I need to preface this article by stating that this title was inspired by a line that Ken Reid, a SportsNet host, dropped Tuesday night after the Edmonton Oilers beat the Florida Panthers. He then proceeded recapping the game like he didn’t just drop a literary pearl on all of us on par with William Shakespeare. I don’t remember the exact line in it’s entirety but he used it when describing Connor Brown’s shorthanded game opener and it serves as an excellent reminder to all of us that the outcome of a hockey game is largely swayed by hard work.
Those of us who enjoy applying stats to hockey are consistently frustrated by the results as we are still looking for a stat that captures the essence of a winning hockey team. While a mathematician who had never seen a hockey game would conclude that the game must include a healthy portion of luck, we who watch, play, and love the game know that what appears to be luck is actually the blood, sweat and tears of the players who simply refuse to lose.
That has been the case with the Oilers these past two games. They are simply moving faster and working harder than the Panthers and that has been reflected on the scoreboard.
The Oilers astounding penalty kill
The last two games of the Stanley Cup Final have been some of the most exciting games of the playoffs, or at least they have been if you aren’t a Panthers fan. One of the most electrifying parts of the Oilers playoff performances, and particularly the last two performances, has been the penalty kill.
The Oilers as a team are touting an astounding 93.9% PK. NHL.com doesn’t have stats for PK% earlier than 1978, but since that year no team has ever had a better PK% over at least 15 playoff games played. I’d be willing to bet that if they recorded those stats further back than ’78 then that record would stretch back just as far. The Oilers also had an incredible penalty kill streak of 34 which is approximately as long as my record for jumping jacks in a row, so we both have something to brag about.
The Oilers have a number of good penalty killers; of the forwards, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets the most ice time on the penalty kill but Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan, and Adam Henrique are all solid penalty killers. The pair that has been justifiably in the spotlight recently though, is Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown.
The duo have played together for 25.5 minutes and, in that time, have posted some nearly unbelievable numbers. They are in the upper echelon in Corsi For % at %19.61, but are far and away the best among duos with significant time together in shots for percentage at 33.3%. That means that when Janmark and Brown are killing a penalty, one third of all shots taken are taken by an Oiler. When you think about it, it seems like it shouldn’t be possible.
The pair have a shots against/60 minutes of only 28.92 which translates into only 0.96 shots per 2 minutes. That means that if they killed one whole two minute penalty, and they never got tired, they wouldn’t be expected to give up even one shot on average. So they are both limiting shots effectively and actively taking shots.
Unbelievable play by the duo
Yet these are not even the most impressive stats concerning Janmark and Browns penalty killing. They have a 20.9% share of expected goals and a whopping 75% share of goals for. This means that in these playoffs they have given up only one goal on the penalty kill while having now scored three goals short handed. The Oilers only have three short handed goals total this post season. Janmark and Brown were on the ice for all three.
If you had to list one area where hard work can make the biggest difference in a hockey game, you’d say the penalty kill. It’s nothing but stops and starts, blocked shots, and fierce corner battles. Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark are showing us all just how much hard work can influence the outcome of a hockey game.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
