Do you feel out of touch in the fast paced world of sports betting? Do you wipe away a tear as your friends ridicule you mercilessly when you ask if you should put 20 bucks on Connor McDavid to win the puck line? Do you cower with fear while slowly flipping over your bar tab, hoping beyond hope that it’s under $13 because you don’t make any money betting on hockey?
Well today is your lucky day, because I can help you with the first one.
I would like to prepend this article by stating that I don’t know the secret of sports betting but if I did I wouldn’t tell you, so you should still read the article just in case I’m lying and do know the secret and spill the beans later. The secret lies in statistical analysis of the odds and unemotional betting. Humans are very emotional though and making money is only half the fun, decidedly less than half since sports betting is a huge business which means far, far more people are losing money from sports betting than they are making money. People bet on sports because it ratchets up the excitement of watching sports to a whole new level. It’s like every game is your favourite team in a playoff game.
The basics of odds
First thing to understand are the odds, which are presented, in my opinion, in close to the silliest way possible. If Edmonton is playing Calgary, and Edmonton is -200 to win and Calgary +150 to win, then the oddsmakers think Edmonton is going to win, Edmonton is the favourite, and Calgary is the underdog. The lower the odds of an event occurring (here Edmonton winning), the more likely the oddsmakers think it is to occur. If Edmonton was -700 to win, they would be extremely heavy favourites to win.
The odds don’t just tell who is the favourite and the underdog, they also tell you how much money you will win if you bet successfully. If the odds are negative, like Edmonton -300 to win, you have to bet $300 to win $100; if you bet $1, you’ll only win 33 cents. You don’t win nearly as much as you bet because Edmonton probably will win, or so the oddsmakers think.
If the odds are positive, like Calgary +150 to win, you have to bet $100 to win $150, if you bet $1, you’ll win $1.50. You win more than you bet because Calgary will probably lose.
The basic bets
There are three main ways to bet on a game from the team perspective: the moneyline, the over/under, and the puckline, more generally called the point spread. Don’t ask me why they are named that way, I don’t really like it either. These are pretty much universal across the different sports though they may be called different things.
The first and most simple is the the money line, plain and simple, just bet on who you think will win the game. The odds will be offered as explained above.
Next, the over/under, is also pretty simple. All you’re doing is betting on how many total goals you think will be scored in a game. If the over/under is set at 5.5 and you bet the under, you will win if five or fewer goals are scored. If you bet the over, you will win if six or more goals are scored. If the over/under is set at an integer, like six, and exactly six goals are scored you’ll just get your money back. I’m not a huge fan of betting on the over/under though as, even though the winner of the game is difficult to predict, the most common total number of goals scored in a game is supported by a LOT of data. The most common are five and six which is why the over/under is often set at 5.5. For you as the bettor, betting the over/under set at 5.5 is statistically pretty much a 50/50 chance. In my experience it’s very difficult to predict and not likely to lead to consistent cheddar.
The puckline is a little more complicated, but not so bad. It is established that one team will be the favourite, the puckline asks by how much will the favourite win. If Edmonton is -1.5 (by far the most common puckline) it means that they are favoured to win by two or more goals. If Calgary is +1.5 it means they are favoured to lose by two or more. If you bet on Edmonton to win in this scenario then you will win the bet if Edmonton wins by two or more, if you bet on Calgary at +1.5, you will win the bet if Calgary wins or if Edmonton wins by only one. If the puckline were set at 2.5, Edmonton would have to win by three or more to cover (cover means to win the bet for you), and Calgary to win or lose by less than two to cover.
Futures and parlays
Futures are bets that won’t be settled for some time. Like Oilers to win the Stanley Cup which is currently set at +800 (they are the favourites). Or Oilers to win the division which is currently set at a paltry +100, or Oilers to make the playoffs, currently at -1200. Futures are extremely dangerous. What may seem like a sure thing is often more difficult than it seems, it requires many things to go right. In order for the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup, and assuming they make the playoffs (which is admittedly, essentially a guarantee) they have a 1/16th chance of winning which is 6.25%. You have a 6.25% chance of winning that bet. That just isn’t worth the odds they are giving. Even looking at winning the division: if I was forced to bet then absolutely I’d bet on the Oilers and it seems so certain but a 1/8th chance is 12.5%, even if you limit it to the three or four teams that have a chance to win the division, you’re still looking at 25% or 33% and that’s still not great. The illusion of certainty and the hope a fan has for their own team are preyed upon by the sports betting companies with futures. Another thing to remember with futures is that after that money is bet, it becomes uncertain, if you had put it in the bank or invested it, it would make money for you, the same is true for betting, but only if you win.
