The topic of the state of the defence has been a main topic this season for the Edmonton Oilers. While Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard continue their great play, along with the strong emergence of Spencer Stastney playing high in the lineup with Jake Walman still out, the pair that has been discussed about night in and out is Darnell Nurse and Alec Regula. While Regula is boosting some strong analytics, a 51.96 xG% share, he has a 25% actual goal share this season. Some of that is some PDO unluckiness but he has spent basically all season next to 25.
I bring up Regula because I truly believe Nurse is not only harming him on the ice but the entire team. He’s been a huge net negative this season. In this quick article, I’ll go over how little positive impact Nurse actually has on the team.
Data is sourced from InEffectiveHockey, NaturalStatTrick, and AllThreeZones.
Nurse’s impact on the team
First off, Nurse’s offensive impact is harming the team. While one will look at his baseline stats and assume he’s been at his career average, the Oilers as a group are significantly worse when he is on the ice.
Right now, Nurse is at a 49 xG% on the season, but when he isn’t on the ice with Connor McDavid, he’s at a 46.71 xG%. These are horrible numbers. Nurse is also posting a 2.22 GF/60 and a 2.74 xG/60 this season. These are the lowest numbers in his career since 2017–18, when he was 22 years old. McDavid’s numbers are spectacular away from #25. McDavid’s xG numbers jump up by a whopping 6% (from 52 to 58) and his goal-scoring output also increases when 25 is off the ice. McDavid’s defensive numbers also dramatically get better, where he sees his xGA/60 go from 3.09 with Nurse to 2.57(!!!!) without him.
Need more proof? With Leon Draisaitl, he has a 50% GF, 46.61 xG% (bad!), a 2.79 xG/60 and a 3.19 xGA/60. When Draisaitl is away from him, Draisaitl is at a 59.18 GF%, 54.71 xG%, 2.9 xG/60 and a 2.4 xGA/60. Again, all drastically better numbers.
Nurse fails to help his best players do what they do best: produce.
Even when relative to the entire team, which includes the bottom sixers, Nurse’s relative stats are among the worst on the squad: he’s 16th in CF%rel/60, 17th at GF%, and 13th in xG%.
Nurse’s overall defensive display
Now let’s talk about Nurse’s defensive play. As you can see, Nurse’s 5v5 defence has declined, along with his offence which we touched on already. The area he’s sunk the most in is the zone entries denials. Nurse was pretty average in this category in the last few years where could hold his own for the most part against the rush. This year, that has cratered where he’s negative in his actual denials of letting the opponent into the zone, but is the WORST in the league this season when allowing chances against off the rush/when an opponent comes into the zone. This has cost the Oilers (and their goaltenders) valuable points in the standings.
Sure, Nurse gets targeted a lot off the rush, but look at Jacob Slavin here back in 2021. He got targeted pretty much as much as Nurse, but he is so good in his own end that it did not matter. He was elite at preventing chances or denying the play all together.
Nurse also sees a decline in his puck retrieval stats. He’s been touching the puck at a lower rate this season. Could this be a system issue? Maybe. But the fact of the matter is Nurse has been on a steady decline on pretty much every facet of his game.
As previously mentioned, Nurse has tanked Draisaitl and McDavid defensively when paired to them. That alone should also be alarming. How does a supposed top-four D-man who makes $9.25M actively make your best players play worse?
This heat map from Micah McCurdy (IneffectiveHockey/HockeyViz) paints a bleak picture. Nurse, at his best, is absolutely MID when it comes to his 5v5 offensive output, which is supposed to be a strength of his. Nurse is prone to spamming a wrister on net, as shown above.
On the top right is his power play output. Again, it’s awful. Sure, there may be coaching influences as Knoblauch loves his forwards to cycle through the defenceman, but the Oilers basically generate next to no offence with him at there. He kills plays. Defensively, again, is a tirefire. He cannot for the life of him clear the net front and opponents always are able to get chances from the HD zones. His penalty kill impact is just straight up laughable. The Oilers are getting SHELLED when he’s out there.
Again, he is getting killed in the slot and in the net front. Is it that shocking to see the Oilers penalty kill and goalies struggle when he’s out there?
Finally, here’s a look of the Oilers map with and without Nurse. Offensively, the Oilers generate more chances and are +3% without #25. Defensively, again, sees the Oilers become a way better team when Nurse is not on the ice. They can actually defend the slot and prevent high danger chances. The Oilers improve by 17%(!!!). 17!!!! That is insane. The Oilers as a team without Nurse allows 2.35 xGA/60. The top three teams are Ottawa with 2.3, Vegas with 2.32, and L.A. with 2.36. Yes, without Nurse, Edmonton would be the THIRD BEST TEAM defensively in the league with Nurse.
Nurse has also been playing at a third pair level this season, statiscally his worse since his rookie year. For a guy who isn’t even that old at 30 years of age and making 9.25, this is frightening.
Final thoughts on Nurse
It’s quite clear Nurse is probably the Oilers fourth or fifth best defender right now. For a team in a closing cup window, this contract and his play will be a poison pill for the Oilers chances, as it has been for the last few years. Nurse has all the tools in the world to be successful in this league, yet he struggles consistently year to year. I do hope it turns around, but my faith in that happening is low.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
Oh my goodness. He is what he is. Get over it