Every year we see a number of players fail to meet their fantasy output from the prior season. The term regression links closely with age, injury, and situation in the sport of hockey. Regardless of the reason for a player to regress, the outcome represents a land mine in the fantasy landscape. Specifically on draft day.
When making a case for a player to regress, it’s nice to be able to provide some supporting analytics to bolster your perspective. Sometimes a player will have enjoyed a career season playing on the team’s top power play unit. In other cases they may have benefitted from being moved up the depth chart due to injured team mates.
Most commonly though, a player who’s suggested as a regression candidate will offer some outlying statistical production the year prior. Look for career best marks in shooting percentage, high danger chances, or even the percentage of points coming from power play situations.
A fitting example to revisit is the 2023–24 season of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Our beloved Nuge went from scoring 104 points in 2022–23 to scoring 67 points in 2023–24. This outcome left fantasy managers reeling after they had invested a top-36 pick to select him in fantasy drafts.
What didn’t catch savvy managers by surprise was that he had produced at a career best 1.27 PPG pace with an 18.4 S%, much higher than his career 0.79 PPG / 12.0S% career average.
So who might we shine a light on for this year’s draft you ask?
Sam Reinhart (C,RW) FLA – 2023–24 rank eighth
Prior to the 2023–24 season, Sam Reinhart had never scored more than 33 goals. His career best shooting percentage: 19.2. So when he led the Florida Panthers with 57 goals and a 24.5 shooting percentage it took the fantasy community by surprise.
We’re going to couple the Stanley Cup hangover with these career best marks and place our expectations back into check for 2024–25. Do I think he can hit 40 goals? Yes. But I won’t be investing an early second-round pick on Reinhart.
Instead, I recommend making a safer choice on a player of similar ADP like Brady Tkachuk who’s production value is insulated by the variety of categories in which he excels.
Filip Forsberg (LW) NSH – 2023–24 rank 12th
As a huge fan of Filip Forsberg’s playing style, this note pains me to write. 2023–24 was the first full season that Forsberg has played since 2016–17. Forsberg set career highs with 48 goals and 32 power play points while adding an impressive 141 hits.
Steven Stamkos comes in having scored 40+ goals in two of his last three seasons for the Lightning, many of those from the LW position. We should expect that his arrival signals a larger split for offensive opportunity and production. Forsberg will be hard pressed to maintain the same role as he saw in 2023–24.
Roman Josi (D) NSH – 2023-24 rank 18th
Outside of Cale Makar, this is the top defensemen on most managers draft boards. Roman Josi has provided incredible stat lines across a variety of categories over the past three seasons. Now at age 34, the point of decline is nearing.
With Nashville having added two top-six forwards over the off season, your league mates will be poised to pick Josi at or before his late third round ranking. This is a prudent time to pivot towards a younger, ascending player like Evan Bouchard who’s offensive output could match or exceed that of Josi in 2024–25.
MacKenzie Weegar (D) CGY – 2023–24 rank 36th
Weegar broke out in 2023–24 scoring 20 goals, besting his previous career high of eight. Along with those exciting offensive contributions came career highs in shots on goal, hits, blocks and power play points. The combination of those impressive output’s shot Weegar inside the top 50 fantasy rankings.
What’s concerning for Weegar’s fantasy value heading into 2024–25 is the state of the Calgary Flames, who are rooting deeper into the rebuild cycle by the week. His only hope to repeat the success he saw last year, is if the Flames are able to trade him well in advance of the trade deadline.
Sergei Bobrovsky (G) FLA – 2023–24 rank 17th
Bobrovsky will start the 2024–25 season at 36 years of age. He is coming off a Stanley Cup winning season in 2023–24 where he played deep into the spring months shortening his recovery period for the second straight year. His cumulative workload has been as tremendous as his performance level, the latter of the two drawing the heavier of focus.
It would be realistic for Florida Panthers to reduce Bobrovsky’s 58 games started mark towards 50 as they look to preserve his health for another playoff run. Let your league mates jump to draft Bobrovsky at or ahead of his ADP on draft night while you focus on options like Stuart Skinner and Thatcher Demko.
We’ve reviewed some outstanding players in this week’s article. It’s important to keep context in sight as we recognize that many of these players will be quite successful again in the coming season. We simply want to pivot our thinking from the expectation of similar outcomes, going forward. While we look to keep ourselves on the right side of the trend line, we will take our lumps in our misses.
