The Edmonton Oilers sit at 11-10-5. Two straight Stanley Cup Final appearances have done nothing to protect them from a season that has gone wrong in several places at once. Their longest win streak is 2 games, achieved on 3 separate stretches. The team that was supposed to contend for a championship has instead become a source of confusion for fans and analysts alike.
Rogers Place has seen some difficult nights. An 8-3 loss to the Dallas Stars on November 25 was among the worst. Stuart Skinner made 4 saves on 8 first period shots before being pulled. Calvin Pickard came in and stopped 18 more. The final score told the story, but the process of getting there was worse.
Coach Kris Knoblauch spoke to NHL.com after that game. “Right from the first shift, we were flat, we had the puck and made several plays, and then we ended up getting stuck in there, and that first shift was pretty much a precursor to how we played the rest of the game.”
The Goaltending Problem
Edmonton’s goaltending has been a sore point for most of the season. The tandem of Skinner and Pickard has produced a 3.54 goals against per game, which ranks as the league’s 4th worst. Skinner carries a 3.00 goals against average and an .885 save percentage on the year. Both numbers are below what a contending team needs from its starter.
Skinner has shown flashes. He recorded his second shutout of the season on November 29 against the Seattle Kraken, stopping 26 shots. He has won 6 of his last 9 starts, pushing his record to 9-7-3. The problem is that the peaks are separated by valleys that have cost the team points.
Connor McDavid addressed the goaltending situation in comments to NHL.com. “I really feel like goaltending is a team thing. It’s tough for goalies to look good when the group in front of them is not playing well. I don’t really care who it is, when the team in front of them is not playing up to their standards, then it is tough for a goalie to look good.”
Betting on a Slumping Contender
The Oilers’ 11-10-5 record has shifted their Stanley Cup odds considerably from preseason projections. Sportsbooks platforms in Alberta like DraftKings, and FanDuel have adjusted Edmonton’s lines accordingly, with the team now sitting as underdogs in matchups they would have dominated a year ago. Their 3.54 goals-against average makes betting the under on Oilers games a common play among bettors tracking defensive metrics.
Road performance offers another angle worth watching. Edmonton’s 5-8-3 away record suggests value in fading them outside Rogers Place, particularly against teams with strong goaltending.
A Defense That Has Given Up Too Much
The numbers are alarming. Edmonton gave up 8 or more goals in 2 of their last 3 home games before the Kraken shutout. Over those 3 games at Rogers Place, opponents scored 21 times against the Oilers. NHL.com noted that going back to 1996-97, only 2 other teams have allowed more than 21 goals over a span of 3 home games: the 2021-22 Detroit Red Wings and the 2023-24 San Jose Sharks.
The Oilers are 5-2-2 at home and 5-8-3 on the road. The home record looks respectable until you account for the blowout losses mixed in. On the road, the team has struggled to find consistency in any phase of play.
Injuries Have Hurt Depth
Zach Hyman missed the first 19 games of the season while recovering from a wrist injury he sustained in Game 4 of last year’s Western Conference Final against Dallas. Knoblauch confirmed before the season opener that Hyman would not be ready. “We’re thinking, guideline, probably around November 1,” he said in September. That timeline proved optimistic.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was sidelined starting November 8 with an undisclosed injury. Before going out, he had 16 points in 16 games, including 5 goals and 11 assists. He returned against Seattle on November 29 and contributed a goal and an assist in the 4-0 win.
Jack Roslovic is now out for 2 weeks after blocking a shot in the Dallas loss. He has 18 points in 23 games, with 10 goals and 8 assists. Losing him removes another scoring option from a lineup that has struggled for depth.
The Offseason Roster Changes
Edmonton lost pieces during the offseason that have been hard to replace. Evander Kane was traded to Vancouver for a pick on June 25. Viktor Arvidsson went to Boston for a pick on July 1. Corey Perry signed a 1 year contract with Los Angeles the same day. Connor Brown left for a 4 year deal with New Jersey.
Those departures removed physical play and veteran presence from the forward group. The Oilers expected younger players to fill those roles. Jeff Howard has a chance to slot into the top 6, but the transition has not been smooth.
Stars Still Producing
McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to perform at an elite level. McDavid has 16 points over an 8 game point streak, with 6 goals and 10 assists. Draisaitl has his own 8 game point streak, and his 15th goal of the season came in the win over Seattle. Last season, Draisaitl finished with 106 points in 71 games. McDavid had 100 points in 67 games.
McDavid leads the league in both 22-plus mph speed bursts, with 44, and 20-plus mph bursts, with 203. The athleticism is still there. The production is still there. The team results are not matching what the top players are putting in.
The 4-0 win over Seattle showed what the Oilers can do when things come together. McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman each had a goal and an assist. Skinner was sharp throughout. Draisaitl scored from the high slot with 7:30 left in the second period. The earlier 4-3 overtime win against Carolina featured McDavid with 2 goals and an assist and Draisaitl with the winner 19 seconds into overtime.
Those performances have been the exception rather than the norm.
What the Coach and Players Are Saying
Knoblauch has not hidden his concerns. “There are a lot of things I’m concerned about,” he said.
McDavid maintains that the team believes it can turn things around. “We’ve still got lots of confidence. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but there’s still an overarching belief that we’ll figure it out. Obviously, doesn’t look that way now, but at least I still feel it.”
Conclusion
The Oilers entered the season as Stanley Cup favorites with 2 of the best players in hockey. Through 25 games, they have a record that puts them 5th in the Pacific Division. The goaltending has been inconsistent, the defense has allowed too many goals, and injuries have stripped the roster of depth. McDavid and Draisaitl cannot carry the team alone. Edmonton needs its supporting cast healthy and its goaltenders to find stability. The talent remains in place to make a run, but the early returns have fallen well short of expectations.
