Next week on New Years Eve, we will have officially entered the second half of the season.
Wow, has this season flown by.
Despite a very sluggish start by the group and injuries piling on, the Oilers find themselves in a three-way tie for first in the division alongside the Vegas Golden Knights and the Anaheim Ducks. With a record of 19–13–6, they’re currently on pace for 95 points, but they have the second easiest schedule in the league left to go, and they’ll likely end up in the 101–106 range like they have for most of this decade.
Regardless of their record, the team still has some pretty noticeable flaws that they must address come playoff time, especially given how unworldly the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars look right now. If Edmonton wants to get back to the Stanley Cup Final and finally win the thing, they have to get past one of those teams, and right now, they would probably get smoked, despite the success they have against Dallas.
Currently, the team has been carried offensively by Connor McDavid, who’s been on an absolute heater and is on track for 50 goals again, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman and Jack Roslovic. Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie have been their only really decent depth contributors. The rest of the forward core looks bleak. Andrew Mangiapane has looked like Viktor Arvidsson 2.0, Adam Henrique’s boots are totally gone and hasn’t scored in 30 games, Trent Frederic….. not great, David Tomasek has left for Sweden, and other depth guys like Mattias Janmark, Curtis Lazar, Kasperi Kapanen, Max Jones and Noah Philp have either been meh or injured.
This is a team that has not won a division title since 1987. They have a chance to win it here and make another very deep run. It’s hard with all the hockey they have played but it’s doable. Come the playoffs they need the following solved: A third line centre/top-six wing hybrid, and a top-four right-shot D. With the addition of Tristan Jarry and strong play of Ingram, I do not think the Oilers will be inclined to target a netminder until the offseason if things really go south in the postseason. As for the D, yes, Spencer Stastney has been found money and Jake Walman will return.
But, the Oilers have struggled a ton when they have a D-man on their offside. You cannot go into the postseason with Alec Regula as your 2RHD. With the 3C/Top-six wing hybrid, it allows much more creativity and versatility in the lineup. You could either just keep the amazing 93–97–18 line together or you let RNH centre his own line and put the new player with McDavid, or maybe you put them with Leon and Savoie goes to 97’s wing. Again, endless combinations.
In years 11 and 12 of McDavid and Draisaitl’s careers—who, remember, are closing in on their 30s—the team desperately needs to fill the holes plaguing them. Otherwise, one will begin to question if the Stanley Cup window is closing. McDavid’s recent extension did not help this further by only signing for two years. Yes, there’s some decent future pieces in Bakersfield like Joshua Samanski, Isaac Howard, Cole Hutson and Viljami Marjala but… everything should be considered to be moved out this deadline, with the exception of Howard.
They need to go all in.
Once more, the two main targets the Oilers need are a forward in the middle-six, basically a hybrid 3C/top-six winger and a top-four RHD along with some depth. I believe I have found the best 10 options for the Oilers to target. I’ll go over what I think the Oilers should give up, and at the end, I’ll put together my potential post-trade deadline lineup
Data is from JFreshHockey AllThreeZones, MoneyPuck and NaturalStatTrick.
Forwards – Centres
Ryan O’Reilly – Nashville Predators
Returning from last year’s list is Nashville Predators centre Ryan O’Reilly. While Pierre Lebrun recently poured cold water on ROR wanting to leave Tennessee, that will not stop teams from calling on him. Ryan O’Reilly has everything you want in a player. He’s big, an incredible leader, has cup experience, a Conn Smythe winner, a defensive hound, strong on pucks, and fills a vital hole at centre for any club.
He’s having a very good season having 11 goals and 32 points in 36 games thus far. Any worries of him slowing down have been negated. ROR is also super affordable at a 4.5M cap hit with another season left after this one. Sure, he’s not quick. Sure, he’s probably not that 75–80 point two-way selke nominee anymore. But he’s still damn good and would be a high-impact piece for any contender to add.
O’Reilly has some very strong underlying metrics as well. Currently, he’s boasting a 55.83 xG% and a GF% of 55.81. This means he literally isn’t overachieving whatsoever. The scoring chances for are in favour of him clipping at a 55.06% rate, he has a HDCF% of 58.05, a HDGF% of 60 and rocking a tiny PDO boost at 1.013.
