The Edmonton Oilers had a busy offseason, which hasn’t gone unnoticed. With key signings and re-signings, management seems intent on pushing this roster to the next level. The moves have generated plenty of discussion among fans and analysts, especially as the Oilers currently sit with +850 odds to win the Stanley Cup, tied with the Florida Panthers as the favorites, according to betting platforms.
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Re-signing Key Players: A Solid Foundation or Risky Bet?
Keeping key players was the centerpiece of Edmonton’s summer activity. Notably, they extended Leon Draisaitl, re-signed Adam Henrique, and brought back depth pieces like Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry, and Calvin Pickard.
In theory, keeping the core intact makes sense for a team that went to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Draisaitl’s extension, valued at $14 million annually for eight years, certainly raised eyebrows. But his PuckIQ stats speak for themselves: a 58% Dangerous Fenwick percentage against elite competition at five-on-five.
Adam Henrique, on the other hand, presents an interesting case. The data show a slight dip in his effectiveness against elite opposition, with a 49.5% Dangerous Fenwick percentage, but based on a limited sample size. He excelled in minutes without Connor McDavid on the ice, showcasing his utility as a reliable No. 3 center.
While some might view his $3 million per year contract as a potential risk for a veteran, Henrique’s ability to maintain solid numbers outside the shadow of superstars justifies the deal.
On the lower end, Janmark and Brown returned to solidify their spots in the depth chart. Both players were instrumental in penalty-killing duties during the playoffs, with Brown’s resurgence in scoring as the season progressed offering promising value for the $1 million contract.
New Faces, New Questions
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the Oilers’ offseason was their decision to bring in fresh talent. The signings of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson turned heads, adding a scoring punch to the second line. Skinner’s one-year, $3 million deal appears to be a steal, especially considering his consistent five-on-five production.
Over the past three seasons, he ranked among the top 80 forwards in points per 60 minutes—prime first-line output for what will be second-line duties in Edmonton. Arvidsson, while riskier due to his injury history, adds another layer to the Oilers’ offensive depth. He excelled in goal share (53%) and expected goals percentage (55%) when healthy, proving he still has plenty to offer when given the chance.
But not all signings drew applause from the analytics crowd. The addition of Josh Brown raised eyebrows, with his numbers painting a bleak picture. His 10% deficit in performance relative to his Arizona Coyotes teammates last season doesn’t inspire confidence.
Betting on Potential with PTOs and Depth Signings
Edmonton also brought several players on professional tryouts (PTOs), like Travis Dermott and Mike Hoffman, while signing promising depth players like Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin. Dermott’s versatility on defense and Emberson’s small but encouraging sample with the San Jose Sharks give Edmonton flexibility.
Emberson, in particular, showed promise against elite competition, logging 32% of his minutes against top-tier players. He’ll need to prove his worth on a bigger stage, but early signs are promising.
Podkolzin, once seen as a critical future piece for the Vancouver Canucks, has seen his five-on-five scoring dip year after year. However, Edmonton provides a second chance for the young winger, whose size and speed could translate well if given the right opportunities. It’s a low-risk signing that could pay off, but there’s no denying that Podkolzin’s current trajectory isn’t encouraging.
Final Words
Edmonton’s summer moves reflect a balancing act between short-term gains and long-term risks. The analytics crowd will undoubtedly support key signings like Draisaitl and Skinner while critiquing more questionable decisions like the Josh Brown deal. However, when taken in its entirety, the numbers suggest that Edmonton’s management has improved the team’s depth while giving themselves room to maneuver at the trade deadline.
