The Edmonton Oilers are backing themselves into a corner, of any playoff hope plummeting down the standings, of any roster changes, tight up against the cap. While there has been a lot of change in the organisation, two issues have remained constant: goaltending and defensive play. While the goalies are an issue unto themselves, the defensive issues are present through the Oilers lineup.
Fairly or unfairly, the flagship of this lackadaisical defensive approach is often Evan Bouchard. Far from the only offender of poor defensive moments, Bouchard’s resume of garish gaffes have hurt the Oilers. As the season slips away from the Oilers, might they be interested in weighing the pros and cons of keeping Bouchard as part of their core?
What Bouchard has to offer
Bouchard excels in the offensive game, headlined by his elite shot. Bouchard sees the ice well and is a daring playmaker who is able to man the top power play. At a point per game this season, Bouchard is able to produce offensively even while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl go through relative slumps.
In fact, just recently Bouchard passed a games played threshold, and is officially rated as a star in Byron Bader’s ranking system. Bouchard is clearly an offensive talent, able to influence play to a level that not many across the league can. It isn’t just Bader whose model values Bouchard, as we can see he grades high in Andy and Rono’s work as well, producing a fairly strong defensive grade overall.
These ratings, especially ones that look favourably on Bouchard’s defence can be contentious for fans, who have seen a number of poor defensive plays from Bouchard, bordering on unacceptable. To reconcile this we must realise that Bouchard does have a generally positive effect on his team’s controlling play, but also that his high risk offensive game and lack of defensive intensity can still be costly.
Still, it must be acknowledged that Bouchard is a special talent, one that was, is, and would be costly to acquire. Bouchard’s value might be even greater when we weigh his handedness, especially within the context of the Oilers lineup. There is not a lot of depth on the Oilers right side behind Bouchard, with Cody Ceci playing at his maximum and Vincent Desharnais perhaps a bit past his own. Sure Phil Kemp might be able to work his way into an NHL lineup at some point, and Max Wanner has a great potential that is still a ways away, but even the Oilers AHL depth has more options on the left side.
Bouchard, of course, adds a gaudy flourish to a power play unit that features two of the game’s greats in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, as Darnell Nurse could fill the role adequately.
As a trade chip
In acknowledging Bouchard’s aptitudes, and the degree to which he displays them, as well as a favourable age and contract situation, we can see that Bouchard is an extremely valuable player. Were Bouchard on another team, it would seem an impossibility for the Oilers to fork over the cost to acquire him.
Given the desperate tone the Oilers are being discussed in amidst this early season fiasco, fans across Oil Country are both dreaming of and dreading drastic changes to the team. The vultures of doubt are circling overhead with each passing loss, and none are safe from the Oilers early glare into the abyss.
It is by this same token, if for some reason the Oilers did not hold Bouchard as part of their long term plans, that he might be the most valuable trade chip available in reshaping the roster. Virtually every player might be had for the right price, so the context of the return is crucial to understanding the high stakes hand that is dealing Bouchard.
Team context
Finding the right situation might be easier said than done. Quite frankly the Oilers might be in need of an upgrade at right defence before dealing Bouchard, and it’s somewhat difficult to imagine a scenario where the Oilers can upgrade, or even tread water, on the right side in a Bouchard trade. While Bouchard would be more than enough to make any contract palatable for, say, the San Jose Sharks, to take on, these types of teams don’t typically have clear upgrades on Bouchard available.
A big part of finding a balance is keeping in mind that this trade should improve the Oilers in the present, the team will also need to maintain his projected contributions in the next five-plus seasons as well. With McDavid and Draisaitl in the fold, one could argue that building a top tier blueline is the next most crucial aspect of building a contender. Perhaps the stars could elevate a lesser offensive group, but they cannot lead the charge on defence on top of their usual regular season scoring heroics.
As much as Bouchard can frustrate fans, even to the point where he is a somewhat polarising player, is understandable. Bouchard will never be the most physical or intense defender, though he can certainly tighten up his play in this area in the games and years to come. This might be made more irritating, for some, because of his height, earning the inauspicious descriptor of being “big for nothing.”
On a philosophical level, many might feel that ultimate glory cannot be achieved with such players, that defensive lapses will lose more often than high flying offensive plays can win. Of course, to some degree, there is merit to this thinking, though with such a rare talent hanging in the balance a trade to move Bouchard at this point must come from a place of conviction as opposed to the desperation state that looms over Oil Country.
Alternative options
Instead, it might be more informative to picture things from a team, or more specifically a blueline, perspective as more collaborative. If the overall quality of the Oilers blueline is in question, the more prudent path to rectifying the situation would be to continue to build the group, adding players of complementary skill sets to balance the profile.
As Ceci and Desharnais already profile as defensively minded, and both continue to outperform their contracts, this means offloading salary from elsewhere to find an upgrade on one of them. Getting out of Jack Campbell’s contract would be excellent news, perhaps the most obvious route to some flexibility. The next option might be to move off of Brett Kulak, providing that one of Philip Broberg, Ben Gleason, or Markus Niemelainen can backfill the role adequately.
The Oilers will need to give up assets, likely future value, to improve in the here and now. While the thought of dealing a draft choice becomes less reasonable with each passing loss, this remains an option. So too does it remain an option to move some of the team’s more notable prospects, such as Xavier Bourgault, or even younger roster players like Broberg or Dylan Holloway.
At the end of the day it is still most likely that we see a trade for a goalie. Rumours beyond that are more focused on forwards than the defence group, as well. We should not be expecting a Bouchard trade, and though the possibility is certainly intriguing this is likely for the best. Ideally, the Oilers could target a defensive right shot who is an upgrade on Desharnais, and could reasonably push both Bouchard and Ceci for minutes.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