The trade price will probably be astronomically high but I think it’s worth it for Edmonton to give it a look.
Nicholas Roy – Toronto Maple Leafs
Bob has mentioned the a few times over the past week that he can see the Oilers go after a “RHC on a team who was expected to make the playoffs but aren’t”. In my mind there’s two players that this could be. The first one is Leafs centre Nicholas Roy.
Oiler fans know Roy pretty well. Roy was a part of the Vegas Golden Knights from 2019–2025 and played the Oilers in the playoffs in 2023 and 2025. Roy, while again a very slow skater, is a smart defensive player that can produce in a bottom-six role. While only having 11 points this season, Roy has had 31, 41, 30 and 39 points the last four seasons with 15, 13, 14 and 15 goals.
Roy hovered around the 52 xG% mark during his time in Vegas but that has since cratered to 42.59% with the Leafs. However, this is mostly due to the Leafs as a whole doing horrendous as team as Craig Berube’s system relies on a dump and chase, cycling for low danger shots.
With Nic Roy locked up for another year after this at a 3M cap hit, I think it’s possible he gets a first-rounder like the Laughton trade last season. Right handed centres are valuable especially ones that have cup experience and know their roles down the lineup. If that’s the price…. I’d stay away unless it’s cheaper.
Charlie Coyle – Columbus Blue Jackets
The other player Bob could have been hinting at is current Jacket Charlie Coyle. Currently, CBJ is near the bottom of the East. Yes, they’re a few points out but many expected Columbus to take that next big step this season.
Up until 2024–2025, Coyle was an elite 3C and a good 2C during his time with Minnesota and the Boston Bruins. A very bad season for him and Boston in 2024 resulted him being sent to Colorado and then flipped to Columbus in the offseason after having one goal in seven games against the Dallas Stars.
Coyle does have some cup final experience, going in 2019 with the Bruins. He also loves to use his weight, throwing a hit 59 times that run. Over the last few playoffs he’s had 23 in seven games (2025), 59 in 13 games (2024) and 20 in seven (2023). Coyle also has some experience on the penalty kill and taking draws, clipping at a 50.5% clip this season. While not being an avid goal scorer, only scoring 20 or more twice in his career, Coyle’s been able to provide offence anywhere he goes. His underlyings are very solid as well. He has an xG rate of 53.44, HDCF% of 61.49 and a PDO boost of 1.021. He’s pushing play in the right way but is getting a bit lucky.
One poor thing on Coyle is his skating speed. Per NHL Edge is he ranked in the bottom 50 percentile in skating speed, and with him aging it’ll get worse. One good thing Coyle has is versatility. Coyle has played the RW a lot over his career and that could be a place he could play in Edmonton while RNH takes the 3C spot. With him being a UFA this offseason, the price should not be that high to acquire unlike a Nic Roy. Am I the only one getting Adam Henrique vibes from this?????
Forwards – Wingers
Jared McCann – Seattle Kraken
The most intriguing option for the Oilers to get at the deadline would be Kraken forward Jared McCann. McCann would check off the boxes off for the Oilers. Top-six winger? Check. Can play 3C? Check. Good defensively and can pinch in offence? Check. Affordable? Check. He has everything you need with the exception that he’s a left hand shot.
McCann, while not fast by any means, is a pretty solid skater. While being more of a winger now, he has shown to play centre when called upon. McCann has scored at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons, one of which included a 40–30–70 campaign. McCann’s been a major contributor of Seattle’s offence, particularly this season, carrying a 58.75 xG%. The Kraken as a whole have a xG% of 44.36. Without him, they are a lottery team.
McCann’s only played 11 games this season but has eight points. While I do believe that 40 goal season was a definitely a one-off, McCann can easily be a 55–60 point guy here while playing PP2 time. Would the Kraken send him to a divisional rival with another year? Hard to say, but McCann’s name has been out there for awhile now. For a team that desperately needs more scoring, McCann’s finishing history and his ability to drive offence would be a huge boost for Edmonton.
