stabilizer, and his skills at the net front at both ends are appreciated in this lineup.
There is a lot of skill on the wings, led by a trio of forwards that would make any team in this tournament, Filip Forsberg, William Nylander, and Jesper Bratt. Adrian Kempe and Lucas Raymond are nice pieces to fill out the middle six. The Swedes could easily have some of the tournament’s top scorers. Forsberg, Nylander, and Kempe will hope for hot shooting performances, acting as shooting threats in these mock lines.
With William Karlsson ruled out with injury, Mikael Backlund could be the smart add to this lineup. As a centre, Backlund reinforces a weak point with a savvy, stable presence. It does relieve some pressure on Carlsson, who might be in tough to hold up against high end competition. William Eklund is having a breakout season with the San Jose Sharks, and might be worthy of a third line spot on this team outright.
As a winger his role is more redundant, and the club elected to go with veterans Gustav Nyquist and Viktor Arvidsson deport in the lineup. Fabian Zetterlund, Rickard Rakell, and even Simon Holmstrom could be options as well. In all there is a lot for Sweden to work with, but they will need to find some chemistry to have a chance against stronger forward groups in the tournament.
Defence
Forsling—Dahlin
Hedman—Andersson
Ekholm—Karlsson
Brodin
Injury replacements: Larsson, Edvinsson
The strength of the team is the blueline, arguably the best in the tournament. It is somewhat difficult to come up with an unappealing combination within this group, or even to differentiate between a first and third pairing. There is an uneven balance of handedness, meaning that Erik Karlsson and Rasmus Andersson stand out as the two right shots. Karlsson will require a more intentionally defensive partner, and either Mattias Ekholm or Jonas Brodin seems a tailored fit.
Rasmus Dahlin is the most likely to play his weak side, with experience doing so for the Buffalo Sabres. It will be a big stage for Dahlin, who has been deprived of team success in his NHL career despite his talents. Gustav Forsling is narratively the opposite, a waiver claim turned champion. Victor Hedman and Rasmus Andersson round out the group, forming three pairings that can handle any situation on the ice. It will likely be Karlsson and Dahlin who take power play roles, while the rest of the group handles penalty killing duties.
Hampus Lindholm is injured, but the Swedes will have a few notable injury replacement options. Simon Edvinsson is breaking out on the Detroit Red Wings, and will certainly be in the mix in the future. Adam Larsson might make some sense if the Swedes are looking for another right shot. To an extent some thought might be given to Philip Broberg, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Rasmus Sandin, or Marcus Pettersson. Either way defencemen are clearly the strong point of Swedish hockey at the moment.
Goalies
Ullmark (doubtful)
Gustavsson
Ersson
Injury replacements: Soderblom, Wallstedt
Losing Jakob Markstrom to injury hurts, though truly goalie depth is only so relevant. Losing Linus Ullmark would be a significant blow, placing the burden solely upon the back of Filip Gustavsson. That seems to be the case, as a relatively solid position group has withered. Having already turned to Samuel Ersson, Sweden does not have an abundance of options.
Arvid Soderblom should be the choice, and he might even be able to win the backup spot if given the chance. He and Ersson are younger goalies playing behind overmatched NHL teams, and at least present a balance of experience and talent. More established backups like Anton Forsberg or Marcus Hogberg do not exactly inspire much confidence at this level.
In the opposite direction there are some even younger Swedish goalies who have appeared in NHL games this season. Jesper Wallstedt is the most highly touted here, but Dennis Hildeby and Erik Portillo are worth keeping an eye on over the next few years. Perhaps Wallstedt can earn another endorsement, despite the fact that he is blocked from a regular NHL role.
Does Sweden have a chance?
Sweden has some high end position groups in this tournament, some areas of concern, and some unfortunate luck on the injury front. They certainly have a chance to win, but they will need a strong team concept to fight from a disadvantage. The more critical opinion might say that Sweden is closer to Finland than they are to Canada or USA in terms of quality.
Still, all four nations represented have authored their share of upsets under similar circumstances. Sweden is no different, often dominating group stage play in international play. If they are able to make up for their centre depth with solid chemistry, their blueline might help them control play. This is crucial not only to maximize the looks their elite finishers get, but also for easing the burden on their hobbled goalie group.
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