Now that things have cooled down somewhat after the heat of the draft, the opening of free agency, and the trade of Ryan McLeod, next up on the to-do list for the Edmonton Oilers is to hire a GM and to work on an extension for Leon Draisaitl.
The 28-year-old is coming off of a 106-point season and entering the last year of the eight-year, $68M contract he signed for the start of the 2017–18 season which carried an AAV of $8.5M. Draisaitl has made Peter Chiarelli, the GM who constructed that contract, look like a genius ever since then. With the exception of the 2017–18 season, Draisaitl has never failed to score over 100 points, or score at a 100-point pace. He now has 850 career points and 347 goals in 719 games played.
It’s. Now or never
Now that Draisaitl is able to be signed, it has been stated, in no uncertain terms, by Draisaitl’s agent Jiri Poner, that they want to see a deal done before the end of the summer.
“There’s no rush yet, but either it happens quickly, i.e., by the end of August, or it doesn’t work out at all; It will also become clear whether Edmonton really wants him or not.” Poner told the German publication Eishockey News.
Despite what sounds like an ultimatum, and ultimatums being decidedly bad for any relationship, Edmonton fans should not be even remotely worried about losing Draisaitl yet as Poner also stated that he is “very confident that there will be an agreement with Edmonton in the end.”
Comparing similar contracts
What does Draisaitl deserve to be paid?
Draisaitl is likely at the tail end of the absolute height of his prime right now. He is still physically fit and now has 10 seasons of experience in the NHL under his belt. The best way to predict what an NHL player will get for money is to look at the past contracts and compare, so here are the top ten contracts among active players in the salary cap era ranked by percentage of the cap in the first year of the contract:
| Name | Cap Hit in Millions | Year | Length | % of Cap Max |
| Alexander Ovechkin | 9.538 | 2008-09 | 13 years | 16.82% |
| Connor McDavid | 12.5 | 2018-19 | 8 years | 15.72% |
| Sidney Crosby | 8.7 | 2008-09 | 5 years | 15.34% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 8.7 | 2009-10 | 5 years | 15.32% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 12.6 | 2023-24 | 8 years | 15.08% |
| Auston Matthews | 13.25 | 2024-25 | 4 years | 15.05% |
| Patrick Kane | 10.5 | 2015-16 | 8 years | 14.71% |
| Artemi Panarin | 11.642857 | 2019-20 | 7 years | 14.29% |
| Erik Karlsson | 11.5 | 19-20 | 8 years | 14.11% |
| John Tavares | 11 | 18-19 | 7 years | 13.84% |
Note that these are the top ten unique players, meaning the list excludes any repeats. Auston Matthews at $11.634M in 2019–20 would also appear ninth on this list if there were repeats, and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin would also reappear at 11th and 12th.
The thing about this list is that there aren’t really any players who scored as many points as Draisaitl has for as long as he has. Alexander Ovechkin, Malkin, and Crosby were scoring at that rate but not on such a large sample size. Crosby suffered injuries that kept him from large portions of several seasons. Ovechkin and Malkin signed their contracts immediately after their three-year entry level contract.
Matthews, Artemi Panarin, and Nathan MacKinnon were all scoring at terrific rates before they signed their deals. MacKinnon scored at over 100-point paces but never actually eclipsed the century mark until after he signed his new deal. Matthews had two 100-point season, and Panarin had none, though was close.
Erik Karlsson was scoring at an incredible pace but is a defenceman so it is hard to compare with Draisaitl. Patrick Kane and John Tavares actually weren’t scoring so prolifically when they signed their deals. Kane went on to have two 100-point season, but Tavares is the only player on the list, including Karlsson, who has never registered a 100-point season. Nice work Kyle Dubas.
What does Draisaitl deserve?
Draisaitl has now recorded five 100-point seasons and another 100-point pace season. He is a Hart Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, and Ted Lindsay trophy winner. The only player to really compare that to is Connor McDavid who is more decorated and has put up more points.
Though not many people would consider Draisaitl as good or better than Ovechkin and Crosby, his past six years have been at least as good as theirs were before signing a deal. It would not be even remotely surprising if Draisaitl asked for what they got. The NHL salary cap is projected to rise another $4M to $92M for the 2025–26 season. At the 16.82% that Ovechkin got, that’s $15.474M. The 15.72% that McDavid got equates to $14.462M and the 15.34% of Crosby is $14.113M. Draisaitl could easily ask for these things, pointing to his accomplishments and awards and comparing them to his peers just as I have.
I would consider it more likely that Draisaitl would take a bit of a reduction in order to help the team out though. While he has earned $14-15M, I would predict the number to be in the $11-13M range. Even that number is going to spell trouble for the Oilers management when they want to re-sign McDavid in the summer of 2025. If the cap does rise another $4M for the 2025–26 season and McDavid signs for say $16M, the two will have completely eaten up the extra $8M that the NHL gave them in two years.
The question of how long
A five to seven-year contract would likely be perfect for the Oilers, locking up Draisaitl long term but not so long that the risk of him seriously slowing down due to age is great. As he is 28-years-old that would bring him to 33 to 35. Draisaitl would then be free to sign a five- to seven-year deal to finish off his career while still being young enough to attract a decent sized AAV.
Despite this it’s almost definitely better, from Draisaitl’s point of view, to get as much money guaranteed as you can for as long as you can. For that reason Draisaitl and his agent will be pushing hard for an eight-year contract and they have a very good chance of getting that. There is a rich history of players in Draisaitl’s situation signing eight-year deals. The favour Draisaitl has earned with the Oilers from his impressive play makes it essentially certain he will get a seven- or eight-year contract.
To sign or not to sign
I take no joy in writing this section but if you’re playing armchair GM you have to consider the scenario of not bringing back Leon Draisaitl. The thought you probably had when reading about the kind of money that Draisaitl is likely to command is that, in combination with the exorbitant amount of money that McDavid will be payed next year, the Oilers will be locked in cap hell for the coming years once again. The brief relief they felt from the rising cap will be immediately eliminated.
Obviously you wouldn’t keep Draisaitl for the year just to let him walk for no return in free agency so you would make a trade this summer.
By no means do I think the Oilers do not want to bring Draisaitl back, but for the price you will have to pay him to stay you could have a $7M player and a $5M player. Without worrying about the likelihood of the trade being accepted nor even the sense of the trade itself, some options that fit the AAV to pique your imagination are Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Brent Burns, Frederik Andersen, Tim Stutzle, Matthew Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Linus Ullmark, Clayton Keller, and John Marino. I wouldn’t consider these trades very likely since most teams consider two good players better than one great player.
A more realistic trade could be a one for one that brings a great player who is not likely to sign for much more than what they are currently at. This would hurt the already tight cap situation until next year though (assuming the cap does rise next year). I have a hard time believing a trade couldn’t be made to bring Sebastian Aho, Kirill Kaprizov, or Aleksander Barkov to the Oilers in exchange for Draisaitl. There is maybe no point since Draisaitl is, at the very least, as good as these players but they are three very dynamic players who are very successful at driving their own lines.
This likely wouldn’t sit well with the roster and the fans though so I would consider it very unlikely that the Oilers take this path and instead get a deal done with Draisaitl this summer. Draisaitl deserves to win a Cup and he deserves to do it with the Oilers, for the city of Edmonton.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
