It’s time! Quarter Final day at the World Juniors coming up! Normally, this day has one big upset and has three even games. It also proves that early upsets in Round Robin do not mean much. Let’s break it down.
USA versus Latvia
On paper, the US are the gold favourites here. They had a nice round robin and finished first as expected. Thumping Slovakia 10–2 must have helped their confidence. Two good goalies, 14 first rounders, and no real weakness. At worst you could argue that their defence is better at offence than defence. Latvia is in trouble. I can’t see a close game at all. Latvia making the quarters is their gold medal. One has to feel for Germany. They started the tournament by beating Finland. Finland is now third in the group and Germany is playing Norway for Regulation on January 4. Nonetheless, I say the US wins this in a landslide. 6–0.
Sweden versus Switzerland
Normally I’d say this will be a close a game. However, the Swiss are coming on hard times. They have a very strong generation in the NHL right now. Lots of great players aged 25 and up! However, their Junior results at Hlinka’s, U18s and U20s have not been good. Not many NHL prospects either. They are on a downward trend and may not see it yet. They haven’t been particularly impressive in their tournament here either. Smart money is on Sweden who has done very well for themselves and, on paper, have a gold medal calibre squad themselves. Sweden 4 and Switzerland 0.
Slovakia versus Finland
Slovakia had a very odd round robin. They demolished the Czechs and looked every bit a Gold medal contender doing it. Then they barely beat the Swiss. They looked great against Norway and then got demolished by the US 10–2 in the game for first in the pool. Finland started awful and lost to Germany. It looked like they may not even qualify. Finland is in a mini slump themselves. Last year they lost every major quarter. Their draft picks have gone down. Several first rounders have also busted. They are also missing Kemmel and Kvirijarhu. If there was a time for Slovakia to beat the Finns. It is this year.
Finns are trending neutrally right now. Slovakia is trending up right now. They are missing Nemec and Slafkovsky. If they had those two, they would have the first forward (Slafkovsky), Dman (Nemec) and goalie (Gajan) taken in their drafts. They’d be a gold medal contender. Other countries like Canada have this happen all the time but Canada has a lot of depth to overcome these problems. Slovakia does have 3 even lines, some good D and Adam Gajan (who has been the best goalie in the tournament). This game is a coin toss and should be the game of the day. Slovakia 4 and Finland 3 in a shootout.
Canada versus Czechia
A rematch of the gold medal match from last year. Also a rematch of the Hlinka gold medal match from this summer. Czechs are also on the rise right now (their team next year looks to be stronger than this year. Last years team was very strong). Canada is always the King at these tournaments. It could be argued that both teams are weaker than the two teams that met a year ago in the finals. Canada has won two in a row and are very dominant. However, their last decade has shown much better results on North American rinks vs European ones. They always have a goalie controversy. They are missing some sensational pieces (Connor Bedard is still eligible for two more of these).
However, they are Canada and are deep with first rounders and star players (mostly from the CHL). They also have the potential first overall pick in Celebrini. They are also great at scoring uncanny last minute goals. They are the favorite in this without question.
From the Czech perspective. They were destroyed Game 1 and everything went wrong. After that, they have had three solid games in a row. They demolished Norway. They took the US to a seven-round shootout. They beat Switzerland quite handily. Before the tournament I mentioned they have no real weakness. This is not an unbalanced squad. This is a pretty even one that can give anyone a headache.
Hrabal is the better goalie in the game (despite being up and down so far). Kulich is probably the best goal scorer in this game (leads the AHL in scoring and just set the record for Czech players with 13 all time at the World Juniors). Czechs have the big three forwards in Sale, Sapovaliv, and Kulich. They split up Sale and Kulich and it’s done wonders for them. After the big three, the Czechs do have some players that are over a .ppg in the CHL that can contribute. Melovsky, Rymon, and Becher are all .ppg (or more) on their CHL teams. They can all sneak a goal in. Basically, the Czechs do have depth on offence. The Czechs did lose a .ppg player in Robin Sapousek in the Swiss game. He won’t be suiting up for the quarters.
Their defence is also very balanced. Tomas Hamara has been playing around 25 minutes a game and done very well in both ends. Expect to see a lot of him. Only surprise on D is Tomas Cibulka. He’s been playing around 20 a night but has no points. He leads the Q in D scoring. They lost Jiricek in a disastrous Game 1 but this opened the door for another cage wearing 17 year old Dman in Tomas Galvas. He has been excellent on the third pair with Prcik (himself a substitue). Galvas is a tiny player that can fly. Very elusive. Prcik is a big player who likes to push and shove. They compliment each other well.
For Canada to win they have to be Canada. Score early. Relentless pressure and skate, skate and skate! Capitilize on the power play and have a good PK. Canada is absolutely capable of all of this.
For the Czechs to win they have to get the PP going. They have to keep it close in the first period and not drop behind by a pair of goals. They need Hrabal to be Hrabal! He was the second goalie taken in the draft and is 6’6”. He’s played every second of the tournament. The D has to be consistent. Czechs cannot take dumb penalties (a staple in the first three games). They need Kulich to continue scoring and rise to the occasion.
I think the Czechs are very capable of an upset here. However, the smart bet is Canada 4–2 as they pursue their third straight Gold.
Here are the top 10 scorers after the round robin.
Photo from @HockeyCanada on Twitter