McCann’s history of finishing:
| Season | Expected Goals | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 (PIT) | 10.4 | 14 |
| 2021-22 (SEA) | 21.8 | 27 |
| 2022-23 | 20.4 | 40 |
| 2023-24 | 21 | 29 |
| 2024-25 | 22.7 | 22 |
| 2025-26 | 3.9 | 5 |
Time and time again, McCann has out performed his expected goals which indicate top-end finishing talent.
Bobby McMann – Toronto Maple Leafs
McMann is very interesting. He shows up as a very mediocre player 5v5 and eye test wise he doesn’t do a whole lot, but the dude can flat out skate like the wind and put the puck into the net. Per NHLEdge, McMann is ranked third in the league in max skating speed. While again his analytical numbers don’t look pretty, boasting a 46.7, 48.59 and a 49.7 xG% over the last three seasons, he’s always overpreformed those numbers where he has a 51.43, 60, and a 61.7 GF%. So certainly he’s not a negative out there if he has a history of outscoring the opposition majority of the time he’s out there. McMann also throws the body around, where he had 136 and 115 hits and is currently on pace for 150 this season.
Here is the history of McMann’s finishing:
| Season | Expected Goals | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 10.9 | 15 |
| 2024-25 | 17 | 20 |
| 2025-26 | 7.6 | 10 |
With McMann being a UFA at a very cheap cap hit and being an Alberta born kid, I don’t think it’s impossible to believe the Oilers would have interest in him, and from all regards I think it could be a very nice fit.
Michael Bunting – Nashville Predators
It would be so Oilers to continue to acquire former Leafs huh? Bunting has bounced around the league a lot since he left Toronto. Bunting did not really fit well in Carolina, only scoring 13 goals in 60 games, got flipped to Pittsburgh in the Guentzel trade, and seemingly found a role there. He was about point per game with 19 points in 21 games, but again struggled somewhat the next season. At the deadline, he was shipped to Nashville, where he’s been ever since.
This season has been very subpar once more for Bunting, only having scored nine goals and 10 assists through 38 games. A super streaky player. His best years were absolutely in Toronto where he had back-to-back 23 goal seasons which included a 63 and 50 point years. He thrives playing with the best players like Hyman. If he isn’t scoring, Bunting is there to absolutely piss off the opposition. A guy you’d love to have come the playoffs.
Bunting’s underlying numbers are all in the low 50’s so he’s pretty much an average third liner in this league. Being a UFA at a 4.5M cap hit, I think the price to obtain him would actually be pretty low. Maybe a third-round pick? I think I’d take that bet at a 50% retention.
Speaking of the Hyman comparison…. his finishing history really reminds me of Hyman.
| Season | Expected Goals | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 (TOR) | 25.2 | 23 |
| 2022-23 (TOR) | 28 | 23 |
| 2023-24 (CAR/PIT) | 24.9 | 19 |
| 2024-25 (PIT/NSH) | 25.2 | 19 |
| 2025-26 (NSH) | 9.6 | 9 |
Defence
John Marino – Utah Mammoth
This is the guy right here that will boost the D-Core a lot. This is the Ekholm Jr. that David Pagnotta is hinting about.
First off, yes, it would be funny if the Oilers brought in Marino considering they traded him back in 2019. However, Marino was close with the Chiarellis and was about to sign until Chiarelli was fired. With the backlog of RHD at the time which included Larsson, Bear, Benning and Bouchard, Marino believed he was better off elsewhere, and eventually landed with the Penguins.
Marino has been absolutely stellar throughout his career thus far. Whether it was in Pittsburgh, New Jersey or in Utah, Marino has always been a great 2nd pair RHD wherever he lands and has done some duty on the top pair as well.
Marino excels in pretty much every aspect of the game. He has a great first pass, leading to offence off the rush; his offensive zone playmaking is excellent, resulting in high-danger scoring chances. He can rush the puck up the ice and carry it into the zone; he’s great at defending the zone, allowing barely any entries. He’s also locked up for another year at a very modest cap hit.
