Here we are at the one fourteenth mark of the season. Any predictions I could make at this point are essentially useless, which is actually true about my predictions at any point during the season, so I’ll just try put together a general review of the season so far.
Statistics and a quick recap
The Edmonton Oilers have once again started this season slower than most fans would hope. Three straight losses to the New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils, and Detroit Red Wings have brought them to a 2–3–1 record. No sensible fan would panic six games into a 82-game season just like no sensible fan would put too much faith in statistics this early, but I’ve never been accused of being sensible, so I’m going to show some anyway. Here are some Oilers team stats and where they rank in the NHL in those areas:
| STAT | VALUE | NHL RANK |
| POINTS | 5 | 22nd |
| GF/GP | 2.50 | 29th |
| GA/GP | 2.83 | 19th |
| power play% | 17.7% | 20th |
| penalty kill% | 82.4% | 14th |
| 5v5 CF% | 48.77% | 18th |
| 5v5 SF% | 55.65% | 5th |
| 5v5 xGF% | 49.59% | 15th |
Obviously, these are pretty much what you’d expect so far for the Oilers—the only acceptable, and somewhat surprising stat is that they are still getting more shots than their opponents by a decent margin.
There are two clear statistical differences from this year to past years. First is the power play%. The last five years, the Oilers power play has averaged a 27.2% success rate. They did drop to a 23.7% last year but I would expect that to be an anomaly. A high powered offence like the Oilers simply cannot be held to under 18% for long though.
The second difference is the CF%. The Oilers, along with the Carolina Hurricanes have been high up on that list for the last five years or so. While there are questions about how important Corsi really is, it has been a part of Edmonton’s game and has always worked well for them and the Hurricanes.
Despite the poor Corsi, the Oilers are getting more shots than their opponents but just haven’t been capitalizing as evidenced by the poor GF rate. This, along with a PDO of 97.5% (PDO almost always trends towards 100% over time), and experience, suggest that the Oilers will likely turn thngs around, at least offensively.
Stats courtesy of NHL.com, Moneypuck.com, and Naturalstatrick.com
The big question marks
The most worrying thing I’ve seen so far from the Oilers, and again, it’s still very early, is a whole rinkful of stupid mistakes from the defence. Bad giveaways, lazy coverage, embarrassing falls, and just general poor play up and down the lineup have been worrying. According to NHL.com the Oilers have the fourth highest giveaways/60 in the league. Unfortunately the two defencemen who seem to be making the most errors are the two making the most money.
The second question mark plays immediately behind the first, and is exactly what you are expecting: goaltending. Except for the one goal in the first game against Calgary, Stuart Skinner has looked solid, and is putting up solid numbers (.910 Sv%, 2.23 GAA), but you couldn’t say that he has turned over a new leaf either.
At this point in the season, I think the defence is far more to blame for the goalies looking subpar, but based on the past, the goaltending seems the least likely to correct itself. Skinner and Calvin Pickard have shown twice now that they are good enough to get to the Stanley Cup Final, but they are just too inconsistent to inspire lasting confidence.
Connor Ingram is a possible solution to some of this uncertainty, and he had a great first start in the AHL with .955 Sv%, 1.0 GA. Ingram also represents a big question mark though. He has played solidly in the past, but not very longer than a year.
Looking forward to some positives
The good news for the Oilers is that they have done this many times before, they aren’t strangers to the slow start, and recently it hasn’t exactly held them back.
Guys like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl haven’t started slow, but the power play has, and that is one thing that needs to change for the Oilers to start winning more games.
There are some bright spots and pleasant surprises to look forward to on this team. First and foremost is Noah Philp, who has only played three games but has impressed me so far and has two goals already. Andrew Mangiapane looks exactly as advertised and is, in my opinion, exactly what one of the first two lines needs: a bull dog who can put the puck in the net. When the offence does get going, expect him to be a big part of it; I predict a career year in points. David Tomasek and Trent Frederic haven’t shown up much on the score sheet but I still like what I see from them, similar players to Mangiapane but a little less of a scoring touch.
The other piece of good news is that it looks like Jake Walman will be making his season debut soon. The Oilers could use his help on both sides of the ice frankly.
All said and done, my first impression of this team is that fundamentally they are very similar to last year. The defence and goaltending are inconsistent but the offence is still very capable, if off to a slow start.
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