Although the Edmonton Oilers are impossibly close to the upper limit of the NHL’s salary cap—with some key RFAs left to sign no less—there might still be room for another signing. Not only are we aware that this is the case, but Oilers GM Ken Holland admitted as much in his post free agency availability. Holland got even more specific, mentioning that a fourth line centre might still be an area that the Oilers are targeting to complete their ideal NHL roster with 13 forwards, seven defencemen, and two goalies.
We should not be holding Holland to those comments too closely, after all a number of unexpected players remain on the free agent market, and the Oilers are surely looking for any upgrade that might be available. However, among the players still available is one that stands out from the rest, Jonathan Toews. For his part, Toews is largely rumoured to be retiring, but perhaps the right set of circumstances might yet lure his services. As it stands, Toews is yet to officially retire, meaning there is, theoretically, some chance he decides to keep playing.
On top of filling the fourth line centre role, if not more, Toews would seem to make a good fit with the Oilers. Let’s explore what such a concept would entail.
Toews’ recent issues
Toews is one of the more accomplished players in the history of the NHL. He has a long track record of on ice excellence while the recent years have been less kind to Toews.
Toews suffered a long battle with long COVID as well as chronic immune response syndrome, as much of the past four years have been quite obscured by questions of if Toews could play again. While his health status would understandably hinder his performance, as would the time off, so too would his advancing age, not to mention the increasingly feeble state of the Chicago Blackhawks lineup.
Toews’ offensive production has taken a nosedive, but he still appears to have a positive effect on his team generating offence. Toews’ defensive metrics have plummeted, as did every they for every forward near the top of the Blackhawks lineup.
Cap hit
This parameter goes for the “fourth line centre” venture, as well as any acquisition that the Oilers make under their current cap situation, but the Oilers can barely afford a league minimum cap hit. Any player coming into the team at this point would almost assuredly have to come in at less than $1M against the cap.
Toews is coming off of a long contract with a $10.5M cap hit. Nowhere near as effective a player as he once was, Toews will be taking a significant pay decrease if he returns to action in this upcoming NHL season.
Having made a lot of money over his career, and after several recent seasons toiling with a subpar Blackhawks team, it is quite possible, perhaps even likely, that Toews would be more concerned with which team he signed with rather than for how much money. This could benefit the Oilers, although only Toews can say for certain.
There are, of course, many other NHL teams with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations in 2023–24. If the chance to win is a reason that Toews might choose the Oilers, it must be conceded that virtually every other contending team has the same appeal. The Oilers do employ Toews’ former teammate Duncan Keith in hockey operations, a fact that, speculatively, would at least help the Oilers’ cause. There might be some appeal to playing in Canada, though in this sense Toews’ hometown Winnipeg Jets might have the upper hand.
Lineup fit in Edmonton
Given all of these factors, it is fairly expected that Toews did not perform up to high standards in many aspects over the past few seasons. With his decorated career and health status, it is not that surprising that Toews’ future playing career is not to be presumed. If, however, Toews did return to the NHL, it would not be out of the question that his performance is improved. If Toews were to join the Oilers bottom-six forwards, presumably as a “fourth line centre”, the group as a whole would be appreciatively stronger.
For the sake of a thought process, let’s imagine that the Oilers decide to keep the line of Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Derek Ryan together. The trio were extremely effective in their time together last season, forming a solid checking line. A line with Toews at centre could earnestly push the Foegele-McLeod-Ryan group for minutes, especially when we consider who the linemates might be.
It’s not difficult to imagine that younger players such as Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie would benefit from playing on a line with Toews. Likewise, a line with Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown might be a formidable checking line in its own right.
For those who like to compare to the reigning Stanley Cup Champions, the Vegas Golden Knights used a “fourth line” of William Carrier, Nicolas Roy, and Keegan Kolesar through much of the season. Don’t be fooled by the numeration, this line is strong enough to be labeled a “third” just as well. The moral is that the Oilers should strive for enough depth to have competition between all the lines on their team, should they so choose.
At any rate, Toews would almost certainly command usage in specific situations within games, late defensive zone faceoffs, and penalty kill duties among them. Perhaps with a decreased amount of icetime, a lower quality of competition, and a higher level of team can combine to better support Toews’ play. The occasional shift higher in the lineup is inevitable, but it might be a bit much to think that Toews can be a regular contributor in the top-six at this point.
Time will tell what Toews decides for next season, but clearly he would augment the lineup. There might not be another centre that would sign with the Oilers at such a low price on the open market at this point. There might be some impactful wingers available, and despite the Oilers expressed desire for a centre we can see how a quality NHLer would strengthen the Oilers forward group.