Marino’s underlyings are also super strong.
| Season | CF% | GF% | xGF% | HDCF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 (PIT) | 50.13 | 56.41 | 54.23 | 54.38 |
| 2020-21 | 51.18 | 49.25 | 47.96 | 46.10 |
| 2021-22 | 51.81 | 50.00 | 51.53 | 52.50 |
| 2022-23 (NJ) | 52.81 | 54.32 | 53.77 | 54.05 |
| 2023-24 | 51.70 | 42.74 | 51.16 | 49.90 |
| 2024-25 (UTAH) | 53.64 | 54.44 | 54.12 | 53.88 |
| 2025-26 | 55.11 | 57.75 | 52.56 | 54.81 |
Marino’s best have also been playing with puck movers. Currently, he’s played the most with Nate Schmidt this season. That pair has a 59.3 xG%. Last season he played with Sergachev and had a 53.9 xG% with him.
With New Jersey, Marino played with Ryan Graves and Luke Hughes a lot and again was above 50% in xGoals with them.
In Pittsburgh, Marino played with Marcus Petttersson every year. In 2019–20, the pair had a 51 xG%, a 52.3% in 20/21 and a 52.71 xG%.
Marino would be an excellent fit next to Jake Walman.
Nick Perbix – Nashville Predators
Perbix was someone I wanted back in free agency and ended up signing with the Predators. Perbix is just a smart hockey player. He excels at generating offence for his team, a great breakout passer, retreives the puck well, defends the blueline, and can carry the puck out of the zone with ease. He’s like a mini John Marino but just worse than everything John does well.
He has no negative qualities to his game besides not playing a lot against tough competition and he’s super affordable having a 2.8M cap hit for another year after this. While Perbix is carrying a 47 xG% and below average possession metrics but again Nashville isn’t a strong team.
Will Borgen / Carson Soucy – NY Rangers
Bob talked about the New York Rangers quite a bit last week stating he thinks the Oilers could have interest in a defenceman not named Adam Fox. Really, only two names come to mind. Carson Soucy and Will Borgen. I highly doubt they’re trading Gavrikov who literally just signed there and he has a NMC.
I… really do not like the idea of the Oilers entertaining a trade for either of these two. Borgen kinda makes sense given his RH shot but that contract is bit rich and way too long. He’s a fine, physical third pair D but not much more than that.
Carson Soucy is someone the Oilers have liked for awhile. Back in 2022, they were considering a trade for him but turned their attention to Brett Kulak. Soucy had a really good stint in Vancouver but fell off a cliff in 24/25 and hasn’t really recovered since.
I put these guys in here since it was Bob speculating but I do NOT endorse this for what it’s worth. Stay away.
Justin Faulk – St. Louis Blues
Last on the list is Blues defender Justin Faulk. The Blues are open to firesale and Faulk’s name has been thrown around a lot.
Faulk is old and his contract is high in cap. Sure, there’s only another season left after this but there’s a lot of risk here. People will look at the offensive output he has this season with 10 goals and 10 assists 38 games in. That’s a mirage however, and the Blues likely know it too and are going to try to sell high on him.
Faulk has yet to have a season above 50 xG% since 2019–2020. The Blues possession stats have averaged in the mid 40’s since his arrival and have been constantly outscored when he’s on the ice. The same rings true for this sason.
DO NOT BUY HIGH! That is all, Stan.
Oilers final roster after the trade deadline
Going through all the options, I picked out the two players I think the Oilers SHOULD acquire: Jared McCann and John Marino. Marino at half retention would be dealt for prospect Beau Akey and the Oilers’ first-rounder in 2027 and probably a bit more picks for compensation for the retention. Janmark goes into the deal for cap reasons.
The deal for McCann would be something like probably someone like Mangiapane for cap reasons, the Oilers 1st round round pick in 2028, and their 2nd in 2026 and 2027. McCann comes in at 50% retention so a 2.5M cap hit.
Here’s the playoff gameday roster for the Oilers, which would fit under the cap hit at 91.5M.
McCann-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Frederic-RNH-Savoie
Henrique-Lazar-Kapanen
Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Marino
Nurse-Emberson/Stastney
Jarry
Ingram
Here, the forward group is balanced out, with probably a weak fourth line but Florida had three league min guys in back-to-back cup finals and did well so who really cares. The defence pairs are also nicely connected together. Is this too hopeful? Maybe. It’s definitely a best-case-scenario deadline, but if the Oilers are serious about winning, they’d go out and make the necessary moves to bring home the Cup.