To parlay several bets just means to bundle them all up into one singular bet. If each individual bet (called a leg) in the parlay hits (wins) then you win, but if even one of the individual bets doesn’t hit, then you don’t win. The odds will get better in your favour as you parlay more things together but only because the more legs you string together, the more likely the parlay is to lose. I admit this is a really exciting way to bet, can potentially win you a LOT of money, and feels incredible when it hits but far, far more often it doesn’t hit. As a general rule of thumb, you should stay away from bets that require a lot of things to go right in order to succeed.
Some personal thoughts
I stated previously that I didn’t know the secret of betting and I certainly don’t, but I suspect it lies with the basic moneyline. Have you ever been in an NHL playoff draft where you picked 20 or so players and whoevers 20 players get the most summed points wins? All it would take to guarantee a win would be to properly predict the series winners and length of series, and for the order of the players’ PPG game ranking to stay consistent to what it was in the regular season. The second half, players scoring at the same rate as they did in the regular season, is pretty common, especially amongst the top point scorers. Accurately predicting who will win and in how many games is really, really hard.
The interesting thing is that, disregarding any conspiracy theories, the oddsmakers can’t predict who will win any more accurately than you can. Hockey is an incredibly unpredictable game. I may very well track how often the odds-on favourite in an NHL game is the winner this season. The odds are likely to be based on position in the rankings, team goals against and goals for averages, and any major injuries. How often does an underdog team beat the favourite? It isn’t common if the first placed team is playing the 32nd. But the 20th playing the 10th? that’s not so uncommon. The underdog is often the better bet, and the uncertainty of hockey is a heavy advantage to the bettor.
The puckline is also a very interesting idea. In the money line there are only two outcomes, one team wins or they lose. Statistically speaking, that’s 50/50. The pucklines brings the betting down to the level of goals. The number of possible outcomes explode, even though the only ones you care about are you winnning and you losing. If a game of hockey was played first team to three goals wins, and Edmonton was -1.5 on the puckline, Calgary +1.5 then there are only three out of 12 (25%) outcomes where Edmonton covers the puckline. Now if the game were played first to five with the same puckline, Edmonton would cover in 10 out of 30, 33%. As the limit of goals scored increases, so do the odds of the favourite to cover. Obviously there is not limit to how many goals can be scored but as I stated previously, four to seven goals are most common, which means the underdog, statistically, has good odds of covering.
It is important to remember that that is statistically, meaning assuming that both teams have the same chances of winning, which they don’t. Some things to remember with the puckline though: If you see a puckline set over 1.5, take a very serious look at it. Unless it’s first place team against a 32nd place you should probably but some money on the underdog, you will likely make less money on the puckline because the goal is to even the odds but money is money. Second is be very careful betting on the favourite, statistically, they are disadvantaged.
Even though it seems crazy, you can bet on a game that is already being played, however the odds will be adjusted as the game goes on, according to how the game is going. When an underdog scores first, or leads in any fashion, they often become the favourite, even if they started the game as heavy underdogs. I have won more than a few dollars betting on a high scoring team that went down one or two early.
Some Oilers bets to keep in mind
I’ll stick to team bets for now and focus on the Oilers. There aren’t a lot of team bets to be made yet and most of them are futures or preseason games. I know I said that futures are dangerous and they are, the odds just are not ever in our favour on futures, but sports betting is also about fun so it’s probably ok to throw down some money on the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup at +800. Those still aren’t great odds considering what has to happen but you still make eight times what you bet so it’s not bad. Personally I’m going to wait until the Oilers hit a slump and the odds get a little better before I bet. If they never hit a slump the odds won’t get much worse than now (at the end of last year the Dallas Stars were favourites to win at +700) but if they hit a slump they could get over +1000.
Oilers to win the Presidents Trophy at +600 isn’t bad either, probably wouldn’t put down a lot of money on that though.
Oilers to make the playoffs at -1200 is awful odds, but it’s basically free money so you can’t be too angry about it.
Oilers to win the division at +100, again not great odds but will probably hit.
I don’t like a lot of the other team bets being offered personally, although there is Oilers over 120 points at +600, low odds considering how rarely 120 points is broken but it could be worth it to bet a little.
Tips to remember
Here are my parting tips and things to remember:
- Hockey is an unpredictable sport, and over a decent number of bets, that favours the bettor.
- Look for bets where it makes some sense to bet on the underdog— the oddsmakers don’t know who will win any better than you do, and the underdog will pay out better. The odds they are giving do not accurately reflect the actual likelihood of the outcome.
- Avoid bets where many things have to go right, or at least be careful how much you bet.
Remember folks, Vincent Van Gogh, Fyodor Dostoevsky, and Rene Descartes were all serious gamblers. Even George Washington put down pence on the ponies. Gambling won’t ruin your life, and even if it does, you can just use the eye-opening experience to create great works of art and make a tremendous financial comeback. Besides, you work hard, you deserve to have some consequence-free fun.
DISCLAIMER: The above paragraph is entirely satirical and should not be used as an excuse to yourself or anyone else for gambling. Use your money for important priorities before gambling and don’t spend money you don’t have.
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