Although Canada was victorious in the 4 Nations Face-off, and the overall NHL schedule was light, things have not gone well for Canadian NHL teams. It had been a strong season for the seven teams at the turn of the new year, but promise has turned to ash for several of them since.
Let’s take a look at the wreckage in this month’s edition of the Canadian Power Rankings.
Could the Montreal Canadiens be out of the playoff race?
The Montreal Canadiens are imbued with some clarity, with a number of high end young talents having strong seasons. The overall success remains elusive, though the Habs were able to put together some strong streaks. Already with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson and Ivan Demidov are full value as elite talents. Juraj Slafkovsky and David Reinbacher might not be as favoured, but are trending towards being key pieces to round out the group.
There might be something left to be desired from some of the projects that the Canadiens have taken on in recent years. Patrik Laine has had his usual ups and downs, but has a useful yet circumstantial game. Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach have not exactly taken over, blending into a muddied forward group more than they have asserted themselves as core pieces.
Like the Calgary Flames, the Habs decided to stay put this trade deadline. While this hardly maximizes assets for the future, with so many core players in the lineup a fighting chance is an important development opportunity. There is still time to trade, draft, and develop a winning team, but these high leverage situations cannot be bartered for. An unlikely underdog, the Habs have a chance to come of age. The playoff race is tight, and several Eastern Conference teams in their path have higher expectations among the public.
Calgary Flames in an unknown state
The Flames hot start has been all but extinguished as the team falters. Heading into the season many expected a continued rebuilding effort, selling off veterans in hope of improving their future. The early success might have wavered opinions here, but the lustre of victory is quickly fleeting. Ultimately, a future where the Flames can truly compete for a Stanley Cup involves acquiring and developing elite talents.
Historically the Flames have had an issue with finding a centre of such calibre, and a failure to bottom out makes finding one even less likely. Especially given the convoluted trade web that their own first-round pick is tied up in, keeping it, read finishing with a top 10 pick, is extremely important. For that reason, many fans hoping the team will rebuild aggressively are ardent in their beliefs. While simple in its reasoning, this desperation can lead to delusion. Yes, for some teams such strategies pay off, but others have been left with no team success for years at a time regardless of top draft talent.
To their credit, the Flames have managed to take steps forward in important areas. For one, it does appear that the Flames have some elite young talent to build around. Namely, Dustin Wolf and Zayne Parekh. Several of their other top young talents have shown impressive growth, like Connor Zary and Matthew Coronato. Over the past two seasons the future of the blueline has been bolstered, adding several notable pieces.
Perhaps most importantly the Flames have some young centres to work with. Zary is joined by Morgan Frost as a centre option behind Mikael Backlund and Nazem Kadri. Rory Kerins and Samuel Honzek might be options in the future as well. At the very least the Flames have a bit of flexibility in their lineup. The team still has two 1st round picks in each of the next two drafts as well. While none of these guarantee an elite centre, draft day trade ups are still possible as well.
As far as winning goes, the Flames have done well to provide the young players in their lineup with enough support to build their confidence. As the wheels start to fall off it would be prudent to move of some peripheral depth for some futures. In their stead a number of younger players are ready to test their mettle. Regardless, the Flames will need to find a way to add some potential star power to their system if they wish to spring themselves from mediocrity.
Vancouver Canucks still shaken up
As loud as the circus of their season has been, the deadline came and went quietly for the Vancouver Canucks. As much as the team has eroded in the last calendar year, there is still a lot to like. As sour as the mood has become, the team sits within striking distance of a playoff spot. More than a paradox or an oxymoron, the Canucks are a team with clear strengths and flaws.
The Canucks are a stout defensive team, but their already shaky offence has been dealt blow after blow this season. Their forward group has a lot to work with, mostly because of their collective physicality and defensive ability. Their centre ice position is greatly diminished, especially given Elias Pettersson’s recent struggles. In fact, Quinn Hughes’ transcendental play might be the only hope the Canucks have for a potent offence.
Their playoff experience might give them some confidence in the four team race for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot. Outside of that, there is not much to like about their chances. Morale is undoubtedly shaken, and the stakes are high. Their seemingly constant fluctuations over the Quinn Hughes era have made for a stressful fan experience.
With Hughes, the Canucks will never be far from a positive turnaround. Unfortunately, the shadow of disaster has never been far away either. The worry should be that the team has frayed, disintegrating through the dramas to the point that they can no longer compete. Thatcher Demko’s health is concerning, as is Brock Boeser’s pending UFA status. Still, the biggest issue might now be at centre, without many obvious answers outside of a return to form from Pettersson.
