Here we are again. Now 15 games into the season and barely hovering around .500 hockey. The Edmonton Oilers are often underperforming, falling behind, unable to take control of most games, and struggling to compete. Ask any fan and there are any number of reasons why this might be happening, everyone will have a different answer.
And quite frankly, pretty much all of them are correct or at least valid. There have not been many positives thus far. Every time things start to look like they’re turning around, the team stumbles and falls. One step forward, two steps back it seems. With the win against the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night, they’ve taken one more step forward, now it is time to see if they take another step (or two) back in the upcoming week.
This week, we took to Twitter to ask Oilers fans to (try to) pick one thing that stood out as the most disappointing part of the season start. For some, understandably, this was a difficult task.
How can we pick just one when damn near everything is disappointing?
Nevertheless, let’s take a look at what Oil Country feels needs to improve to help the team turn around and stay turned around moving into the next part of the season.
Want to take part in Sunday Census polls? We send them out every week on our Twitter at @oilrigEDM. Follow along or send in ideas for the next poll!
Historic penalty kill, not in a good way
Taking home the trophy as winner of this week’s poll is the penalty kill. The historically bad penalty kill. After 15 games, Edmonton has a 59% penalty kill. Easily the worst in the league. And also one of the lowest team PK percentages in NHL history at this point in the season. In fact, they were only the fourth team in NHL history with a penalty kill below 60% after 14 games.
The team’s performance on the penalty kill is truly one of the biggest things holding them back from more success this season. Edmonton is one of the better performing teams at 5v5 play, but it is the extra goal per game that they give up on the penalty kill that is turning the tables against them each and every game.
What happened? Well, the amount of turnover on the roster sure wouldn’t have helped. Two of the top four penalty killers based on ice time last season are now elsewhere (Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais) and four of the top 10 (with the other two being Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele). Combining this with the team’s overall defensive and goaltending struggles, and the lack of chemistry with ineffective systems that are not working with the team’s play right now is a recipe for disaster.
Skinner and the goaltending
Just like this time last year, the early season goaltending has been nothing short of disappointing. We can’t expect the goalie to completely save and lead the team’s performance, but it is reasonable to expect and hope for the goalie to keep the team in the game and bail them out a little bit once in a while.
With how inconsistent the team’s goaltending has been thus far, 20.6% of the voters chose this as the most disappointing part of the season so far.
So far, they have not gotten that from Stuart Skinner.
According to Moneypuck prior to the game against Vancouver, Skinner was the sixth worst goalie at all strengths in Goals Saved Above Expected with -4.5 in nine games. Even Calvin Pickard, who has sort of been the better option at times this season already, has -1.0 goals saved above expected in six games.
The team’s turnaround will have to start from the back end. Skinner needs to find a way to channel his performance against the Dallas Stars from last season’s playoffs. And soon.
Nuge’s disappearing act
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has generally been one of the most quietly consistent and important part of the Oilers’ roster over the past decade. But this season, he has been nothing short of disappointing. It is tough to see him having disappeared and unable to create offence and struggle to contribute even defensively.
So far, he has just one goal and five assists in 15 games. His points per 60 rate is the lowest of his career. According to Natural Stat Trick prior to the game against the Canucks, at 5v5, his possession numbers were among the worst on the team with a Corsi for percentage below 50%. And his 46% expected goals for percentage was second worst on the team of lineup regulars. Though a sign of how quickly things can turn, one solid game against the Canucks was enough to boost this up to 52%, hopefully meaning good things to come.
He has been open in acknowledging his struggles this season, which we would expect nothing less from him. Nugent-Hopkins knows what it means to be a team in a difficult situation and around players struggling after the turmoil he has gone through in his Oilers career so far. But his struggles are still noteworthy and 16.7% of fans voted that him and the offence are the most disappointing part of the season so far, good for third place in the poll.
Surprise, surprise, Nurse is on this list
He is a regular recipient and target for the struggles of the Edmonton Oilers. And this season, things have not changed at all. Darnell Nurse and his defensive struggles were on this week’s poll, but they actually finished last with just 15.9% of the vote.
This season, he may have some valid reasons for contributions to his struggles. He lost his regular defensive partner in Ceci and has been rotating through a variety of defensive partners, primarily Travis Dermott, Troy Stecher, and Ty Emberson. That in and of itself will be a difficult situation as he can barely get used to one person’s playing style before having it swapped out on him again.
But overall, his play is not helping matters. The Oilers have given up 48 goals so far, and Nurse has been on the ice for 24 of them according to Natural Stat Trick. Although his goals against numbers are quite similar to Mattias Ekholm, Ekholm has had double the amount of goals for while on the ice compared to Nurse. So far, only 12 goals have been scored with Nurse on the ice, giving him the worst goals for differential on the team.
The Oilers are in the market for a right shot top-four defender to (hopefully, finally) solidify this second pairing and make it useable. But until then, we may continue to see Nurse struggle with a rotating cast of defensive partners playing well above their expected place in the lineup.
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
One Comment