The mid-season resurgence of Stuart Skinner

When building (or rebuilding) a franchise, there are a number of pieces that any GM would simply love to have. First is a star forward who can be leaned on in a clutch, empty-net situation. Another piece is a reliable defenceman who can centre a power play, provide a lethal point shot yet still be a strong defensive and physical presence. Last, but certainly not least, is a star goaltender that you can count on to make a must stop in the dying seconds of Game 7.

The Edmonton Oilers have several key pieces in Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard. This leaves the goalie position to complete the wish list and the Oilers have gone through a number of starting goaltenders in the McDavid era. Since 2015–16, the Oilers starting netminders have included the likes Cam Talbot, Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith, and Jack Campbell.

Edmonton’s current starting netminder, Stuart Skinner, is a local Edmonton product who was forced into the starting role with retirement of Mike Smith and Jack Campbell’s shaky tenure. Playing in his third full season as a starter, Skinner got off to slow start but his strong play as of late raises a question: is he that starting goaltender piece that Edmonton has been looking for?

Skinner’s performance this season

Skinner’s performance in net this season is a tale of two halves. At the time that this statistical analysis was done, he has played in 33 games. In the first 14 games, he gave up three or more goals in 11 contests with an approximate Goals Against Average (GAA) of 3.21. His save percentage across those games was a rough 0.862, giving him a pretty mediocre win-loss record of 6–6–2.

Fast forward to the next 19 games and Skinner’s performance started to hit its stride. For starters, he gave up three or more goals in only seven contests. His GAA drastically improved to approximately 2.2, which is over a goal less than what we have seen from him in the beginning of the season. His save percentage was 0.920 and his record across this portion of games reflected this, an impressive 13–5–1.

As we know, the Oilers’ performance during Skinner’s stunning stretch was remarkable. The team has been playing a strong and resilient brand of hockey, highlighted by depth scoring and come from behind wins against playoff bound teams such as Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild.

However, this does not mean that the defensive performance in front of Skinner has been perfect and his play against the Avalanche is largely what allowed the Oilers to stay in the game long enough for the come back to take place. Let’s give Skinner the credit he deserves.

Another question then arises: how does Skinner’s resurgence compares against the highest paid netminders in the league?

How does Skinner’s peformance compare against other goaltenders?

For this segment, we will compare the play of Stuart Skinner in his last 19 games to that of the goaltenders with the five highest salaries in the league: Igor Shesterkin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman, and Ilya Sorokin.

Before we go any further, here’s a few disclaimers first:

1. GAA calculated here is a rough estimate based on total goals allowed in their last 19 games. The calculation is not mathematically adjusted to account for the goaltender not finish the game (eg. pulled early). This may lead to a slight underestimation, but the effect should be minimal given that only one of the names here was pulled early twice (Shesterkin) and the rest of the names were pulled early only once or not at all.
2. In addition to the above, the calculation does not account for the extra time that the goaltender may have played (ie. overtime).
3. Igor Shesterkin is included on this list however, his new contract will kick in in 2025–26 season.
4. Jeremy Swayman and Ilya Sorokin are tied for the fifth highest salary.

From what we can see, only Hellebuyck has outperformed Skinner, with the Winnipeg Jets fighting for the Presidents’ Trophy. Honourable mention goes to Vasilevskiy for nearly matching Skinner’s stats.

Skinner has quietly gone on to be one of the best goaltenders during this stretch and his performance certainly deserves the praise. Vasilevskiy has also maintained his quality of play, while the play of the other goaltenders can be agreed to be below what is expected from them. This includes Shesterkin, who is due to be the highest paid netminder, yet his team is currently out of the playoff spot.

Is Stuart Skinner the missing piece for the Oilers?

Of course, discussion of the goaltender performance based on 19 games alone does not paint the most complete picture. This is only a snapshot in time and to properly give the goaltender their due, we would have to take into account factors such as play across the full season, individual workload, difficulty of the schedule, and the overall team play.

So what could be said about Skinner? Of course, Skinner is only 26 years old and as commonly observed, goalies can start to hit their peak slightly later than their offensive and defensive counterparts. Of the names included on the above list, Skinner, along with Swayman, is the youngest goaltender and his play in only his third season in the league is truly impressive.

We are not yet done watching the development of Skinner and he will need more time to continue refining his game. However, the turnaround of his play this season has rightfully commanded our attention and if this trend continues down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Oilers may have finally found the final piece to complete the GM wish list.

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Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire