Although last night’s win against the Pittsburgh Penguins gives fans a glimmer of hope, the Edmonton Oilers are off to another slow start. There have been glimpses where the team looks unstoppable and others where they look awful. It’s giving… 2023–24 vibes again. But what is the root of the issue and why are they losing so many games?
Sure, the power play isn’t great right now, Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have been questionable at times but good at other points, the scoring depth is non-existent, and guys like Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Viktor Arvidsson lacklustre with their production (up until last night). Most of these you can expect to clear up in the coming weeks.
One angle I want to examine is the shots the Oilers are giving up against 5v5. While they “seem” to be one of the better shot-suppressing teams in the league (ranked fifth in shots against), it’s the quality and amount of scoring chances they’re giving up. Today, I’ll go over three games (Winnipeg, Chicago, and Nashville) as examples where the Oilers lost two, and one where they won and explain why. Remember this is only 5v5.
I want to give a quick shoutout to @NHL_Sid and @PapaNurse on Twitter. NHL_Sid started this shot-tracking project last season and was kind enough to let both PapaNurse and I work alongside him. These stats are coming from this project where we manually track each 5v5 shot attempt and shot on goal (blocked shots do not count). Here are the stats from the games I tracked. (Note: y = Yes, bt = Behind The Net, rr = Royal Road (across the slot in the offensive zone essentially; High Danger Chances come from here typically), r = Rush, ff = Faceoff, f = Forecheck and c = Cycle)
The figure above within the black area shows shots that are considered scoring chances.
Chances the Oilers given up
Against the Jets
Shot Type
Assist Type
Chance
Goal
Odd-ManRush
Screen
Rebound
Tip
r
y
1v0
c
y
r
r
y
c
y
f
y
y
c
y
c
bt
y
c
y
y
r
y
r
bt
y
y
c
y
r
y
y
c
c
c
rr
y
r
rr
y
y
c
r
rr
y
r
rr
y
r
y
r
rr
y
Shot attempts: 42 for Edmonton and 28 for Winnipeg (six of them shot from NZ)
Even though the Oilers seemed to kill the Jets 5v5, they still lost 6–0. The Oilers got killed off the rush against the Jets. Out of the 22 shot attempts (unblocked) and shots that the Jets took within the offensive zone, about half came off the rush and caused two of the three goals the Oilers gave up 5v5. Twelve of those chances were scoring chances and three came off rebounds. Not to mention, Edmonton gave the Jets six(!!!!) RR passing opportunities.
Their defensive game within the slot was horrendous. The one bright spot is that lack of odd-man rushes allowed—they didn’t allow the Jets to get any shots off the faceoff or their strong forecheck, so at least there’s that. The Oilers, however, did seem to let a Jets skater behind the net set up a few scoring plays. All around, a terrible effort by Edmonton. When you look at Chicago… it’s not much better.
Against the Blackhawks
Shot Type
Assist Type
Chance
Goal
Odd-ManRush
Screen
Rebound
Tip
r
y
c
r
y
c
rr
c
y
f
rr
r
y
f
f
ff
y
y
y
y
r
c
y
c
y
r
y
y
r
y
f
bt
y
f
rr
y
f
rr
y
f
y
Shot Attempts: 48 for Edmonton and 21 for Chicago
Again, the Oilers KILLED Chicago 5v5. What was the issue? Well, for one, if you thought the RR passes allowed against Winnipeg were bad, they were equally as bad again against the Hawks. Edmonton allowed four Royal Road passes, 10 scoring chances against, and allowed the Hawks to sustain their forecheck and cycle the puck around a geriatric group.
Some positives are the lack of rebound chances there for the Blackhawks and odd-man rushes. But there seems to be a trend here for Edmonton: dominate 5v5 but get a bit too lackadaisical in their zone leading to the amount of RR and BT chances they give up. Not to mention the fact that like the Jets game, the Oilers allowed THREE power play goals against, could not finish on their chances, and not a single big stop from their goalkeeper. Sounds a lot like 2023–24 huh?This time with the exception that their power play is also stale. So… how did the Oilers fare against the Nashville Predators in their win?
Against the Predators
Shot Type
Assist Type
Chance
Goal
Odd-ManRush
Screen
Rebound
Tip
r
y
1v0
f
y
r
y
c
y
y
y
c
y
c
c
r
y
r
r
r
r
r
c
bt
y
r
c
c
y
r
y
r
c
bt
y
c
y
y
c
y
c
y
y
c
y
ff
y
y
c
y
ff
f
Shot Attempts: 42 for Edmonton and 29 for Nashville
Well well well. Once again, Edmonton outshot the opponent by 5v5. This time they won! Well, how come? First thing first. Notice the total lack of RR/BT shots allowed? The Oilers defended the slot super well this game (which could be because the Predators are an older, slower team that can’t move the puck well). This is also the first instance where more than half of the shots WEREN’T scoring chances! A lot of the Predators’ shots came from the point. Good! Focus on the screens as well. Only three shots were considered at a time when Pickard was screened. Edmonton did a solid job in this regard when it came to pushing guys out of the way. The one Predators goal that came 5v5 was off a beautiful tip by Filip Forsberg. There aren’t any negatives to take away from this game at all.
So what does this mean?
So far, Edmonton is trending as a team where they are out chancing and shooting the opposition when it comes to 5v5 play. The issue lies in the PK, goaltending, and the lack of focus time from time within the zone. The amount of royal rush chances the Oilers gave up in both the Hawks and Jets game is awful and there have been signs of the rush play starting to falter. This can be a system issue or, more likely, a speed/team composition issue.
I’ll be back next week with an in-depth view of the month for the Oilers and see what that sample size tells us about the season thus far, and how it could help us project the future outlook of the campaign.
