Let’s be honest, nobody had this being the way that the Edmonton Oilers would start their season this year before the puck dropped earlier this month. Going into tonight’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Oilers have an abysmal 2–4–1 record and sit seventh in the Pacific Division.
Everyone can point to the laundry list of issues that this team is facing. Zach Hyman has zero points on the year. The power play is running at an awful 10.5%. The team hasn’t found chemistry with its lines, particularly with the lack of consistent linemates for Leon Draisaitl to this point in the year. It’s simply not good enough for a team that’s a heavy contender for the Stanley Cup.
Perhaps what hurts most is the fact that the team looks so lost out on the ice. There was a time when this team had a swagger about them that would radiate from before the puckdrop to well after the team left the ice. The team doesn’t have that this year.
Where did the mojo go?
The team clearly hasn’t had it since the beginning of the season, but there have been little moments of the Oilers not standing up for themselves in key moments and simply falling apart. One that stands out in particular was the way that the Oilers allowed the Calgary Flames’ Rasmus Andersson to walk into the zone, circle around basically unimpeded, find his way to a shooting position with ease and beat Stuart Skinner clean.
While I won’t fault you for not wanting to relive this moment (trust me, I didn’t either), the clear lack of effort on backchecking from Connor McDavid and Hyman in particular on this play was nothing short of pathetic. And with due respect to McDavid, who even on his worst day is still the best player in the league by a good distance, the rest of the team responds from his play. When he’s on, he can put the team on his back, but he hasn’t been on that gear this season.
Look this was one bad play, but what happened after it was worse. The Oilers had all the momentum through the first period of play and completely outplayed and outchanced the Flames. Were it not for two overturned goals, this would have been a different game. But the Oilers let the Flames come back in this game and then let it all go.
The two teams were tied going into the third period, and the Oilers on paper were the far better team. The Flames should not be doing as well as they are with their lineup, but the Oilers got outplayed through the third. When they allowed the go-ahead goal midway through the third, they didn’t push back at all and the Flames got one more less than two minutes later. Simply not enough effort.
Why does Edmonton lose the lead?
This team has crumbled multiple times this season. Look back a couple games to the 4–1 loss to the Dallas Stars. The team was down 1–0 going into the third period and had a couple good looks, but the minute the Stars scored the second goal, the team on the ice simply gave up. Dallas made it 3–0 a minute later and that was the game. Draisaitl got a goal back with a couple minutes later but the team looked out of it and without any fight in them.
The eye test tells you one thing, but the stat line backs it up. According to Hockeyviz.com, when tied, the Oilers have a +11.1% expected goals for (xGF), which means they are generating a good number of chances for, while boasting an unbelievable -33.4% expected goals against (xGA). They simply are a brick wall defensively when they have the lead at 5v5.
However, when they are down a goal, they generate a ton more chances, with a +31.0 xGF, which is expected as they try to push for a goal, but defensively they just fall apart, putting up a crazy +22.5% xGA.
To contextualize these numbers, the Florida Panthers do not put up as stunning of numbers when tied as the Oilers, but when down a goal they have a +58.1% xGF while locking it down with a -24.0% xGA. The Stars are around average when tied, but when down a goal they have a +50.1% xGF and a -17.4% xGA. These are teams that the Oilers faced in the last two rounds of the playoffs last year and will probably end up facing again this year in the playoffs.
There simply is not enough fight in this team when they are down a goal. They are creating chances down a goal, but not nearly enough, and their defensive effort down a goal hasn’t been nearly good enough. The Oilers have been down at least one goal at 5v5 for 137 minutes through seven games. They have only been leading for 84 minutes.
The team has at the very least three elite scorers, and a number of high-end players in their lineup, but have only managed nine 5v5 goals for this season. Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Viktor Arvidsson have combined for zero goals and three assists at 5v5 this year. Simply not enough.
What does this team need?
Last season, it took a 6–3 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes and a team meeting for the Oilers to turn things around. But what really was the emblematic moment that turned it around for the team was this “hang in there” check in on the bench between Draisaitl and McDavid.
It’s the camaraderie and connection between teammates that turned it around for the Oilers. They remembered they were there for each other and began to play as a team for the first time that year. They snapped a brutal three-game losing streak and went 24–3–0 over their next 27 games and rode that momentum right to the Stanley Cup Finals.
The team needs to find that same energy again. Whether it takes the team going out for dinner, a team meeting, an off-camera screaming match, a pep talk from Coach Kris Knoblauch, or simply a miracle, this team needs to figure it out and figure it out fast. It’s hard to believe but we are already nearly 10% the way through the season, and the season goes by fast. For all of our sanity, let’s hope that they do.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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