Voting for NHL awards is often a funny thing. Some awards, like the Art Ross Trophy, are simple and objective. Others are more subjective, like the Norris Trophy or the Selke Trophy. There is no clear formula for these subjective awards, more often an exercise in cherry picking stats to support a narrative.
There is not much surprise here, but these narratives can help or hurt the cases for players. The danger here is less about an undeserving player taking home the award, but rather that deserving players will be left out. Such might be the case for the Edmonton Oilers Evan Bouchard and his Norris Trophy candidacy.
Let’s take a closer look at where Bouchard is, what narratives surround him, and ultimately whether or not he is being appreciated enough as a legitimate Norris Trophy candidate.
Narratives around the Norris Trophy
There are two predominant narrative threads that propel Norris Trophy voting. First is offensive output. To the chagrin of many the Norris Trophy is often heavily influenced by offensive output. This has gotten to a point where many around the league have begun to suggest a new award that focuses on acknowledging the best defensive defenceman, as those efforts are often underrepresented in awards voting.
Bouchard leads NHL defencemen in scoring, which is a great start to his candidacy. He will likely need to outscore every defenceman in the league to have a shot of winning the award. Other high scoring defencemen, rightly or wrongly, are often thought of as more complete than Bouchard, so he might have to win this scoring race by a wider margin to have a real chance at winning.
The second narrative is one of reputation. The Norris Trophy, like the Selke Trophy, can often be representative of a career’s work as much as it is of an individual season. In this sense it can take years to build a Norris Trophy candidacy. With so many great defencemen around the league it is somewhat understandable that it takes some time for reputations to lag behind performance.
In Bouchard’s case he has received Norris Trophy votes in each of the past two seasons, finishing fifth in 2023–24, and eleventh in 2024–25. This history means that Bouchard will have a good chance of receiving votes this season.
The third narrative is one of team context. This is a bit more nebulous as a number of factors can come into play. For some major awards, making the playoffs is vital. This trend was bucked vis-a-vis the Norris Trophy when Erik Karlsson last won the award, his towering point total powering him to a victory. An important piece of context is that Karlsson led his San Jose Sharks in scoring that season.
Of course, the Oilers are expected to make the playoffs. Also of importance, Bouchard will not lead the Oilers in scoring, even if he outscored the rest of the league’s defencemen. For some reason, Bouchard’s teammates Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl seem to hurt his case more than others. Cale Makar comes to mind here, as playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon and the high flying Colorado Avalanche does not seem to carry the same baggage. Makar remains a relevant comparable for Bouchard, especially since recognition for Makar has been more plentiful, including two Norris Trophy wins and a chance to play for Canada’s Olympic team.
Bouchard’s growth over the years
While Bouchard has been an elite offensive defenceman for some time, earning him some Norris Trophy consideration in the past, clearly he will need more to win over voters. The good news for Bouchard and the Oilers is that there has been some growth to his game this season.
As usual, seemingly, Bouchard struggled in the autumn portion of the season. These struggles are consistently mirrored by the Oilers as a whole, no less. Bouchard’s aptitudes as a player require him to take risks to maximize his offensive talents. This does lead to his share of mistakes.
His size and his talents might make these mistakes more glaring. A whiffed pass, a bad giveaway, or a lack of physical desperation become all the more frustrating. Taller players have longer strides, which can often make these mistakes appear slower than they are. His height also evokes an expectation to be a punishing physical presence, which begets more frustration when Bouchard opts for a stick check.
Again, to use Makar as a measuring stick, these narratives against Bouchard are a bit overblown. Makar is undoubtedly a faster skater and has less giveaways than Bouchard this season. Bouchard is close to Makar in both hits and blocks. Both defencemen get heavy offensive zone deployment and help drive play at an elite level.
The biggest change this season is that for the first time Bouchard is playing on the penalty kill as much as Makar is. This is a big reason to hope that Bouchard is continuing to round out his game. Both log considerably more time short handed than the other defencemen that are among the top five point producers. All of this together paints a picture that Bouchard’s perceived defensive liabilities are overblown.
Who else is a contender
For now Bouchard does rank among betting favourites for the Norris Trophy. He is joined by Makar, Zach Werenski, Lane Hutson, and Quinn Hughes among the top five, while Moritz Seider is sixth. Makar and Werenski are the leaders, Bouchard settling in with similar odds to Hutson and Hughes. A dark horse candidate to find his way into the race is Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres.
As expected, the top five are all among the leading point scorers for defencemen. This underscores how important the points race will be for deciding the award. Werenski stands out here, as he is the only one leading his team in scoring. This might be enough to sway some voters, even if the Columbus Blue Jackets miss the playoffs.
Bouchard will need to outpace his peers to have a chance at taking home the Norris Trophy, but perhaps this should not be the case. Werenski plays a meaningful role on the penalty kill, while slightly less so than Makar and Bouchard. Hughes and Hutson do not have regular roles on the penalty kill, which could be deciding factors.
The outlier among the group is Seider, who does not quite have the same stratosphere of production. Seider is producing, but his game is defined as much by his defence and physicality. He might be able to win over some voters thanks to this play style, but it would be off-trend for the recent history of the award.
Hutson is an interesting inclusion, as the youngster is not in the same stratosphere of defensive play as the rest of the group. His odds might be as much about the excitement surrounding the resurgent Montreal Canadiens as it is anything else. While still a fantastic young player, it is odd to see him receive so much support, in some cases more than Bouchard, despite his defensive issues being much more pronounced. This might speak to Bouchard’s unfair reputation as a defensive liability, or how his size can be detrimental to perception of his game.
Snubbed at the Olympics
Something that Hutson shares with Bouchard is their perceived Olympic snubs, excluded from rosters to represent their respective countries. This might sway opinions on them, particularly if their direct competition for the Norris Trophy plays in the tournament.
In this sense, the Olympics might put Bouchard in a less favourable position against Makar, Hughes, or Werenski. Especially so for Makar, who was named to team Canada. Some voters will have to ask themselves if they are comfortable voting for Bouchard over Makar if team Canada saw the players so differently.
At the very least, a nomination to team Canada, as well as a strong Olympic performance would go a long way towards changing his reputation. One might think that Bouchard’s playoff performances might have helped his cause, as his playoff scoring already mirrors that of Makar’s quite closely. Naturally, Makar’s Stanley Cup victory is not equaled by Bouchard. With so little to pick between them, things like an Olympic invite make a difference.
Should Bouchard be considered?
Bouchard is considered among the favourites for the Norris Trophy, as he should be. Health provided, it is difficult to envision that Makar and Werenski will not represent two of the three finalists. Both are seen as more complete defencemen, so outscoring them will be crucial.
Unfortunately for him optics will make it difficult for him to win the award. Bouchard will likely need to lead NHL defencemen in scoring by a margin to have a shot a an outright win, otherwise it might be difficult for him to be voted into the top three.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