Ottawa Senators have a chance at playoffs
The Ottawa Senators are fighting for their playoff lives, and have stumbled over the past month. In large part, their injury issues have been difficult to overcome. Now enjoying some better health, the Sens are primed to play their best hockey and come away with a playoff berth.
The trade deadline brought some reshuffling, as lineup regulars Josh Norris and Jacob Bernard-Docker are gone, even if Dylan Cozens and Dennis Gilbert can fill in their place. Adding Fabian Zetterlund does make the team a bit deeper, a young and capable upgrade to their middle-six as a winger. Most of all, the team is playing much better defensively this season. Between the forward depth and the defensive structure, the team has rounded out some of its biggest faults.
At the very least, the Senators are playing in some meaningful hockey down the stretch. The expectation has long been higher, but regardless there has been a step forward this season. The Sens have no interest in such moralizing at this point, yet this level of success has remained elusive. There is definite upside within this roster, and the opportunity to make their first playoff appearance could springboard the team forward.
Toronto Maple Leafs prepared for another postseason
While the Toronto Maple Leafs have had strong regular season teams the last decade, this is the first time that this iteration of the team has been so close to an Atlantic Division title. The team’s personnel is beginning to reflect the philosophies of the current coach and GM. The Leafs play a more mature style of game each season, but now there is a greater emphasis on winning the tough ice.
Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo are clear examples of this change, bringing a much better balance of skills. Laughton joins the ever improving Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann, and John Tavares as heavy players who can carve out space to score in contested ice. Carlo joins Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe as solid defensive options. Of course, the goaltending being as solid as ever helps as well. The team is more complete before factoring in potential miracles from their elite players.
In the end it might not be enough, even despite the improvements. The Leafs have yet to prove anything in the playoffs, and have already lost series in which they were favoured before. Regardless of who the Leafs play in the first round victory should not be assumed. With Mitch Marner headed towards UFA status this summer, drama is inevitable. Life will come quickly, but Leafs are better prepared for the task at hand.
Winnipeg Jets vying for top of the league
The Winnipeg Jets have been pacing the league since the start of the season. A lot has gone well for the team in regular seasons past, yet their recent playoff appearances give reason for pause. For now, the team is riding a hot power play and goalie Connor Hellebuyck to victory. These players are allowed to succeed because of the Jets depth, diversity of skills, and team concept.
Solid and stout throughout, adorned by their scoring talent, the biggest area of concern has been the penalty kill. Despite Hellebuyck backstopping the unit, the Jets penalty kill got off to a poor start. Adding Luke Schenn and Brandon Tanev will help the team in this area, though the Jets had already begun improving. A quality penalty kill is essential to the Jets ability to win in the playoffs, allowing Hellebuyck a chance to steal games. Giving away goals easily would ruin their otherwise stingy defences.
At the very least the Jets core players have shown the ability to win in the playoffs before. The recent defeats have been rather unceremonious, even going back to a sweep at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens in the short lived North Division. With only one series win since their trip to the Western Conference final in 2018, the Jets have not fared well.
The strength of their division rivals, namely the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche, would both be titanic first round matchups should they fall off the top spot. Still, the President’s Trophy is hardly a good omen, and a first-round series against a scrappy wild card team should not be taken for granted.
Can the Edmonton Oilers win the division?
Of the top end Canadian NHL teams, the Oilers might have had the least celebrated deadline. Fans hoping for a goalie or a defensive defenceman were left wondering as the team added forward depth and an offensive defencemen instead. Some awful play out of the 4 Nations Face-off break has made the mood foul across Oil Country.
Of course, the team is better than they have shown of late. The slow restarts are annoying at face value, but given the team’s history here it is worrying. A terrible start to last season got their coach fired, the playoffs looking uncertain well into February of 2024. Eventually, a slow start to the Stanley Cup Final saw them down three games to none in the series. Both times they battled back, earning a chance at a game seven.
Ultimately, the Oilers fell behind in that decisive game, and finally it was too much to overcome. A slow start to this season happened, and now this post 4 Nations lull. It does not seem for a lack of motivation or intention, yet there is a troubling pattern that does not seem to be corrected at all. Ultimately, the harshest critics might suggest that the Oilers are not as good as last season.
No playoff victory should be taken for granted, and the Oilers have another gruelling path ahead of them. Though the Los Angeles Kings, Vancouver Canucks, and Dallas Stars were vanquished, the path might include the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, and Florida Panthers who bested the Oilers. At their best the Oilers are still the class of the Canadian NHL teams, both in terms of their work this season and the reputation they have built prior.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
