Today we are three-quarters of the way through the season and Evan Bouchard, believe it or not, leads the league in points by a defenceman with 71. Zach Werenski sits in second with 65, Cale Makar in third with 64, and Quinn Hughes in fourth with 61. These three are who would be considered Bouchard’s “main competition” and that is how I will refer to them from now on.
The question is whether or not Bouchard can beat that competition out for the Norris Trophy this year. He is having the most productive year of his career so far, on pace for 24 goals and 94 points. Looking at that alone I would have considered it a sure thing that Bouchard would win the Norris, since offensive defencemen get way more attention than the stay at home type so far as Norris voting goes.
For that reason I looked into the Norris Trophy winners from the past 20 years, here is what I found:
Looking into the past
Looking back at the last 20 Norris Trophy winners, I expected to find that the vast majority of winners led the league in points by a defenceman. To my surprise that was only true for nine of the last 20. Looking at the stats by themselves, it’s difficult to tell exactly what the voters were looking at—apparently the eye test carries more weight with them than I once thought.
Honestly looking back, there were some times when people were robbed blind. In 2009 Mike Green put up 31 goals and 73 points in only 68 games with a +24 rating. 31 goals is the most by a defenceman since 1993. He lost the Norris to Zdeno Chara who had 19 goals and 50 points in 80 games with a +23 rating. Chara had a solid season no doubt, but if you score over 30 goals with a solid plus-minus you should win the Norris. No questions asked. Unless Chara did something spectacular that year that I’ve forgotten about.
The underlying metrics for Bouchard
Here are some of Bouchard’s 5v5 on-ice underlying statistics:
CF% = 55.5
SF% = 56.95
GF% = 54.24
xGF% = 55.75
HDCF% = 56.37%
I found another surprise when I looked into Bouchard’s underlying metrics. Most of Bouchard’s on-ice metrics are better than his main competition. In some cases he is quite a bit better. Truthfully, although I considered Bouchard to be a top-10 offensive defenceman in the NHL, I would have thought he would have been well below the main competition in these underlying stats.
The only stat from above in which he trails is Makar and that’s in GF%. This is the expected stat as Bouchard creates more turnovers than a swanky bakery on sunny Sunday morning; but as much as he could be better in that area, he’s still ahead of Hughes and Werenski. I haven’t checked the stats yet, but I suspect there is a healthy correlation between a high scoring defenceman and high on-ice goals scored against, which isn’t really surprising.
Considering how far ahead Bouchard is in each of those categories though, as well as in points, I’d say he has an extremely good chance at winning the Norris.
The popularity factor
Another time when a defenceman was robbed, though not quite to the same degree as Mike Green, was in 2011. A relatively unknown and oft forgotten gentleman by the name of Lubomir Visnovsky of the Anaheim Ducks led all defencemen in points with 68 and a +18 rating. Nicklas Lidstrom ended up winning the Norris despite having six fewer points and two two fewer goals with a measly -2 rating.
This specific instance makes you wonder if players of a higher “popularity” are given more votes because of that popularity itself. That was Lidstrom’s seventh Norris, he won the Stanley Cup four times, and the Conn Smythe once. He is rightly considered one of the best defencemen to ever play the game. On the other hand, Visnovsky had had some good seasons before 2011, but he was relatively unknown and was streaky. In this instance though, it seems like he might simply have lost a popularity contest.
Could the same thing happen to Bouchard? Bouchard is well established now as a high scoring defenceman, but there is no denying that players like Makar, Hughes, and Werenski get a lot more attention in general. If the race comes down to the wire and Bouchard ends up having similar stats to one of those three, does he lose the vote? I would say that popularity probably is swaying the minds of some of the voters unfortunately.
It’s impossible to say what will happen of course. In the end, the voters are all human and are subject to some prejudice, but I believe Bouchard should be considered the frontrunner for the Norris as of right now.
stats from NHL.com and naturalstattrick.com
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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