Edmonton Oilers

Evaluating whether the Edmonton Oilers should sign Evan Bouchard to a long-term extension

Although Evan Bouchard still has one more year on his entry-level contract (ELC), it would be smart of Ken Holland to consider locking up his emerging offensive defencemen to a long-term deal sooner rather than later.

Bouchard’s 2021-22 season

Bouchard’s 2021-22 season saw him as a regular player in the Edmonton Oilers lineup for the first time since he was drafted back in 2018. During this time, Bouchard was paired with Duncan Keith and was dependable, playing 81 out of 82 regular season games.

Not only could you count on him to be in the lineup, but you could count on him offensively, putting up an impressive 12 goals, and 31 assists for 43 points. His ability to make a clean breakout pass paired with his remarkable ability to thread his shots through bodies in front of the net are just some of his many talents.

The area of Bouchard’s game that seemed to be lacklustre at times was in his own zone. There were periods throughout the year when he seemed to make poor defensive reads that led to opportunities for the opposing team.

However, this seemed to subside once Jay Woodcroft took over as head coach of the Oilers in February and Bouchard’s play became more consistent, continuing into the playoffs, where he posted nine points in 16 games against the Los Angeles Kings, Calgary Flames, and Colorado Avalanche. Prior to the playoffs, Bouchard averaged almost 20 minutes a game on the second pairing and was holding his own, finishing the regular season with a plus-minus of 10.

Why Ken Holland should sign Bouchard early

Looking at the 2021–22 season stats, the Oilers are currently getting great value out of their up-and-coming defenceman.

With the continued progression in his development and the likelihood of more power play time in the 2022–23 season, Bouchard’s offensive numbers could surpass last year’s. This is nothing but good news for both him and the Oilers.

However, with a stronger season comes increased value, and a contract extension could be much more expensive than it would be if Holland signed him closer to the start of the 2022–23 season.

Bouchard is still two years away from being granted arbitration rights, which means Holland could sign him to a short-term bridge deal that would save the team money now.

The issue with this is that we could see a similar situation to the massive $9.25M average annual value deal Darnell Nurse signed because of the two bridge deals he signed in 2018 and 2020. This is why it does make sense to offer Bouchard a longer-term deal now before his value is high and have the team enjoy the cap savings when signing players like Xavier Bourgault, Reid Schaefer, and Philip Broberg in the following years.

Making the money work

Looking at the books, it won’t be as hard to sign Bouchard as you might think.

According to CapFriendly.com, the Oilers are projected to have around $13.7 million in cap room next year. They will be able to make more room by trading Tyson Barrie ($4.5M) and Warren Foegele ($2.5M).

I assume Holland will be signing Ryan McLeod before the start of this season which will eat up some of that money. Stuart Skinner and Jesse Puljujarvi will be restricted free agents at the end of this season, so some money would be spent there to retain their talents, but there will still be enough left to get a deal done.

Of course, signing a young and talented offensive defenceman to a longer-term deal involves some risk, but just because they are still developing as players and lack past experience in the NHL shouldn’t stop the team from considering it. Especially when it can lead to millions in cap savings later down the road.

Betting on Bouchard

The league has seen more of its younger stars earn longer contracts. Most recently, this includes the likes of Tage Thompson (7 x $7.14M) of the Buffalo Sabres and Tim Stutzle (8 x $8.35M) of the Ottawa Senators. Whether the Oilers follow suit and put together a contract for Bouchard remains to be known, but Bouchard would be worth the bet.


Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire

22 Comments

  1. I agree with Layne’s blog. The Oil need to lock up the “Bouch-Bomb” before his true value is realized and the Oilers will not have the cap space to retain him.

    1. Glad you enjoyed the article! Yes I certainly think it would be smart to get it done sooner rather then later.

  2. What a take on the young man, I hope to see a big season from the lad that warrants us getting rid of Barrie for some bigger potential ( maybe a player like Ethan Bear 😂)

    1. I could see us moving on from Barrie especially if Bouchard takes over the power-play this year. As for bringing back Ethan Bear, I do think he still has potential to be a pretty good defencemen, but we didn’t see him take a step forward this year in Carolina as he’s still playing borderline 3rd pairing minutes.

  3. Though my fellow Oiler supporters make most valid points and offer great perspective (blogger included), does it make sense to tie up huge dollars in someone that has not proven his weight in gold? We don’t have a Kale Makar here. Do I like Bouch??,….absolutely!! Don’t do it just yet. I can see Ken Holland taking another year to orchestrate the idea of signing him long term. We can’t forget that there are 22 other guys on the roster. No one is safe from trade. Cap space could get much better next year. Holland inherited a toilet brush of trouble, thanks to former GM’s. He is doing the best that he can with what was given to him. He is slowly snaking the drain to release the clog!! (And I think he has done a good job so far). Respectfully submitted.

    1. You make a good point, there is definitely some risk involved in this signing because of the term if he does not pan out as expected. On the other hand if it did pan out it could definitely help the Oilers with their cap situation. My main worry with this deal is signing him to bridge deals and kicking the money can down the road until it turns into another Darnell Nurse contract or we lose him because he prices himself out of Edmonton.

  4. This is the exact type of player where the risk of going long off their ELC make sense. The floor is super high and the ceiling is as well. Bouch has legit John Carlsson potential.

    I think he could put up 60 points this year and that’s without full time PP1 duty but splitting it with Barrie.

    Yes, Bouch struggled without the puck at times this season – bad angles on some rushes, losing his man in the defensive zone, etc. Of course, he’s 22 and all 22 year old d-men continue to develop their defensive games. Bouch is big and strong, from accounts, an elite athlete and, importantly, very smart and coachable. His 2-way game will come in time, in particular with Manson as his new coach.

    Lou L. did the Oilers a big favor signing $4M X 3 – that’s the current comparable and, while Dobson is a better skater, Bouch is simply the higher tier offensive player – Dobson made hay on the PP, Bouch made hay at 5 on 5 and we know he will excel on the PP when given the opportunity.

    Bouch will probably blow past Dobson as a comparable after this season but that’s the current comparable. To get long term, its probably $5.5MM 6-8 years and, frankly, Bouch will be giving away big upside if he signs that but it would be tough for a 22 year old to turn down apx $35MM of guaranteed money – maybe he’d sign it fo the guarantee and knowing he’d be 28-30 when its over and another big contract to come.

    1. I totally agree with your comparable of Dobson for this season, and my hope is that he signs a contract around that $6 million number. My guess is that he does.. the Oil are a contending team, he’s familiar with the coaching staff and has been successful under them, he has also played with players like Yamamoto and McLeod.

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