The Edmonton Oilers ended the Jack Campbell era on Sunday, placing the goaltender on unconditional waivers for purposes of a buyout, which was formally executed shortly before free agency opened on Canada Day. Campbell subsequently signed a $775K contract for one-year with the Detroit Red Wings.
Campbell’s struggles from the start
It’s safe to say that the Campbell signing was an unmitigated disaster for the Oilers. It took less than half a season for Campbell to lose his starting job to Stuart Skinner. When Skinner struggled a bit coming off the time of he had for the absence of his son, Campbell took back the net for a brief moment in time. However, after Campbell posted five straight starts where his GSAx indicated he was the primary cause for a loss, ultimately costing the Oilers first place in the Pacific, where they lost in six to a Vegas team that gained that home ice advantage. From that point forward, it was firmly Stuart Skinner’s net in 2022–23.
In 2023–24, the Oilers opened up camp with a goalie competition, with Skinner and Campbell battling for the 1A job. Campbell won the opening day start, but was pulled after four goals in half the game against Vancouver. Campbell eventually had one win before he was waived and subsequently assigned to the Bakersfield Condors. When he arrived in Bakersfield, Campbell only posted a a save percentage above .900 three times to go with a 4–4–0 record and .887 SV% overall in his first eight games, including numerous horrible goals that went viral on twitter.
The high point of Campbell’s career in Edmonton was undoubtedly Game 3 of the first round in 2023. Skinner struggled in the first, and was eventually pulled at the intermission with a 3–0 deficit, with the Oilers on the verge of going down 3–1 in the series. Campbell posted a 2.34 GSAx en route to a 4–3 OT win, including two massive breakaway saves to get the Oilers back in the series.
In terms of low points, there were many. In the 2023 season, Campbell gave up multiple goals that literally went through his glove, or bent back a pad to go through the five hole. This caused a change from his original Vaughn gear that was fashioned around Jonathan Quick’s spec, to Brian’s equipment before finally settling in Bauer for the 2024 season. Even within each brand, there was multiple variations of gloves. It was all a sign of the mental struggles that were plaguing Campbell’s game.
Performance wise, that five-game stretch in February 2023 likely cost the Oilers more than any other point. It’s a punctuation mark on a horrific Oilers’ career, where he finished with -21.87 GSAx and a .885 SV% in 41 NHL regular season games played.
Moving forward, what can we learn about goalie acquisition from the Campbell contract?
Previous workload matters
Campbell’s last year in Toronto was his first year as the clear-cut number one for his team. Before that, Campbell was slotted behind Frederik Andersen and Jonathan Quick respectively, stepping up as required for rest and injuries. It was a feel-good story that Campbell was able to flip the narrative from first-round bust to a competent NHL player, but the former first-round pick took the long way to establishing himself as a full time NHL option.
The Oilers stepped up to pay Campbell like a premier starter, but Campbell had never played 50 games in a single season. At the time, Skinner was going to be eased into a backup role, with the American veteran playing the lion’s share of the minutes. It turns out that Campbell could not handle the pressure of the starting gig, just like he couldn’t handle the pressure. Campbell’s previous injury history was present when signed, but didn’t even end up being a factor in Edmonton.
The other big goaltending signing from that summer was Darcy Kuemper, who won a cup and had an established record of success. He got $250K more on the same term as Campbell, and despite a season that was arguably worse than Campbell’s, found a team willing to take a chance on him as a reclamation project where Campbell had to be bought out. It’s also a possible red flag for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who enter the season with two goalies who have neither hit 40 games played.
How it matters when projecting forward
When the Oilers signed Campbell, one description of Campbell’s play that I was given is that he plays like a street hockey goalie. It wasn’t necessarily wrong, as Campbell’s game is primarily based on reads and instincts, reacting to each individual play as he sees it coming toward him. This includes playing with a lot of flow, which means that his feet are frequently moving as he tries to feel out the play happening in front of him. In itself, this lends itself to some high stretches of inconsistency.
Now in order to play at the NHL level, each goalie needs to have some technical base, but when a goalie skews to the reactionary side of that spectrum, they can become highly susceptible if things aren’t just right. If there’s a stretch where his reads are off or the opposition identifies target areas that can be exploited, said goalie will be chasing the play, being repeatedly put in positions where saves just aren’t capable of being made. Or if the said goalie is feeling a little banged up, his ability to react quickly and directly as he would normally be able to would be hampered, and he could get beat clean on shots that should be stopped.
Oilers fans saw this time and time again. Campbell was able to make some miraculous saves, but then would give up the worst goal you’ve ever seen. The Oilers couldn’t count on him game in game out to give them a chance to win.
This was foreseeable, as despite some gaudy numbers for stretches in Toronto, his technical game never allowed him consistency. In fact, the fall off from American Thanksgiving to the end of the year in Toronto should have been a massive red flag for the Oilers before they signed him to the contract.
Ultimately, the team is riding with Skinner as their starter, a goalie who may not have as high of a ceiling, but who’s technical base give him a strong floor to fall back on and give the team a consistent chance to the win. He was able to do so to the point of the team falling one goal short of a Stanley Cup this past year, despite the opposing starter making quadruple his salary.
Lesson learned
Jack Campbell is one of the worst signings in Oilers history, and had one of the worst contracts in the league until he was bought out by Edmonton. He never gained hold of the starting job, and had few bright spots during his two years in Edmonton. He seemed like a good person, so I wish him well in Detroit, but the technical and statistical red flags were evident before he signed on the dotted line in Summer 2022, and the Oilers should learn so they don’t make the same mistakes again.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
